NFL Week 9 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Commanders. The Seahawks are listed as three-point road favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
The Seahawks are off to a solid start. They’re currently tied atop the NFC West at 5-2, while Sam Darnold continues to prove that last year’s breakout was no fluke. They’re coming off a bye in Week 8, so they should be ready to go vs. the Commanders.
Conversely, Washington has not had the same success that it had last year. Stud QB Jayden Daniels has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, and the team has slumped to a 3-5 record. They still have roughly half the season to turn things around, but a return trip to the postseason is starting to feel like a longshot.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the most consistent receiver in fantasy this season. He’s No. 3 at the position in terms of PPR points per game, trailing only Puka Nacua and Rashee Rice. While both of those guys have missed games, JSN has been in the lineup every week for the Seahawks. He’s responded by posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of seven games, and he’s gone for 100-plus receiving yards in five of them.
Smith-Njigba has had the best utilization in the NFL this season. He’s racked up a ridiculous 39% of the Seahawks’ targets, which is the top mark in the league. He’s not just a PPR merchant, either. He leads the league with an average of 11.7 yards per target, and he’s ripped off 16.4 yards per catch. He’s racked up 49% of the Seahawks’ air yards, so he’s delivered plenty of big plays to go with massive catch totals.
The only thing JSN hasn’t done a ton of this season is score. His four receiving touchdowns are nothing to scoff at, but they put him merely tied for 14th in that department. He has just a 20% end-zone share for the year, so with some better production around the goal line, his numbers could take another step forward.
It’s easy to love Smith-Njigba’s prospects this week. For starters, he draws an elite matchup vs. the Commanders. Washington has been torched by receivers this season, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game to the position. They’re 25th in pass defense EPA overall, and the Seahawks are implied for a healthy 25.75 points.
Smith-Njigba could also be even busier than usual. Cooper Kupp is not expected to suit up after suffering an injury on Friday, while depth receivers Jake Bobo and Dareke Young have also been ruled out. It leaves Smith-Njigba with even less competition for targets.
JSN has delivered at least 29.3 DraftKings points in three straight games, including against an elite Texans defense in his last outing. It’s hard to envision to Commanders being the team that finally slows him down. He leads all players in median projection on this slate, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Daniels returns to the Commanders’ lineup this week after missing three of the team’s past six games. That’s a nice development. While Daniels hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was as a rookie, he’s still provided plenty of fantasy value. He’s scored at least 17.14 DraftKings points in all five starts, and he’s averaged just under 20 DraftKings points per game. He’s tied for 10th among QBs in fantasy points per game, so he’s still getting the job done.
Daniels’ production with his arm has been about the same as it was last year. He’s averaged just over 200 passing yards per game, and he has eight touchdown passes to just one interception.
The big difference has been his production with his legs. He’s averaging roughly 10 fewer rushing yards per game than he did last season, and he has just one TD. He had six scores in 15 games as a rookie, so he found the paint much more frequently. Hopefully, Daniels is healthy enough to put his rushing upside on display a bit more moving forward.
Daniels may have to use his legs more, given the state of his team’s receivers. Terry McLaurin reaggravated his quad injury in Week 8, and he’s been ruled out vs. the Seahawks. It leaves the team with an unproven group of pass-catchers behind Deebo Samuel, so Daniels may be forced to tuck it more often.
The Seahawks stand out as a slightly above-average matchup. Daniels owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.1, and Seattle is still without starting safety Julian Love. However, they will have Devon Witherspoon in the lineup for the first time since Week 2.
JSN edges out Daniels from a value standpoint, but Daniels gets a slight edge in terms of ceiling projection. Both guys stand out as elite options, and it’s very possible to pair them together on a slate with plenty of value.
Sam Darnold rounds out this tier, and he’s done an excellent job for the Seahawks this season. That said, his game is based more on efficiency than volume. He’s averaged an elite 9.45 adjusted yards per attempt, but he’s attempted just 192 passes through his first seven games. That’s good for an average of just 27.4 throws per contest.
As a result, Darnold has been more of a mid-tier fantasy QB than a true stud. He’s scored 17.8 DraftKings points or fewer in five of seven outings, so he doesn’t bring a huge ceiling to the table.
However, this is a spot where the Seahawks could lean on the pass game a bit more than usual. The Commanders have a pretty stout defensive line, and they’ve been better against the run than the pass. It’s a comparable matchup to when he faced the Bucs earlier this season, and he finished with a season-high 34 attempts in that contest. Darnold responded with his best game of the season, notching 341 yards and four touchdowns.
Darnold leads the slate with a +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Commanders have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. It gives him a much higher ceiling than usual, and his floor is already pretty solid.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
With McLaurin back on the shelf, Samuel will resume his role as the Commanders’ unquestioned top receiver. He’s held that role for most of the year, and he’s racked up a 26% target share. He’ll also sprinkle in the occasional carry, though most of his opportunities come around the line of scrimmage. His air-yards share sits at just 19% for the year, thanks to a paltry 6.1-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT).
