We have another interesting structure to the slate in Week 9. Three of the 11 games feature totals in the 50s, but they all have a fairly wide spread, meaning the key to the slate might be projecting which underdog keeps things close enough for a true shootout/game stack.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
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As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Brock Purdy ($6,900) San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (52.5 Total)
The 49ers’ game against the Raiders has both the highest total and widest spread on the slate, making it the strongest example of the dynamic I discussed in the intro. The 49ers’ key pieces all have extremely strong floors, as it’s unlikely they fail here, with their ceiling largely driven by how close the Raiders can keep the game and/or how much the 49ers want to run up the score.
As the quarterback, Purdy obviously fits the definition of a key piece – he’s the only offensive player who is likely to touch the ball on every snap. Plus, with Christian McCaffrey banged up, they could potentially go more throw-heavy here. There’s no guarantee on that, though, especially with the spread so wide. We’ll touch on that more in the running back section.
Purdy hasn’t topped 20 DraftKings points since Week 3, with four straight games of around 250 yards passing plus a touchdown or two. There were some tough defenses in that stretch (Denver, Seattle), but the bigger problem is his weaponry. The 49ers have three wide receivers on IR, one already ruled out this week, and three questionable receivers we are projecting as out. That leaves a very thin group, so most of Purdy’s production will filter to running backs and tight ends.
For that reason – and the presence of some minimum-priced QBs – I’d rather try to capture Purdy’s production via McCaffrey and George Kittle, while leaving the QB spot open for someone else. However, he’s projecting well enough that if you think the Raiders keep pace, there are some obvious game-stack options here. He narrowly leads the group of four QBs in the $6,000 range, all projecting within two points of each other.
Value: Drew Lock ($4,000) Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (39.5 Total)
One of those minimum-priced QBs is Drew Lock, who gets his third start of the year with Sam Darnold unexpectedly ruled out for this week after DraftKings released salaries. He is now the best Pts/Sal play on the slate regardless of position, thanks to DraftKings not being able to adjust his salary up for the starting role.
Lock averaged a bit over 17 DraftKings points per game in his two previous starts this season, including a three-touchdown performance against the same Cardinals team he faces this week. That’s a great sign for the offense, with his limiting factor likely to be an increased rushing rate now that Seattle is fully healthy at running back.
Lock has been locked in (pun intended) on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in his two starts, directing almost 46% of his passes to the alpha wide receiver. Smith-Njigba’s overall target share is just under 32%, so the shift to Lock is good news for the receiver. This is typically where I’d say to just roster Smith-Njigba and play someone else at QB, but Lock at just $4,000 makes the duo an excellent correlated block that costs $13,300 collectively and projects for almost 3x that in median projection.
If anything, the stronger argument here might be to roster Lock naked in tournaments, reap the benefits of JSN’s scoring, and save salary for another high-ceiling back or receiver. Either way, there are plenty of tournament options surrounding Lock, who is also a cash game must.
Quick Hits
Jared Goff ($6,600): As a fantasy option, Jared Goff is similar to the Brock Purdy we got over the past few seasons: a rock-solid QB with a plethora of weapons on a run-first team that’s often heavily favored. The nice thing is that the Lions are OK running up the score and have a bad enough defense that even the Dolphins might keep pace here. Picking which Lions skill players will stand out is always difficult, but they all catch their passes from Goff. I think Goff probably needs a Dolphins bring-back to have a shot at hitting, though, as Detroit will lean on the run if Miami doesn’t put up any points themselves.
Dak Prescott ($6,500): Prescott is another QB whose limiting factor is likely the scoreboard. His Cowboys are favored by 5.5 on the road against a Colts team that has given up, so they might not need to be very aggressive. On the plus side, Indy has an obvious bring-back option in running back Jonathan Taylor, and Dallas has the second-highest total on the slate. Prescott-Taylor stacks make a lot of sense given how poor both defenses are.
Jayden Daniels ($6,000): Daniels has quietly averaged just under 25 DraftKings points per game since returning from injury, though he fell short of 15 in his first game with Terry McLaurin on IR. Still, he’s a home underdog against a Rams team that just lost a cornerback and has allowed 20 QB points four times this season despite a very easy QB schedule. Daniels’ rushing upside gives him slate-breaking potential, and he’ll have very little ownership thanks to all of the high-total teams on the slate.
Shedeur Sanders ($4,000): Speaking of no ownership, the other stone-minimum starting QB on the slate, Shedeur Sanders, will likely go almost completely overlooked. He’s not a great QB, and the Browns offense is bad, but he gets to face the Saints at the Superdome and costs just $4,000. Lock is a better raw play on paper, but Sanders has a better shot of outscoring him than the ownership gap suggests.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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