The NFL is officially in the home stretch, with just five weeks left to go in the regular season. Week 14 gets underway with a huge matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 54.5 points.
The Lions dropped their second game against the Packers this season on Thanksgiving, putting their postseason prospects in jeopardy. They’re now more than a game behind the Packers and 49ers for the final Wild Card spot, and they’re two games behind the Bears for the division lead. ESPN puts their playoff odds at just 44%, a major disappointment following a 15-2 regular season in 2024-25. They still have games with the Bears and Rams left on their schedule, and they’re going to need to be close to perfect down the stretch.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have put themselves back in the hunt with back-to-back big wins. They erased a 21-point deficit in a comeback win over the Eagles two weeks ago, and they followed that up with a huge win vs. the Chiefs on Thanksgiving. They have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule, with the Lions representing one of their toughest remaining tests. If they can pull off the upset on Thursday Night Football, they have the potential to chase down the reeling Eagles in the NFC East.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
As you might expect in a game with nearly a 55-point total, this contest features plenty of offensive firepower. Amon-Ra St. Brown won’t suit up for the Lions, but they still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball. The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in football, so there are a host of players to consider on both sides.
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the way, and he has been one of the best running backs in fantasy this season. He’s coming off a disappointing showing on Thanksgiving, finishing with just 20 carries for 68 yards, but his workload continues to impress with Dan Campbell taking over the playcalling responsibilities. Gibbs has handled just 56% of the Lions’ carries for the year, but he’s at 70% over the past three weeks. He also has a 26% target share over that time frame, giving him some of the best utilization in the entire league. Gibbs has always thrived on efficiency more than volume, so more consistent opportunities down the stretch could lead to some monster performances.
We’ve seen exactly that in recent games. Before Thursday’s showing vs. the Packers, Gibbs had gone for at least 39.5 DraftKings points in three of his past five games. He finished with just under 60 DraftKings points vs. the Giants two weeks ago, so he might have the highest ceiling in all of football.
Gibbs’ matchup this week is a bit of a mixed bag. The Cowboys have struggled defensively for most of the year, but they’ve shown significant improvement since adding Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. They’re seventh in rush defense EPA from Week 10 on, so the matchup isn’t as good as it looks on paper.
However, Gibbs will also take the field as a home favorite, and he’s crushed in that split for his career. He’s averaged a ridiculous +7.90 Plus/Minus in 31 previous occurrences, and his Consistency Rating sits at 80% (per the Trends tool). That gives him a nice combination of value and upside.
Gibbs leads all players on Thursday’s slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he has the top ceiling projection as well. He has the top optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs, and his projected Captain ownership is checking in well below that figure.
Dak Prescott has been one of the league’s most underappreciated QBs for years, and he’s putting together another excellent campaign in 2025-26. He leads the league in QBR, and he’s averaged 271.8 passing yards per game with 25 passing touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, Prescott ranks fourth at the position in fantasy points per game among QBs with more than two starts, trailing only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and he’s had at least 24.6 DraftKings points in three straight.
There’s no reason to expect much different on Thursday. The Lions have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers this season, and Prescott’s +5.8 Opponent Plus/Minus is tied for the best mark on the slate. Only Gibbs has higher projections in our NFL Models.
Jared Goff is the other QB in this range, and it’s hard to justify him being just -$400 cheaper than Prescott. Goff has simply not been the same caliber of fantasy passer this season. He’s 12th at the position in fantasy points per game, and now he’ll have to survive without his top receiver.
Goff has at least put together some solid results recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, and he has historically been at his best as a home favorite. He’s averaged 21.78 DraftKings points per game in that split as a member of the Lions, good for an average Plus/Minus of +1.44.
While the Cowboys’ defense has improved of late, they haven’t been quite as good against the pass as the run. They’re still just 19th in pass defense EPA since the trade deadline, so Goff can definitely still find success in this spot. For the year, Dallas has allowed more than 25 fantasy points per game to opposing passers, and no other team is above 21.
Ultimately, Goff has a wider range of outcomes than Prescott on this slate. He has a slightly higher ceiling projection but a much lower floor. He’s probably best suited for lineups where you’re fading Gibbs: the two players have a negative correlation, so one tends to succeed at the expense of the other. It’s not a massively negative mark – Gibbs does do plenty of work as a pass-catcher – but it’s rare to see both guys both have ceiling games in that same contest.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Cowboys have the best WR tandem in football in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Both guys have been among the best receivers in fantasy this season. Pickens ranks fourth at the position in PPR points per game, while Lamb isn’t too far behind in ninth.
Lamb still holds a slight edge over Pickens in terms of utilization. Since returning to the lineup in Week 7, Lamb has posted a 28% target share, 40% air yards share, and 39% end-zone share. Pickens has marks of 27%, 36%, and 17%, respectively, over the same time frame. Lamb also had the better day on Thanksgiving, finishing with 27.2 DraftKings points to Pickens’ 16.8.
