For the Divisional Round of the playoffs, DraftKings has combined both days of the weekend slate into one 4-game contest. As always in the playoffs, these games run sequentially, making late-swap a huge part of the strategy considerations on the slate.
The slate starts at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Saturday with Texans-Chiefs and runs through Sunday evening.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens (51.5 Total)
The league’s best fantasy quarterbacks are all active this weekend, with the top three options separated by just 0.8 points. The leader of that group, as well as my personal favorite, is Josh Allen.
The issue with rostering Allen for much of the year has been that he consistently scores in the 20s but needs a very specific game environment to end up above that. The two games in which he scored more than 30 DraftKings points were both shootouts against other high-powered offenses — and Allen combined for 100 points across those two games.
That’s exactly what he has this week against the Ravens. Baltimore averaged over 30 points per game this season, just behind Buffalo for second place in the NFL. It’s not just that Baltimore keeping pace forces the Bills to stay aggressive. Buffalo was up big at times against the Lions in Allen’s 54.88-point game, but the Bills kept their foot on the gas, knowing that Detroit was likely to get theirs.
It’s a similar dynamic this week, except now the Bills are taking on the team that’s faced the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the league and ranks 26th in points allowed to quarterbacks. Allen is expensive but has by far the best odds of completely breaking the slate this weekend.
Value: Jayden Daniels ($7,000) Washington Commanders (+9.5) at Detroit Lions (55.5 Total)
Jayden Daniels’ stat lines this season look eerily similar to Allen’s. He’s finished above 20 DraftKings points more often than not, with a few bigger performances in the mid-30s. While his ceiling isn’t as high as Allen’s in the absolute sense, you’d certainly live with a score of 30+ from the talented rookie.
There’s a case that Daniels has better odds of a true explosion this week than Allen does. That’s mostly thanks to the matchup with the Lions. While Detroit has a strong defense overall, they’ve struggled against rushing quarterbacks. They play man defense at the highest rate in the league, which presents more opportunities for QBs to produce with their legs.
Allen’s 50+ point game came against the Lions, and overall they’re a top-five team in rushing yards and touchdowns allowed to the position. Pair that with the likely game script — Detroit is favored by nearly double digits — and the upside for Daniels is clear.
He’s not quite cheap enough to lead the slate in Pts/Sal this week, but he has the best combination of value and upside among the standout options.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes ($6,000): The $6,000 price tag on Mahomes feels too cheap given his pedigree, but it’s about right for his typical production this year. He’s gone over 4x this salary just three times all season, as Kansas City relies on their defense to win games. Of course, that could change in the playoffs. Mahomes has historically done his best work after the regular season ends, averaging 285 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games. He probably falls on the lower end of his playoff range this week in a likely blowout, so I’m considering him only if stacking this game specifically.
Lamar Jackson ($7,800): The other half of the weekend’s best on-paper matchup is Jackson, whose outlook mirrors Allen’s. Both teams should be aggressive here, and the game has a total north of 50. I like Allen better straight up since he’s not competing with Derrick Henry for rushing touchdowns, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Jackson finishes with the higher score. Keep an eye on ownership projections, as Jackson would be the better play if he’s significantly less popular.
Jalen Hurts ($6,800): Thanks to a three-week absence due to a concussion, we’re getting a discount on Hurts here. Still, the emergence of a star running back in Philadelphia has cut into Hurts’ fantasy production even at full strength, with just two 30-point games all season. With that said, he’s an excellent option to get leverage against Saquon Barkley in GPPs, particularly when stacked with the Rams’ pass catchers. I’m not blindly throwing Hurts into lineups, but there’s a place for him in specific builds.