As usual, Week 6 concludes with Monday night football, which will hopefully be better than the primetime contests earlier in the week. Fans were treated to two mostly uninspired games that saw a combined 50 points scored between the Thursday and Sunday night showdowns. Thankfully, the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers can reverse that trend, unleashing their top players in what should be a much higher-scoring contest. At least, that’s what’s reflected in our prop picks for tonight’s interconference battle.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Cowboys-Chargers NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Joshua Palmer Higher 43.5 Receiving Yards
Inevitably, the absence of Mike Williams was going to hurt the Chargers; however, Joshua Palmer has certainly softened that blow. Even before Williams went down with a season-ending ACL injury, Palmer was taking a bigger piece of the target share pie. He’ll continue that upward trajectory against the Cowboys.
After seeing only one target in a season-opening shootout, Palmer’s role has continued to grow. In each of the subsequent weeks, the third-year pro’s targets have crept up to five, seven, and eight, respectively. Further, he’s been on the field for more snaps, playing a season-best 86.2% in Week 4. Given his history, Palmer should maintain that workload for the remainder of the season.
We’ve seen similar fluctuations in Palmer’s workload with either Williams or Keenan Allen out of the lineup. At the start of last year, when Allen was out, Palmer was a primary weapon in the Chargers’ game plan. In 11 starts last year, Palmer averaged 7.2 targets per game, resulting in 47.8 yards and 4.6 receptions. In his lone start this year, Palmer set season benchmarks in targets, yards, and snap count.
It’s evident that Palmer’s workload increases in the starting lineup. We’re expecting him to remain a priority, surpassing his 43.5 receiving yards prop against a beatable Cowboys’ secondary.
Brandin Cooks Higher 36.5 Receiving Yards
As we’ve seen in the early part of the 2023 season, the Chargers have a leaky secondary, allowing opponents to exploit their passing game. Heading into tonight’s contest, LA ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 299.8. We’re expecting the Cowboys to add to that misery, turning to their secondary contributors to rack up yards. Among those is Brandin Cooks, who remains a solid secondary pass-catcher.
Irrespective of the team, Cooks has been one of the most reliable pass-catchers since landing in the NFL. The former first-round draft pick has a career 65% catch rate, starting 124 of his 136 appearances. Granted, his metrics have dipped since he landed in the Lone Star State, but that hasn’t stopped Dak Prescott from throwing his way.
So far this season, Cooks has started all four games for the Cowboys, getting targeted at least four times in each contest. He’ll likely take on an increased workload on Monday as Dallas plays to the Chargers’ weakness in prime time.
It’s time for Cooks to reverse course on his bumpy start. Moreover, he’s a natural progression candidate, as his 47.4% catch rate is well below career averages and expected values. The Chargers have a very welcoming secondary, which should allow Cooks to exceed his 36.5 receiving yard prop.
Austin Ekeler Higher 49.5 Rushing Yards
Over the past few seasons, Austin Ekeler has established himself as a premier offensive playmaker in the NFL. The Chargers running back has surpassed 1,500 yards from scrimmage in three of the past four seasons, including 1,943 rushing yards since the start of the 2021 campaign.
An ankle injury has kept Ekeler out since the opening week, but he will be making his triumphant return on Monday Night Football. Oddsmakers have set his rushing yards prop too low, leaving an in-road for bettors looking to see Ekeler excel.
In their season-opening loss to the Miami Dolphins, Ekeler went off for 117 rushing yards on 16 carries. It wouldn’t shock us to see him match that energy against a more porous Cowboys rushing defense. At 123.4, Dallas allows the 11th-most rushing yards per game, putting them behind the Dolphins at 114.5. As expected, those metrics look much worse on the road, with the Cowboys getting torched for an average of 166.7 rushing yards per game as the visitors.
Even if he’s not at 100%, there’s a substantive edge in expecting Ekeler to go higher than 49.5 rushing yards. Over the past few seasons, he’s averaging 57.1 rushing yards per game, aligning more closely with our player prop projections which put him at 54.0.
The bye week may have been needed to work Ekeler back into game shape, but not even an ankle injury could slow him down against the Cowboys.
