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Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
There aren’t any good quarterback options on the primetime slate; there are just different degrees of bad. Ben Roethlisberger squares off against a Lions defense that ranks seventh in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and he arguably has the best weapons on the slate in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. The Lions defense has been vulnerable over the last two weeks, surrendering five passing touchdowns and 541 passing yards. Roethlisberger will have his work cut out for him as the Lions boast the league’s second-highest turnover rate, forcing an offensive turnover on 18.7 percent of their opponent’s drives. The Steelers have the slate’s second-highest implied team total at 24 points and while Big Ben has the third-lowest median projection on DraftKings among quarterbacks he has the slate’s highest ceiling projection.
Alex Smith: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
It’s never optimal to target the Broncos defense, but they have allowed at least two or more touchdown passes in four of their six games this season. Alex Smith has the fifth-highest touchdown rate this year as he’s tied for the second-most touchdown passes (15), and he’s the only starting quarterback who hasn’t throw an interception this season. Smith won’t have an easy matchup against the Broncos, but he may able to garner some fantasy production since the Broncos rank 17th in pass DVOA, and he also has potential to run for yardage as he is tied for the sixth-most rushing attempts among quarterbacks this season (28). The Chiefs have the primetime slate’s highest implied team total at 25.25 points.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell: $9,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
When a running back is averaging 31.6 touches per game over the last five weeks, it doesn’t matter that the Lions defense ranks eighth in rush DVOA. It especially doesn’t matter when the running back touches the ball in diverse ways and his name is Le’Veon Bell. Over the last four weeks, Bell is garnering 18.6 percent of the Steelers target share, averaging 3.12 fantasy points per target. Since teams have been struggling to run against the Lions, they have been targeting them out of the backfield instead, as running backs are being targeted at the sixth-highest rate (25.5 percent) against the Lions, who allow the second-most receptions (6.7) and 56.5 receiving yards per game. Bell is the highest-rated running back on the slate in the Levitan Model on FanDuel, where he is sporting a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Kareem Hunt: $7,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
The Broncos have been stingy against running backs, ranking first in rush DVOA as they allow a league-low 3.0 yards per attempt and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. However, Kareem Hunt is the only running back after Bell whom we can reasonably project for at least 20 touches on this slate. Over the last four weeks, Hunt is averaging 22.2 touches per game and leading all running backs with 143.1 yards from scrimmage. Hunt should see favorable game script, as the Chiefs are 7.5-point home favorites with a slate-high 25.25-point implied team total. He trails only Bell among running backs with a +2.43 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown: $8,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Over the last four weeks, Antonio Brown leads all receivers with 12 targets per game. While the matchup against Darius Slay is difficult (he’s Pro Football Focus’ No. 20 cornerback in coverage), Brown isn’t a receiver to downgrade for matchups. He leads all receivers this season with 17.21 DraftKings points per game and is still projected for a 1.32 Plus/Minus even though the Lions have held opposing receivers to 2.4 points below salary-based expectations over the last 12 months on DraftKings. Per our Trends tool, in the four road games Brown has played in this year, he is averaging 19.15 DraftKings points per game with a +2.56 Plus/Minus and 75 percent Consistency Rating.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: $4,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Martavis Bryant was ruled inactive for this game on Wednesday after being demoted to the practice squad, which opens up some value with JuJu Smith-Schuster if you’re trying to jam in both Bell and Hunt. While Roethlisberger will likely spread the ball around a considerable amount, Smith-Schuster will at least be on the field in two-wide sets. It’s still a difficult matchup as the Lions rank 12th in pass DVOA against No. 2 receivers, but Smith-Schuster trails only Brown with his 22.5 percent red zone target share. I was team #FindJujusBike, but now I’ll be hoping he finds the end zone Sunday night.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: $6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
This is an odd slate for tight ends as Travis Kelce is the only one on the slate who sees any volume. In targets per game, Kelce (7.0) trounces A.J. Derby (3.8), Eric Ebron (4.3), and Jesse James (4.6). The Broncos are stout at covering wide receivers, but they’ve consistently been exploited this season by tight ends, ranking 29th in pass DVOA. Their defense is allowing a tight end catch rate of 72.5 percent, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Kelce boasts a slate-high 19-point projected ceiling on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
