Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jordan Love ($5,800) + Christin Watson ($5,600)
Love is coming off his worst start of the season but is in a perfect bounce-back spot this weekend vs. the Broncos. On top of being the worst-graded defense on PFF, Denver is surrendering the most passing touchdowns (14) and most yards per pass in the league (8.2).
The Broncos are without question the best matchup attack for quarterbacks this season, and in this spot, the Packers carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (23.25 points) via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Furthermore, this contest’s total is the second largest on the board (45 points), and this is expected to be a competitive tilt throughout, with Green Bay only favored by 1.5 points, which is the tightest spread of the slate.
So far in his first season as the Packers’ starting quarterback, Love is producing 0.51 DraftKings points per dropback, which is notably tied with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. Love has recorded at least 19 DraftKings points in four of his five starts and should throw for multiple touchdowns and possibly over 300 yards this Sunday.
Watson and his big play ability make him the best player to pair with Love. After being limited in his first game of the season in Week 4 due to a nagging hamstring injury, Watson ran a route on 85% of Love’s dropbacks in Week 5. Now, coming off Green Bay’s bye week, Watson should be back to full strength and should thrive as Love’s No.1 option in this dream matchup vs. the Broncos.
Watson has commanded a target on 22% of his routes this season and has already seen four targets over 20 yards in only two games. Love and Watson have a strong chance of connecting on a few deep balls this Sunday, and the latter is extremely underpriced for his upside. For the nine career games Watson has logged at least 50% of the snaps, the wideout is amassing 17 DraftKings PPG, including five efforts of at least 19 DraftKings points.
With both Love and Watson forecasted for single-digit ownership on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections, this quarterback-to-receiver pairing is a superb stack for Week 7.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Austin Ekeler ($8,600)
With the BLITZ projections slating Ekeler for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, the back is an incredible way to attack this expected shootout between the Chargers and Chiefs. By a sizeable gap of three points, this AFC West matchup presents the highest total on the slate (48 points). While he has only appeared in two games this season, Ekeler’s role has remained elite, with him handling 15 carries per game, including eight red zone attempts.
As always, Ekeler has also been very active in the passing game, seeing a target on 22% of his routes while running a route on 58% of his team’s dropbacks. Impressively, Ekeler has obtained four red zone targets – which ranks fourth among running backs – despite only playing in two contests.
The 28-year-old ranks 12th in DraftKings points per snap among running backs (0.44), and this Kansas City defense he is facing is allowing the eighth-most yards per rush (4.5). To put the icing on the cake, Ekeler has dominated in this division matchup throughout his career. Excluding a game during his rookie season in which he only logged 10 snaps, Ekeler has never scored less than 18 DraftKings points in nine career matchups with the Chiefs.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Drake London ($5,100)
The Falcons finally opted for a pass-heavy gameplan this past week vs. the Commanders, and it translated into a season-high 24.5 DraftKings points for London. Atlanta threw the ball at the ninth-highest clip in the league in Week 6 at 66%, which is a huge leap from their 55% average for the season. Now, as a 2.5-point road underdog vs. the Bucs this Sunday, the Falcons may be forced to air it out again, which would be huge news for London. This Tampa Bay defense he is facing is the ninth worst-graded unit on PFF, and London has seen more targets in four consecutive games, peaking at a season-high 12 last Sunday.
After oddly being targeted only once in Week 1, the second-year wideout has seen a target on 22% of his routes over the last five games, including eight red zone targets and seven targets greater than 20 yards. London is far too cheap for his role as the Falcons’ No.1 receiver and must be utilized in GPPs this weekend, with the BLITZ projections slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Michael Mayer ($2,700)
While the Raiders will be without Jimmy Garoppolo (back), leaving them with either veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, Mayer is a worthwhile gamble at this near-minimum salary. After splitting snaps with Austin Hooper for the first five weeks of the season, Mayer became Las Vegas’ featured tight end this past Sunday. In the win over the Patriots, the rookie hauled in five of his six targets for 75 yards, resulting in 12.5 DraftKings points. Mayer encouragingly saw a target on 27% of his routes – including a pair of red zone targets – while running a route on a season-high 67% of his team’s dropbacks.
After topping 800 receiving yards in each of his last two seasons at Notre Dame, Mayer was selected in the second round by the Raiders at the NFL draft this past summer, making him the third tight end off the board. The 22-year-old is a promising prospect, and if his newfound role continues, which feels likely after his strong showing in the victory over New England, Mayer should have zero issues beating his low salary against the defensively inept Bears.
This season, Chicago is the third worst-graded defense on PFF, and they are allowing the second most yards per pass (7.7). Specifically to tight ends, the Bears are surrendering the second-most catches (40) and seventh-most yards to the position (332). According to the BLITZ projections, Mayer is only expected to be around 3% on DraftKings this weekend.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.