NFL DFS Picks: Week 16 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

With just 3 weeks left in the NFL regular season, we have an 11-game main slate on DraftKings starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Josh Allen ($8,700) Buffalo Bills (-14) vs. New England Patriots (46.5 Total)

Josh Allen has scored just under 100 DraftKings points over the past two games, with the Bills offense putting up 90 points in two relatively competitive matchups. Now they have a much different situation against the Patriots, coming in as 14-point favorites.

That unsurprisingly also comes with the highest team total on the slate by a solid margin, with Buffalo implied for more than 30 points. Still, 30 points probably isn’t enough for Allen to have another ceiling game. It’s unlikely that Buffalo will be pushed enough to need another 40-pointer, so the odds of a third-straight explosion from Allen are fairly low.

On the other hand, he’ll probably account for at least three total touchdowns here, if not four, giving him a very good shot to hit around 25 DraftKings points. That’s where we have him projected, solidly clear of the rest of the field.

If you could somehow find the salary in cash games, he’d be a very strong play, but I’m probably staying away for GPPs. The only argument I could see would be building around somebody on the Patriots to have a big game as a bring-back — but that’s fairly thin.

Value: Michael Penix ($4,500) Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) vs. New York Giants (43 Total)

The reason we probably won’t see much Josh Allen cash ownership this week is the presence of Michael Penix. Penix was announced as the Falcons starter for the rest of the season, replacing Kirk Cousins.

All things considered, it’s not a bad setup for Penix. He has plenty of talent around him, including both pass catchers and an above-average offensive line. More importantly, he gets to make his NFL debut at home against the Giants.

The G-men rank 27th in overall DVOA on defense and 29th against the pass. Penix should be able to move the ball effectively here. Considering his absurdly low salary, he won’t need a ton of production to pay off. He’s a cash-game must, and an interesting GPP option if you think he can unlock the Falcons’ disappointing passing attack.

Quick Hits

Jared Goff ($6,800): The Lions defense is bad. They’ve added a starting CB and DT to the injured reserve, which already included Aidan Hutchinson and their top four linebackers. That means they’ll likely need a heavy dose of Goff to win any games moving forward. He proved up to the task last week, throwing for 494 yards and five touchdowns against the Bills. He probably won’t be called on for quite as much volume this week, but he still has a high ceiling against the Bears.

Caleb Williams ($5,500): The Lions defense is bad. That’s good news for Williams and the Bears too, since they’re hosting the Lions. Chicago has a trio of talented wideouts and are underdogs in the slate’s highest-total game. It doesn’t get much better than that in terms of a setup. Williams already has four 25-point games this year, and another one could make him a GPP winner.

Anthony Richardson ($5,400): Richardson is far too cheap on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating. He’s been inconsistent as a thrower this season, with some big games and some bad mistakes. The matchup this week could push him toward the former against a Titans defense that’s faced the fourth-highest opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation in the league. Richardson’s rushing gives him a solid floor, but he could throw his way to some upside this week.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks