NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Bears-Patriots

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Bears vs. Patriots Showdown

With Mac Jones looking ready to return this week, the Patriots’ wide receiver room is a mess. With Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor out last week, electric rookie Tyquan Thornton stepped into a big role and did not disappoint with 21.3 DK points. DeVante Parker has had multiple big games himself while making plays deep down the field but has also gotten completely blanked twice. The one constant has been Jakobi Meyers, who operates as the team’s WR1. Heading into this week, it looks like everyone has a chance to play, which makes the rotation difficult to decipher.

Ultimately my decision will be to lean heavily into the Patriots’ running game, especially considering Mac Jones is expected to be operating at less than 100%. When taking shots at receiver, I will likely limit it to one per lineup and focus on the sure thing in Meyers while taking some chances with the rookie Thornton.

Thornton is substantially overpriced and for that reason, should be very low-owned, but he has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff for his big play ability and figures to have earned a solid role regardless of who else is healthy.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Justin Fields with at least one Bears pass catchers
• Pair Captain Mac Jones with at least two Patriots pass catchers
• Decrease Damien Harris by 15% in lineups with Rhamondre Stevenson at Captain, and vice versa

Player Groups

Max two kickers and defenses.

Max 2 of Mac Jones, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Damien Harris
• Justin Fields
• Jakobi Meyers

Secondary Targets

• Darnell Mooney
• Khalil Herbert
• David Montgomery

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Patriots D
• Tyquan Thornton
• Devante Parker