We’ve got another 13-game slate for Week 3 on the NFL season, with the standard 1:00 p.m. ET lock time.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($8,000) Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (50.5 Total)
At most fantasy positions this season, we’re already seeing massive gaps between the top player or two and everyone else. That’s especially true at quarterback, where Josh Allen is 20 points ahead of every other QB in the league through two weeks. He has five passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns already, which is an unsustainable pace in terms of touchdowns, but he’s putting up the yardage to suggest he’ll remain the overall QB1 as long as he’s healthy.
This week, the limiting factor for his ceiling might be the Chargers’ struggles offensively. I’m sure the Bills would like to take the ball out of Allen’s hands at some point in order to keep him fresh for the season, and a game where they’re favored by more than a touchdown against a team that hasn’t scored more than 14 points all season might be the opportunity.
However, the Bills’ defense is questionable in its own right, allowing 31 points each to the Lions and Texans. The former is somewhat expected, but Houston looks like a relatively poor offensive team, so this could be a bounce-back week for the Chargers. Plus, Allen’s floor is solid even if the Chargers struggle, as getting to a big lead likely relies on him scoring a few times.
That makes him an excellent cash-game play, though it’s hard to jam in all of the top options. He’s a solid tournament play as well. For the latter, it’s probably a good idea to pair him with a Chargers piece or two, and picking which one might be the slate-defining decision this week. Allen is projecting noticeably ahead of all other QBs in median and ceiling projections.
Value: Tyler Shough ($5,400) New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (43.5 Total)
The NFL’s passing yards leader coming into Week 3 was a surprising name, as Tyler Shough and the Saints came into the season with major offensive question marks. It’s too early to declare them a top offense, but an overtime loss to the Lions and an upset win over the Ravens were very encouraging signs, and they get their best on-paper matchup of the season in Week 3.
This is also the first home game for the Saints, at the “Coors Field of Fantasy Football” in New Orleans. It’s hard not to get excited about Shough this week, since he’s averaged over 25 DraftKings points in tougher spots on paper before this week. Plus, unlike Allen and the Bills, his Saints are only slight favorites, so there are fewer game-script concerns around him.
Shough’s slate-leading Pts/Sal projection makes him an excellent cash-game option and a necessary player if you’re attempting to jam in stars at running back or wide receiver rather than QB. For tournaments, his value is aided by a fairly condensed target distribution to his two top wideouts, making stacking relatively simple.
Shough doesn’t have Allen’s slate-breaking rushing ability, so rostering him is effectively a bet against Allen going for another massive total. Keep that in mind as you build lineups around Shough (what does a game without a massive Allen score correlate with, and who does that mean we should play?), but he’s otherwise an excellent option.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($7,500): Jackson is the arbitrage Josh Allen this week, as he lacks the goal-line rushing upside of the Bills QB. He and the Ravens are also thin at wide receiver, but they have a great matchup against a soft Dallas defense that has allowed 50 QB points this season despite facing the Commanders and Giants. This game being in Brazil with the questionable field conditions is a slight concern, but I want some Jackson exposure if his ownership is low.
Brock Purdy ($6,500): My interest in Purdy this week is mostly based around the 49ers’ defensive injuries, with star edge rusher Nick Bosa now added to a long list of missing 49ers defensive linemen. A bad 49ers defense raises the scoring expectations for the Cardinals, which in turn should raise the throw rate for the 49ers. Purdy has topped 20 DraftKings points in consecutive comfortable wins, so a tight game could see him reach a new ceiling.
Jared Goff ($6,300): Goff is projecting as the slate’s most popular quarterback, as the Lions have been forced into a higher-than-desired throw rate thanks to their terrible defense. He’s thrown at least 38 passes in consecutive weeks, though the Lions are favored by roughly a touchdown here. I like Goff’s upside, but I don’t have a ton of interest in him if he’s going to carry this much ownership, but it would make sense to mix in some exposure as a hedge.
Jameis Winston ($4,000): Anyone who played DFS in Winston’s time in Tampa Bay remembers how much fun he can be, with seemingly every pass going for a touchdown, but many of those touchdowns were scored by the opposing defense. He wasn’t great (to put it mildly) in relief against the Rams but has a week of first-team reps, a better matchup with the Titans, and a stone-minimum salary. Maybe a Jameis + opposing defense stack for old times’ sake?
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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