We’ve made it to the final multi-game slate of the NFL season. We’ve got just two games: the NFC championship between the Eagles and Commanders at 3:00 p.m. ET, followed by the Bills traveling to Kansas City for the AFC championship at 6:30 p.m ET.
Both games have very similar totals, though the evening game has a much tighter spread of 1.5 points compared to the 6.0 spread in the NFC championship game.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Stud: Josh Allen ($7,500) Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (47.5 Total)
When a 19-point fantasy performance feels like a major disappointment — which was the case last week for Allen — that’s a very good sign, all things considered. That was one of just two games since early October where Allen failed to top 20 points. He has as many games north of 44 DraftKings points in that time as under 20.
The downside for Allen this year has been that outside of those two explosions, he’s scored in the low to mid-20s fairly consistently, but without much upside beyond that. On 10+ game main slates, that’s typically not enough for him to win you a GPP.
However, there are just four quarterbacks to choose from this week, all of whom have somewhat considerable downsides. The Bills’ MVP candidate putting up 22 or 23 could very easily be the best score on the slate, making his strong odds of getting there much more valuable than usual.
We have Allen as the narrow lead in both median and ceiling projections — though he’s also the most expensive option. Still, if you can find the salary, he’s an excellent play for all contest types. It’s a somewhat difficult matchup against the Chiefs defense, but they’re a better real-life defense than fantasy defense, ranking 21st against QBs.
Value: Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (47.5 Total)
Allen’s counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, has been uncharacteristically unproductive as a fantasy asset this season, averaging less than 19 DraftKings points — the fewest of the four remaining QBs. He’s also the cheapest option on the slate and taking on a team that’s typically brought out the best in him.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have eliminated the Bills from the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, scoring 107 points across those three contests. The 2024 Chiefs aren’t nearly as explosive an offense, but if pushed by Allen and the Bills, it wouldn’t be surprising for a vintage Mahomes game to show up on Sunday.
Our projections have all three QBs within about three points of each other and Mahomes just 1.3 points shy of Allen. If it plays out close to that, the $1,500 in savings is more than worth giving up that small amount of production.
Still, rostering Mahomes is partially a bet on all four quarterbacks failing to hit ceiling games. He hasn’t topped 30 DraftKings points all season and doesn’t really have the weaponry to put up massive numbers. That’s not necessarily a bad play, but be sure to keep that in mind if building around Mahomes in GPPs. He’s the leader in Pts/Sal projection by a fairly wide margin, making him close to a lock in cash games.
Quick Hits
Jayden Daniels ($7,000): Daniels’ median projection is just 0.1 points shy of Allen’s, with a game script that should encourage him to be extremely aggressive. His Commanders are six-point underdogs to the Eagles, and Daniels is their best path to putting up points. He has more 30-point games since Thanksgiving than any of the other three QBs have all season, making him a high-ceiling option at low projected ownership.
Jalen Hurts ($6,500): Hurts is the only QB on the slate I’m not at all interested in, largely thanks to the knee injury that seems to be bothering him this week. The Eagles have the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation in the league and are also fairly heavy favorites. Hurts’ fantasy upside is tied to his rushing production, but between the knee and the concussion he suffered late in the regular season, I don’t see them calling many runs for him if they can avoid it, making it hard for Hurts to put up many points.