NFL Week 2 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as four-point home favorites, and the total sits at 54.0 points.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This matchup is absolutely loaded with star power. It starts with Patrick Mahomes, who is one of the best quarterbacks in football. The 2018-19 MVP got off to a phenomenal start in Week 1, racking up 360 passing yards with five touchdowns against the Cardinals. There were some concerns about how Mahomes would fare without Tyreek Hill, but the early returns are clearly promising.
Mahomes has also thrived against the Chargers over the past two years. He’s averaged 29.99 DraftKings points in his last three outings vs. LA, good for an average Plus/Minus of +5.63 (per the Trends tool).
That said, it is worth noting that the Chargers have a vastly improved pass rush this season. Pairing Joey Bosa with Khalil Mack gives them one of the best pairs of edge rushers in the league, and they racked up five sacks against the Raiders in Week 1. That could be a bit problematic for Mahomes: His Pro Football Focus grade dropped from 88.7 in a clean pocket to 59.1 when pressured last year
Still, Mahomes leads all players in median and ceiling projection per THE BLITZ, and he’s one of the top options in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Justin Herbert is the other quarterback in this contest, and while he’s not quite at Mahomes’ level, he’s pretty darn close. He actually averaged more fantasy points per game than Mahomes did last season, and he trailed only Josh Allen among all quarterbacks.
Like Mahomes, Herbert also got off to a solid start this season. His numbers weren’t quite as gaudy, but he posted a +4.61 Plus/Minus thanks to 279 yards and three touchdowns.
He also arguably has the edge from a matchup perspective. The Chiefs ranked just 23rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA last year, and Herbert leads all players with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.7 on DraftKings. Herbert scored 30.84 and 24.9 DraftKings points in two meetings with the Chiefs last season, so he has arguably just as much upside as Mahomes at a slightly cheaper salary.