With all of the games happening early in Week 17, the DraftKings main slate is down to just eight games, the smallest main slate of the year. As always, it kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Stud: Josh Allen ($8,500) Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. New York Jets (46.5 Total)
It’s a strange slate this week, with just eight games, half of which have a total under 40. As such, we only have one quarterback priced over $7,000, and it’s Allen who comes in way above that mark at $8,700. His projections stand out equally above the rest of the pack, which makes him an interesting decision point this week.
Odds are pretty solid he’ll finish with the best score on the slate, but whether that gap is large enough to justify the big price gap is a different question. The Bills are massive favorites over the Jets, which makes it hard for Allen to hit a big ceiling performance. His big scores came in tight shootout wins over the Rams and Lions, both more powerful offenses than the Jets.
The Jets have played better offensively in recent weeks, though, and the Bills’ defense allowed 21 points against the Patriots last week. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if the Jets kept it close enough to force the Bills to stay aggressive.
Of course, in that case, it probably means some Jets pieces post big scores too. I wouldn’t play Allen without a bring-back or two from New York. Allen does enough of his own scoring on the ground that he doesn’t necessarily need a stacking partner from Buffalo. Pairing him with Jets players but not Bills is also likely to be a slightly more contrarian way to build.
Value: Mason Rudolph ($5,000) Tennessee Titans (+1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (39.5 Total)
Cheap quarterbacks have been the key to plenty of slates this season, particularly in cash games. This week, the bottom of the salary scale is pretty ugly, though, given all of the low totals and bad players on the slate.
We’re showing the best projections on Rudolph, who lead the position in Pts/Sal projection prior to the Dolphins quarterback news. Rudolph has been serviceable under center the last two weeks for the Titans, scoring 16.76 DraftKings points in about half of a game against the Bengals and 17.38 in a full game against the Colts.
This week he gets an even better matchup against the Jaguars. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the most points to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL. The Titans’ 19.3-point implied total isn’t especially confidence-inspiring, but Rudolph should be able to get to a serviceable score even in a lower-scoring game.
Plus, with Tony Pollard looking unlikely to suit up for Tennessee, we could see a higher pass rate than normal for the Titans. Rudolph’s ceiling is probably too low to be a serious GPP option, but he’s a strong cash game play.
Quick Hits
Tyler Huntley ($4,000): News broke Saturday that Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful for the Dolphins, and we’re now projecting Huntley as the starter. He’s priced at the stone minimum on DraftKings, and gets to throw to Tyreek Hill ($6,900) and company. Huntley’s three previous starts for Miami failed to produce even 13 DraftKings points, though, so he’s far from a safe bet. Still, at his price he’s now the leader in Pts/Sal projection.
Anthony Richardson ($5,900): Richardson has yet to practice for the Colts as of Friday, making him doubtful for Week 17. However, if he’s able to suit up, he’s in a great spot against the Giants. The Colts’ 24-point team total is one of the slate’s best, even with Richardson doubtful. Richardson’s injury status should keep his ownership down, so keep an eye on the news throughout the weekend.
Update: Richardson has been ruled out, with Joe Flacco ($4,900) set to start. Flacco is now a top-five value option against the Giants.
Baker Mayfield ($6,900): Mayfield’s projections trail only Allen’s in Week 17, at a much cheaper price tag. His Bucs have the highest team total on the slate, in a must-win game against the Panthers. The big concern for Mayfield is the game script, with Tampa favored by eight. Against a Panthers team that’s much more easily attacked on the ground, that could limit Tampa’s passing volume. Still, if Mayfield can come anywhere near Allen’s score, he’d be a week-winner at $1,600 cheaper. Bucs stacks make a lot of sense this week.
Sam Darnold ($6,400): Packers-Vikings is the best on-paper game for DFS purposes, with a 48.5 total and Minnesota favored by just one. The Vikings rank third in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season, while Green Bay ranks 29th. That makes the obvious way to attack this one through the Vikings’ passing attack with Packers bring-backs on the ground. While both teams are strong defensively, the high total is a strong indicator offenses will win out.
Kenny Pickett ($5,500): We’re currently projecting Jalen Hurts ($7,500) as out for this week. Philadelphia is essentially locked into the #2 seed in the NFC, so there’s no reason to risk their star quarterback. Assuming that’s how it shakes out, Pickett is in a solid spot against a bad Cowboys defense that’s allowed the second-most points to quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s an interesting GPP pivot from Rudolph at lower ownership.
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