The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryce Miller (R) $9,700 Seattle Mariners (+112) at New York Yankees
Every team in baseball is active today, but most of the strongest pitching can be found on the early slates. The main/evening group of games looks much better for hitters than pitchers. The highest-projected starter is Seattle’s Bryce Miller, who barely cracks 15 DraftKings points with his median projection.
As always, the goal in DFS is simply to outscore your opponents, not to reach some arbitrary point total that “should” be required to win a slate. In that sense, Miller is the best option because he’s somewhat likely to be the highest-scoring arm on the six-game slate. It’s not an especially comfortable selection at his price tag, though, with Vegas installing Seattle as an underdog and the Yankees implied for 4.6 runs.
Even with Aaron Judge still absent from the lineup, New York features a potent offense, especially against right-handed pitching, with four of its first five hitters batting left-handed. This game is also in New York, so Miller can’t enjoy the elite park factors he has at home. To his credit, Miller’s 2.74 xERA is lower than his 3.08 ERA. Because xERA is ballpark-adjusted, the gap suggests he’s actually good and not just a product of T-Mobile Park, but his road ERA is about two runs higher than his home mark.
Still, he’s a solid strikeout pitcher with the best numbers on the slate, leading all starters in median and ceiling projections. He’ll also have lower ownership by virtue of being “overpriced” in a vacuum, making him a solid tournament option.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo (R) $7,500 Chicago White Sox (-140) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The pitcher likely to absorb the bulk of the ownership today is White Sox starter Castillo, who is, in some ways, the inverse of Miller from a matchup and ballpark perspective. Castillo is taking on the Reds, who have fallen to 30th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This game is also at Rate Field in Chicago (21st in park factor for hitters) rather than in Cincinnati (5th in park factor), which certainly doesn’t help the Reds offense.
The unfortunate part is that Castillo is a much worse pitcher than Miller, with an ERA over 5.00 this season. His underlying metrics are slightly better, but not enough to call him a “regression candidate” in any meaningful way. He’s also striking out fewer than 20% of the batters he’s faced, which doesn’t instill much confidence, either.
The bull case is that Castillo has historically been much better, finishing with an ERA below 4.00 in each of the last seven seasons. I’m not sure how compelling that case is for a 33-year-old who has seen his average fastball velocity dip more than two miles per hour over that span, though. Still, could he recapture some of his former glory against a bad Reds team? That seems at least feasible.
He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection while ranking just behind Miller in both median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Ranger Suarez (L) $9,000 Boston Red Sox (-122) at Toronto Blue Jays
So far, we’ve touched on a good pitcher in a bad matchup and a bad pitcher in a good matchup. Ranger Suarez might be the only starter today who is a good pitcher in a good matchup. He has a 3.32 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate – both very similar to Miller’s numbers – but is taking on the Blue Jays, the worst team in baseball against southpaws. I was a bit surprised to see Toronto at the bottom of those rankings, but they are. That makes this a good time for Suarez to get back on track after a pair of bad starts, both of which came against teams that perform above average against lefties.
Eric Lauer (L) $6,500 Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) vs. Kansas City Royals
Lauer has some of the best Vegas data on the slate, with the Royals implied for just 3.7 runs and his Dodgers installed as massive favorites. I’m not sure I entirely agree with that, given Lauer’s ERA of around 5.00 and the Royals’ roughly average numbers against lefties. The market typically gets these things close to right, though, making Lauer vastly underpriced at $6,500. He’s tied with Castillo for the Pts/Sal lead.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
It’s no surprise to see the best lineup in baseball projecting as the best stack, especially on a day when its team total is more than half a run higher than that of any other team on the slate. On paper, the Dodgers are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against left-handed “starter” Daniel Lynch, but it seems Lynch will serve more as an opener, with Mason Black handling the long-relief duties.
Black has ERA predictors around 6.00 in limited action this season, so he might not last all that long, regardless of the Royals’ plans. Still, a bullpen day certainly wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Dodgers.
Ultimately, rostering the very expensive Dodgers comes down to which pitchers you pair with them. They’re easy to fit with Castillo and Lauer, with Lauer also providing some slight correlation, but they’re very difficult to afford if you’re prioritizing Suarez and Miller. I prefer spending up on hitters today, so I’ll have plenty of Dodgers stacks paired with at least one cheaper arm.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Matt Olson 1B ($5,300) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Zac Thorton)
The second-highest total on the slate belongs to the Braves, who are running away with the NL East and looking to finish the season strong. They’re taking on Mets rookie Zac Thorton ($8,200), who has a 2.52 ERA through seven starts but a concerning 4.60 xERA and just a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Thorton is also a lefty, so I was surprised to see which Braves’ hitter had the best numbers against southpaws when I checked them out on PlateIQ:
That would be Olson, at least in 2026, though switch-hitting second baseman Ozzie Albies is a career .321 hitter against lefties.
Sam Antonacci OF ($4,200) Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds (Rhett Lowder)
The White Sox are tied with Atlanta for the second-best implied total on the slate – both at just under five runs, depending on the source – as they host the Reds tonight. The leadoff spot in their projected lineup belongs to Antonacci, a rookie outfielder who ranks second only to Ohtani in our tournament ratings.
Through 98 MLB appearances, he’s posted a 121 wRC+ and added 14 stolen bases. He’s also reasonably cheap for the leadoff hitter in one of the better offenses on the slate, with a winnable matchup against an opposing pitcher who struggles against lefties. At low ownership, he’s an excellent tournament play.
Nick Loftin 3B ($3,000) Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Eric Lauer)
Lauer is going to be somewhat popular as a pitching option tonight, but as we discussed in his entry, he’s not actually any good. That makes rostering bats against him a solid leverage play, especially when those hitters are underpriced.
That includes Loftin, who is projected to lead off for the Royals and costs just $3,000 on DraftKings. He’s a roughly average MLB hitter but has some solid bats behind him, improving his run-scoring potential should he get on base. If that happens, you’re getting a big leg up on the 20% or so of lineups that roster Lauer.
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Pictured: Bryce Miller
Photo Credit: Imagn
