We get an interesting AFC showdown to finish off Sunday with the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Las Vegas to play the Raiders at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Raiders are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Davante Adams is the definition of a stud, as he’s been one of the top receivers in the league for a few years now. He’s had solid production to start the year, with 12 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown across two games.
His role is just insane, running a route on 100% of the dropbacks with a 35% target share and 45% air yards share. He’s also seeing a 20% first-read target rate, which is actually a little lower than you’d expect.
This matchup is unimposing though, with Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace manning the Pittsburgh secondary. Adams has shown he can earn targets no matter who is throwing him the ball.
Josh Jacobs has maintained an awesome role in this Las Vegas offense. Sadly, he’s been very inefficient to start the year. He’s taken 77% of the team rush attempts, with 28 carries for 46 yards.
His role in the passing game has been awesome, with 2.64 yards per route run and a whopping 19% target share. This matchup is exploitable, as Pittsburgh has allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing running backs over the first two weeks. Jacobs is a strong bet here.
The man getting the ball to Adams and Jacobs is Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s had a lackluster start to the year in terms of fantasy points, with just 25.6 DraftKings points through two weeks.
This Pittsburgh defense was able to stifle the Cleveland passing game last week, so it’s hard to be too optimistic about Garoppolo here. His ceiling is limited, and I prefer both Jacobs and Adams, even in the same lineup, over Garoppolo.
It’s been mostly a year to forget for Kenny Pickett thus far, with 11.68 and 11.28 DraftKings points across his two performances.
He has faced two tough tests in Cleveland and San Francisco, so the struggles are understandable. This Raiders defense is below average, which is a huge upgrade compared to Pickett’s first two performances. He’s not a cash-game necessity, but he’s a solid option Sunday night.
Pickett’s top option is undoubtedly George Pickens, who has taken on a very strong role with Diontae Johnson dealing with a hamstring injury.
Pickens had a career-high 10 targets last week, catching four balls for 127 yards and a touchdown. He gets a matchup with a Las Vegas secondary that has allowed league highs in catch rate and touchdown rate to opposing receivers.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Najee Harris hasn’t been the workhorse that season-long drafters had hoped for coming into the year. He’s seen 57% of the team rush attempts while running a route on just 47% of the team dropbacks.
The good news for him is that this Raiders run defense is horrid, allowing the second-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs on the year.
Jaylen Warren has carved into Harris’ workload and has actually out-touched Harris to start the year due to his role in the passing game. Warren has run a route on 41% of dropbacks, seeing a 16% target share.
James Cook and the Bills just ran all over this Raiders defense, so there’s room for both Harris and Warren this week. I prefer Warren, but if Harris is going to be low-owned, he could be a gross-but-interesting tournament play.
Jakobi Meyers has been a nice No. 2 behind Davante Adams for Las Vegas this year. He missed Week 2 with a concussion, but he’s cleared for this contest. Meyers actually saw more red-zone and endzone targets than Adams in Week 1, with a 9/81/2 stat line on 10 targets.
He’s a strong option Sunday night, as Las Vegas should be able to move the ball however they want.
I was very high on Pat Freiermuth last Monday Night, and boy did he let me down. He ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks last week, but he saw just one target. He has a poor 9% target rate per route run this year. There really isn’t a difficult matchup for anyone Sunday night, and that includes Freiermuth. He could be an interesting low-owned option, but his role is a little worrisome.
Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin saw similar usage with Johnson out, with Robinson running 25 routes and Austin running 28 last Monday Night. Austin saw four targets, catching one ball for 10 yards. Robinson saw three targets, catching two balls for 12 yards. I prefer Austin to Robinson here straight up, and he comes with an $800 discount.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options should be even more viable than usual. The kickers are both very cheap today, looking like strong options.
- Hunter Renfrow ($3,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Hunter Renfrow will bump down the depth chart with Meyers back. He doesn’t have much of a role honestly. He ran a route on 76% of the routes with Meyers out, and he had just a 5% target share in a game where they trailed the entire time.
- Austin Hooper ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hooper is running a route on about half of the dropbacks, but like Renfrow, he doesn’t have much of a role. This Steelers defense gives up a solid amount of work to tight ends, which is a positive.
- Michael Mayer ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): If using a Raiders tight end, I prefer Mayer to Hooper. Mayer ran a route on nine dropbacks last week compared to 14 for Hooper. He isn’t a strong play by any means, but he frees up a lot of salary.
