Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.
Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.
Now, let’s get to it!
My Favorite Week 3 NFL DFS Angle
Last week we had a ton of value, this week it seems impossible to find. Current ownership projections look like our opponents will look for savings through mid-tier running backs like David Montgomery and Leonard Fournette. While both project well, it presents an opportunity to pivot. The Bucs and Fournette face the potential for total offensive implosion like we saw last week, with a decimated offensive line and no skill position talent. They take on a pretty good Packers defense, who also implement a slow, run-heavy scheme on offense.
Montgomery is admittedly harder to poke holes in given his cheap tag as a home favorite against a Texans team you can run on. He historically lacks the upside most weeks to completely bury you if you don’t have him, but I’m good with matching the field.
My larger point is that I think this is a great week to play four wide receivers in both cash and tournaments. In the $6,000 range, I would rather take shots at guys like Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman, and Drake London this week.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.
Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.
Flex positions: WR, RB (considering building half of my lineups with WR only in flex before building my other half and allowing either position)
Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and one pass-catcher from the opposing team.
A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.
Two of my favorites this week:
You want to avoid pairings like this in GPPs to assure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out RB paired with WR from the same team.
Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to quickly accomplish this.