And just like that, we’re back for Week 7 of the NFL season. The Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints have the honor of kicking off this week’s action with what should be an enticing Thursday night football contest. After spending two weeks in London, the Jags were back stateside last week, knocking off the Indianapolis Colts in convincing fashion. Conversely, the Saints suffered their third loss over the past four games, dropping a 20-13 decision to the upstart Houston Texans. Neither team can afford to lose ground in their tighter-than-expected division races, ensuring fans are treated to an entertaining inter-conference battle tonight.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Jaguars-Saints NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Calvin Ridley Lower 53.5 Receiving Yards
All the talk around Jacksonville this offseason was about how Calvin Ridley would transform the Jags’ passing game. Ridley burst onto the scene with a solid opening week, following that up with four tepid performances since then. That downward trajectory will likely continue against one of the top passing defenses in the NFL.
Ridley’s metrics have looked uninspired lately. The former first-round pick has been held to 40 yards or fewer in four of his past five outings, but his issues extend well beyond obtaining yardage.
Trevor Lawrence continues to pepper Ridley with targets, throwing his way seven or more times in four of the last five weeks for an average of 6.6 per game. However, Ridley has caught more than four passes just once, for a disappointing 54.5% catch rate. Surely, those coin-flip odds will take a hit against a formidable Saints’ secondary.
Collectively, New Orleans is limiting opponents to just 182.0 passing yards per game, fifth in the NFL, and a 55.9% catch rate, second-best in the league. Opponents are having an even harder time moving the ball more recently, with the Saints limiting teams to 175.7 passing yards per game over their previous three.
Don’t expect Lawrence and the Jaguars to build any momentum via the passing game. The Saints have been one of the best defending teams in the NFL, and a short week could compromise Jacksonville’s chances. Consequently, Ridley should stay beneath his receiving yards projection.
Travis Etienne Higher 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Our first two plays don’t correlate together, but there is some overlap in the Venn Diagram. The Jaguars have turned to Travis Etienne much more frequently this year, relying on their running back more than any other team. Etienne leads the league in rushing attempts and should maintain that workload on the road on a short week.
Through three games, Etienne is one of only three players in the NFL with more than 100 rushing attempts. His 113 lead the league, working out to an average of 18.8 per game. Moreover, he’s recorded at least 18 in all but one of his outings this season, topping 20 in two of his last three.
Etienne’s volume should hold steady against the Saints. New Orleans doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses defensively, but they have been prone to the run. Last week, three different rushers broke off runs of at least 10 yards, which is identical to the success the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers had a few weeks prior.
Jacksonville is emphasizing possession and clock control this year, leaning into Etienne and their rushing attack. We’re anticipating a similar approach in Week 7, as they try to wear down the hosts on a short week. As such, Etienne should earn a heavy enough workload to surpass 16.5 rushing attempts against the Saints.
Alvin Kamara Higher 4.5 Receptions
Seven years into his NFL tenure, Alvin Kamara has still got it. The five-time Pro Bowler is an every-down back for New Orleans, making plays in the passing and rushing attacks. Getting Kamara the ball will be a priority again on Thursday night as the Saints look to exploit a vulnerable Jaguars’ passing defense.
Kamara has had no fewer than 24 touches in any of his three outings this season, with many of those coming via the pass. The 28-year-old had an insane 13 catches in his first game of the season in Week 4, hauling in three and seven passes in each of the next two weeks after that. More impressively, Kamara has missed only two of his targets this season for a Pro Bowl-worthy 92% catch rate.
Jacksonville has a very loose standard when it comes to defending against the pass. They rank second-last in yards and completions allowed, giving up 270.3 and 25.3, respectively. Further, opposing running backs have accounted for a lot of the damage. On Sunday, Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss combined for 11 catches and 84 yards. Similarly, the Buffalo Bills running backs combined for five, the Atlanta Falcons for six, and the Texans for five in the preceding weeks.
The temptation may be to keep the ball on the ground, but the Saints’ best chance of winning comes from putting the ball in Kamara’s hands through the air. Look for him to end the day with five or more receptions.
Alvin Kamara Higher 0.5 Rushing+Receiving Touchdowns
Building off our last play, we’re also backing Kamara to go higher than 0.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns. The Saints running back has fallen well off his usual production, making progression inevitable.
From 2017 through 2020, Kamara accounted for 58 touchdowns, going off for 13 or more in three of the four seasons. In the three years since then, Kamara has barely combined to match that number, scoring 14 TDs since 2021.
Injuries have impacted his availability slightly, but Kamara has maintained his usual production across the entire seven years. Over that stretch, Kamara has totaled 1,330 scrimmage yards every year, recording at least 201 touches per season.
Given his consistent production, we would anticipate stronger output from Kamara. He may only have one score this season, but Kamara should progress and start having more luck in finding the endzone. With a bevy of touches expected against the Jaguars, we’re betting Kamara gets on the scoreboard with another touchdown.