However, Pickens actually did see more targets than Lamb in that contest. Lamb was slightly more efficient and managed to find the end zone, while Pickens caught just six of his 13 targets for 88 yards.
In general, Lamb feels like the “safer” option between these two, while Pickens has more week-to-week volatility. That gives Lamb a better floor, but Pickens has a better ceiling projection in our NFL Models.
Separating these two guys is extremely difficult, and it will likely be a determining factor on this slate. Pickens and Lamb have a correlation of -0.47, and production for one comes at the direct expense of the other. You could pair both with Prescott in full Cowboys stacks, but otherwise, this is a clear “either/or” scenario.
Jameson Williams will take over as the Lions’ No. 1 receiver following the injury to St. Brown, and it’s easy to love his prospects in that role. Williams has historically been a prototypical “boom-or-bust” receiver. He’s a massive big-play threat, but his targets were volatile on a week-to-week basis.
With St. Brown exiting early last week, Williams racked up a massive 40% target share. Unsurprisingly, he finished with a season-high 29.9 DraftKings points.
While he might not get back to that rate vs. the Cowboys, he should almost certainly exceed his 17% mark for the year. Even if he’s just in the 25-30% range – something that St. Brown routinely cleared as the Lions’ top receiver – it makes him one of the best plays of the day. Only Gibbs has a better projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models.
The only real issue with Williams is his projected ownership. He’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, especially at the Captain spot. He’s expected to be massively over-owned in that spot, so he might be better served as a Flex option.
Javonte Williams has been the Cowboys’ No. 1 RB this season, and he’s been one of the best values of the year. He was expected to be part of a committee in Dallas, but he’s operated as their lead back basically since Day 1. The injury to Miles Sanders only increased his lead over the rest of his backfield mates.
Williams has handled at least 74% of the team’s designed rushing attempts in each of their past four games. He’s not a huge threat as a pass-catcher, but he did post a receiving touchdown last week vs. the Chiefs.
Unfortunately, the Lions represent a tough test for opposing RBs. They rank seventh in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fewest PPR points per game to the position. Add in the fact that the Cowboys are road dogs in this spot, and Williams seems a bit too expensive at $9,000 on DraftKings. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with a 94% Bargain Rating.
Jake Ferguson has had a solid year for fantasy players. In fact, he ranks fifth at the position in PPR points per game.
That said, a lot of his production came early in the year with Lamb sidelined. Since Lamb returned in Week 7, Ferguson’s target share has slipped to just 16%. While that’s not an awful figure for a tight end, his average depth of target (aDOT) of just 4.1 yards means most of his opportunities are extremely low-value.
He ultimately needs to find the end zone to pay off his salary, and even that isn’t guaranteed. He found paydirt three weeks ago, yet he still posted a negative Plus/Minus. He’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in five straight games, so he’s still too expensive at $7,000.
The same can be said for David Montgomery. With Gibbs’ role growing in the past few weeks, Montgomery has become extremely touchdown-dependent. That was fine in previous years. Montgomery scored 25 touchdowns in 28 regular-season games with the Lions in the past two seasons, but he has just six in 12 games so far this year.
The good news is that Montgomery is cheap enough that a touchdown is likely enough to push him into positive territory. He didn’t do much besides score last week vs. the Packers, but his 12.8 DraftKings points were good enough for a positive Plus/Minus. A similar outcome vs. the Cowboys is possible.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers have the best projections of the group in our NFL Models, which is not surprising in a game with a 54.5-point total.
- Isaac TeSlaa ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – TeSlaa should get his opportunity to shine with St. Brown on the sidelines. He was on the field for virtually every snap in that scenario last week, finishing with a season-high 94% route participation. He only saw a 7% target share in that contest, but he did manage to find the end zone.
- Ryan Flournoy ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Flournoy has been the Cowboys’ No. 3 receiver from a route standpoint in recent weeks, but Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson have gobbled up most of the targets. That said, Flournoy has scored in two of his past four games, and he had a respectable three targets on Thanksgiving.
- Ross Dwelley ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – St. Brown isn’t the only major absence for the Lions. Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright are also sidelined, leaving Dwelley as the team’s No. 1 tight end. He had just one catch in that role last week, but he was on the field for most of the team’s pass plays.
- KaVontae Turpin ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) – Turpin isn’t a consistent part of the Cowboys’ offense, but the team likes to get the ball in his hands a couple of times a game. He had two targets and three carries last week, and he has some big-play upside.
- Tom Kennedy ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Kennedy is one of the best values of the day at his current price tags across the industry. He had a 75% route participation last week, and his 16% target share was tied with Gibbs for the second-best mark on the team.
- Anthony Firkser ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Firsker should serve as the Lions’ No. 2 TE on Thursday. He had a 25% route participation and 4% target share on Thanksgiving, but tight ends are always a threat for a cheap TD around the goal line.
- Malik Davis ($1,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Davis ripped off a nice TD run last week vs. the Chiefs, but he was on the field for just nine total snaps. Don’t expect a repeat.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo Credit: Imagn