Samuel has played four games with Daniels under center this season, and the results have been excellent in those contests. He’s turned in three top-17 finishes at the position, including two inside the top seven. He’s racked up 34 total targets in those contests, so he figures to be pretty busy Sunday night.
The Seahawks employ a committee at running back, with both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet typically handling plenty of opportunities. The Seahawks are 29th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, so they have zero issues leaning on their running backs whenever possible.
Walker has a slight edge in carries for the season, while Charbonnet has a slight edge in snaps. He tends to play on the pass-catching downs, which gives him a bit more upside in PPR formats. Charbonnet has also handled 90% of the carries from inside the five-yard line, giving him more touchdown potential on a weekly basis.
That gives Charbonnet the clear edge from a workload standpoint, but Walker is simply the better player. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry this season, while Charbonnet is all the way down at 2.8. That means that Walker is making the most of his opportunities, even if there are fewer of them than ideal.
Neither player grades out as a must-play in this spot, but Walker gets the edge in our NFL Models. Hopefully, the Seahawks eventually realize that Walker is the better player and reward him with more opportunities, but until that happens, this backfield is a bit of a headache.
The Commanders also use a committee backfield, though it’s a bit more clean-cut. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has taken over as the clear lead runner, handling the vast majority of the RB carries in recent weeks. He has 53 carries over the past four weeks, while no other RB on the roster has more than six.
Unfortunately, Croskey-Merritt still loses plenty of carries to the team’s quarterback, and he brings almost nothing to the table as a pass catcher. He’s going to need to be efficient and find the end zone to ultimately return value. We’ve seen that happen in the past, particularly in his 31.0 DraftKings point outburst vs. the Chargers, but it also gives him considerable downside. He’s gone for 7.7 DraftKings points or fewer in four of his past five games, and the Seahawks are No. 1 in the league in rush defense EPA. Ultimately, it’s a pretty brutal spot.
Zach Ertz should be pretty happy to see Daniels back in the lineup. In five games with Daniels under center this season, he’s had double-digit fantasy points in four of them. The lone exception was a game where he failed to catch a single pass, but Ertz’s numbers still look very good with the team’s starter in the lineup. He’s maintained a pretty healthy target share all season, and he could eclipse 20% with McLaurin on the sidelines. He stands out as one of the better pure values in this price range.
Luke McCaffrey has seen his role grow pretty steadily throughout the year. He made the most of his opportunities to start the year, racking up three touchdowns on just 10 targets through the first six weeks. However, his overall role was pretty minimal in those contests.
He hasn’t had the same actual production in his past two contests, but his underlying utilization has been better. He’s coming off a season-high 63% route participation in Week 8, and he handled 10% of the team’s targets. If he can keep that up moving forward, he has a chance to be fantasy-relevant.
Unfortunately, his salary is too expensive at $5,400 on DraftKings. He’s much more reasonably priced on FanDuel, resulting in a 90% Bargain Rating.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Jason Myers has the best projected Plus/Minus of the group, but the Commanders Defense looks the most undervalued in Sim Labs. They’re projected for less than 20% ownership, but their optimal lineup rate is closer to 24%.
- Jeremy McNichols ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – McNichols has handled the pass-catching responsibilities out of the Commanders backfield. He has a target share of at least 10% in three straight games, including 17% in his last game with Daniels. He actually has a slightly positive correlation with his quarterback, making him an interesting stack partner.
- Jaylin Lane ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Lane has seemingly fallen behind McCaffrey in the pecking order at receiver. His route participation was down to 46% last week, and he had just a 7% target share. Still, with McLaurin out of the lineup, he should play a bit more.
- Chris Moore ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Moore also saw a reduction in snaps last week, and he failed to earn a single target. However, he was a frequent option for Daniels in the QB’s past two games.
- Tory Horton ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Horton stands out as one of the best overall plays on the slate. He excelled during the preseason, and he should get more opportunities to put his skill set on display with Kupp out of the lineup. Only JSN has a better projected Plus/Minus.
- A.J. Barner ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Barner has been a pretty steady part of the Seahawks passing attack all season. He’s not going to rack up a ton of targets most weeks, but he has a 20% end-zone share for the year. That makes him a threat for a cheap TD.
- Elijah Arroyo ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – The Seahawks could lean a bit more on their tight ends with their receiving corps so banged up. Arroyo is coming off a 19% target share in his last contest, so he could be the TE to target in this spot.
- Cody White ($200 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – White is one of the last remaining bodies at receiver for Seattle. He should get on the field as the team’s No. 3 option, making him intriguing at the absolute minimum across the industry.
Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Corey Perrine, Imagn
