Week 13 has 13 games this season with six teams on a bye week. With the three primetime games off the main slate, that leaves 10 games for the main Sunday afternoon contests on DraftKings. Seven of those 10 contests kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET with three more in the late wave, including the huge NFC showdown between the 49ers and the Eagles.
With 20 teams in the player pool, there are lots of strong options to consider as you assemble your Week 13 NFL DFS squad. The highest over/under on the slate is the game between the Dolphins and the Commanders in Washington, D.C., and the highest implied team total by almost a touchdown belongs to the Dolphins.
As you start your prep for Sunday’s slate, let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 9, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Gardner Minshew ($5,300) Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans (42.5 total)
Minshew Mania has taken hold of the Colts, who are currently in the final wild-card spot in the AFC playoff picture. This week, Indianapolis has an important division game against the Titans, and Minshew brings the most Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in THE BLITZ projections.
If you combine THE BLITZ, Raybon’s, and the FantasyLabs projections into an evenly-mixed, three-way blend, Minshew has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the best Pts/Sal by a wide margin. He’s extremely affordable at just $5,300 which is why he outpaces Brock Purdy and Sam Howell, who are also good values but come in over $6K.
Minshew fell just short of salary-based expectations last week, but he still helped the Colts knock off the Bucs. He threw for 251 yards but didn’t throw for a touchdown. Jonathan Taylor punched in two scores, and Minshew himself ran for the other touchdown. On the season, he now has three rushing touchdowns to go with eight passing touchdowns. He has averaged 235 passing yards per game in his seven starts, with multiple passing touchdowns in two games and over 300 yards in two games.
The Titans defense ranks in the middle of the pack against quarterbacks this season, but they did give up over 250 passing yards and two passing touchdowns to Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence before shutting down Bryce Young and the struggling Panthers last week. Lawrence also ran for two scores against them in his monster Week 11 performance. The Titans have done a good job limiting opposing running backs, especially at home. With Taylor (thumb) sidelined and the run game potentially struggling, Minshew could end up having to carry more of the load for the Colts.
Minshew has shown he can work with this group of receivers and put up good numbers. He should be in a favorable enough spot to be a strong value play from this minimal salary on Sunday. The savings should allow you to stock your roster with plenty of big names at other positions, and Minshew should be able to bring solid production as well.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Curtis Samuel ($4,100) Washington Commanders (+9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (50 total)
You can definitely take a look at Josh Downs as a value receiver if you want a value stack with Minshew, but for this spot, I’m going to take Samuel, who should be in for a busy day as the Commanders try to keep up with the high-scoring Dolphins. Samuel has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in Chris Raybon’s projections, behind only Tyreek Hill. He comes in fourth in Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregated projections.
Samuel had been limited by a toe injury earlier this season and was forced to miss Week 9. He played a limited role in Week 10 and was ejected in the second quarter of Week 11 against the Giants. Before his injury, he had at least four catches in five straight games and snagged a pair of touchdowns in that span.
Maybe Sam Howell really appreciated him standing up for him in the dust-up with the Giants, or maybe Samuel was just healthier, but for whatever reason, Samuel stepped into a much larger role on Thanksgiving, feasting for 100 yards and hauling in 9-of-12 targets. He posted season-highs across the board, but those numbers didn’t exactly come from nowhere since the volume was coming his way before the injury and ejections.
Volume should again be headed in his direction this week since the Commanders are heavy underdogs and will likely have to throw the ball a lot against Miami. The Dolphins’ secondary has been good this season, but they have given up seven wide receiver touchdowns in their last four road games.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) New England Patriots (+6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (40 total)
With Taylor out, Zack Moss will be an obvious value and a strong play as he returns to the RB1 role at under $5K. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back this week in the aggregated projections, but Stevenson isn’t far behind him in that category even though he comes with a higher price tag. Whether you’re looking for another value running back to pair with Moss or shopping for a pivot play, don’t over Stevenson, who should also be a strong value play.
Stevenson has been the best player in the Patriots’ offense all season and continues to maintain a strong workload even though Ezekiel Elliott mixes in from time to time. Despite his team’s offensive struggles, Stevenson has outperformed salary-based expectations in five of his last six games.
Last week against the Giants, Stevenson ran for 98 yards on 21 carries and found the end zone for the fourth time this season. With the Patriots’ struggles at quarterback, they have given Stevenson 20 carries in back-to-back games, and he also was targeted five times in each contest. While he hasn’t been extremely efficient, the volume as both rusher and receiver should be there this week against the Chargers, no matter who ends up playing in the backfield with him.
The matchup should be in his favor against the Chargers, who have been one of the best matchups for opposing running backs this season. The Ravens running backs totaled 121 yards rushing against them last week, and the Lions running backs ran for three touchdowns and 193 yards against them in Week 10.
The Patriots should rely heavily on Stevenson in this home matchup, especially if it’s cold and rainy as currently forecasted. The Charger run defense should allow the Pats to ride Rhamondre to their first win since Week 7 when they upset the Bills in Foxboro.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Trey McBride ($4,900) Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (41 total)
Trey McBride continues to be the top value at tight end on a regular basis since he is getting so much work in the Cardinals offense and continues to be affordable every week. His salary is creeping up slowly, but he has the top Projected Plus/Minus on this week’s slate at the position once again by a wide margin. He’s still only the fourth-most expensive tight end on the slate, but he has the highest median projection along with the second-highest ceiling projection.
McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past seven games and has shown a strong connection with Kyler Murray. Since Murray’s return, McBride has averaged 8.3 targets per game and brought in 6.7 catches for 78.0 yards per game. He only has one touchdown this year but did get two targets in the red zone last week. The second-year tight end from Alabama should continue to get all the work he can handle at least until veteran Zach Ertz (quad) comes back from IR.
This week, he’ll be on the road against the Steelers, who have done a good job against tight ends. However, they did allow a tight end touchdown last week to Drew Sample and have allowed 15 tight end catches in their last two contests. They’re not a “stay away” matchup, and with all the work he’s getting, McBride still deserves a look with his salary under $5K.
