NFL Week 5 features an intriguing Sunday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons. The headline for this game is the absence of Lamar Jackson, which makes the Ravens clear underdogs vs. the red-hot Falcons. The Falcons are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
Atlanta enters this game as a winner of two straight, with the offense coming to life with Michael Penix back at the helm. The Falcons have erupted for at least 35 points in back-to-back games, with more than 900 yards of total offense.
The Ravens enter this contest at 3-1, tying them for first place in the AFC North. Their offense has been excellent with Jackson under center, but how they fare without him is a massive question mark. Their defense doesn’t appear quite as strong as in years past, so they’re likely going to need the offense to maintain some stability to win this contest.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by award-winning expert ranker Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Bijan Robinson continues to show why he’s considered one of the best running backs in the league. He’s off to a ridiculous start this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry with just under 500 rushing yards through the first four games. He’s gone for at least 145 rushing yards in back-to-back contests, and he’s also scored multiple touchdowns in both. Ultimately, only Jahmyr Gibbs and Kenneth Walker have amassed more fantasy points at the position.
Robinson has done the majority of his damage on the ground recently, but he’s also a dangerous pass catcher. He has an 18% target share this season, tied for the third-best mark at running back. It gives him multiple paths to relevance on every slate. If the Falcons are leading, Robinson can get his on the ground. If they’re trailing, he can do it through the air.
The Ravens represent a slight step up in class compared to Robinson’s past two opponents, but it’s still not a matchup he should fear. They’re merely 15th in EPA per rush defensively, so Robinson should still be able to get his.
Robinson has the top raw projections in our NFL Models by a pretty considerable margin. He also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s pretty tough to avoid at either Captain or Flex.
Derrick Henry is the Ravens’ stud running back, and he’ll be even more important to them than usual with Jackson sidelined. Despite the fact that he’ll turn 33 years old this season, Henry is still getting the job done at a pretty high level. His efficiency isn’t as elite as it was in the past, but his average of 4.2 yards per attempt is still respectable. He’s also dominating the attempts in the Ravens’ backfield, handling 81% of the team’s carries. He’s had at least 23 attempts in three of his first four games, and he should see another heavy workload with Jackson out of the picture.
Unfortunately, that may not be enough vs. the Falcons. Their defense has been stout against the run this season. They rank first in the league in EPA per rush defensively, and they’ve allowed a paltry 2.7 yards per carry. No other defense has been better than 3.3, so they’ve been significantly better than the rest of the league. It results in a -5.2 Opponent Plus/Minus for Henry, which is the worst mark on the slate.
If Henry can’t get things going on the ground, he doesn’t have much else to fall back on. He’s never been a particularly good pass catcher, and he has just a 7% target share so far this season.
It makes Henry a pretty risky proposition in this contest, especially as an underdog. He’s historically averaged 18.86 DraftKings points per game as a favorite, but that figure slips to 15.68 as a dog (per the Trends tool).
Zay Flowers got a big contract extension this offseason, which left a lot of pundits scratching their heads. They didn’t think he was worth a four-year, $140M deal, but he’s delivered on it to start this season. He’s gone for 100+ yards and a touchdown in two of his three games, and he’s dominated the usage in the Ravens passing attack. Flowers has been targeted on 38% of his routes run, and he’s posted a 30% target share overall.
Of course, Flowers’ success this season has come with Jackson under center. Doing it without him is a completely different animal.
That said, it’s not a death sentence to his fantasy value. In a three-game stretch from Weeks 5 through 8 without Jackson last season, Flowers posted a massive 34% target share. He also had 40% of the team’s air yards. Those looks weren’t as valuable as the ones he got from Jackson, but Flowers actually saw a bump in volume with the backup QBs under center.
Flowers doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong value in our NFL Models, but he still has some upside in this spot. He makes for an intriguing low-owned Captain choice.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
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