NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 12/29): It’s Bradley Beal SZN

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Damian Lillard has been a bit of a disappointment recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.97 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,100 over that time frame, which could make him an interesting buy-low target vs. the Golden State Warriors. Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.66 vs. the Warriors, and that number has increased to +11.06 when facing them at home (per the Trends tool). He leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Value

It looks like a great day to pay down at the point guard position.

John Wall remains out for the Washington Wizards, which should result in an increased workload for Tomas Satoransky. He played 38.5 minutes with Wall out of the lineup yesterday and has averaged 27.88 DraftKings points in four games without Wall this season.

Dante Exum should also see a larger role today for the Utah Jazz. He’s been good recently, scoring at least 23.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and could possibly enter the starting lineup with Ricky Rubio ruled out for tonight’s contest. Exum is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which would make him one of the best values of the day at just $3,500.

Fast Break

Jeremy Lin doesn’t benefit from the same obvious bump in value as guys like Satoransky and Exum but still deserves some consideration at his current salary. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, thanks in part to an average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a nice matchup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.

Mike Conley has a difficult matchup vs. the Boston Celtics but is priced at a discount at just $7,300 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Conley has Plus/Minus of +1.70 with a comparable salary this season.

Shooting Guard

Studs

James Harden has scored at least 60.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, but you can make in argument that he hit his floor in all three of those contests. He’s posted an absurd usage rate of 43.1% over that time frame but has shot just 40.0% from the field. He’s also averaged just 7.7 assists and 4.0 rebounds, both of which are lower than his season averages.

Those games have also come against some strong defensive teams in the Spurs, Thunder, and Celtics, and today’s matchup vs. the Pelicans is much more appealing. They currently rank fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks first on the slate. He’s almost impossible to fade on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Bradley Beal isn’t Harden, but he may try to do his best impersonation today vs. the Charlotte Hornets. He’s been dominant with Wall out of the lineup this season, averaging 56.94 DraftKings points per game. He also posted a usage rate of 38.8% in yesterday’s contest, which was his second-highest mark of the season. He’s too cheap across the industry, but his $7,900 salary on DraftKings is egregious.

Value

Austin Rivers has become a key part of the Rockets’ rotation, logging at least 31 minutes in both games with the team. He’s currently priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.60.

Fast Break

Donovan Mitchell has not been particularly impressive in his sophomore season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.27 on FanDuel. That said, he’s seen a usage bump of +3.4% with Rubio off the court this season, so he figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from his absence. He could be a bit underowned with Harden and Beal also available at the position, which makes him an interesting target for guarantee prize pools (GPPs).

Eric Gordon has shot the ball poorly this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from jacking up a bunch of shots each game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five contests and has big upside if he ever starts making his jump shot again.

Small Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant has been an excellent value on DraftKings recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +13.13 in three of his past four games. That includes his most recent contest, where he recorded a triple-double en route to 63.5 DraftKings points vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. He has the same matchup today and leads all small forwards with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He also remains underpriced at just $9,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

Joe Ingles doesn’t figure to see a huge bump in usage without Rubio, but he still seems underpriced at just $5,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 32 minutes on today’s slate. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Knicks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.29.

Fast Break

The wing players for the Wizards offer a lot of value today. Trevor Ariza has logged huge minutes since being acquired for the Suns, and that doesn’t figure to change today with Wall and Markieff Morris out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. Jeff Green likely won’t see as many minutes as Ariza but is significantly cheaper across the industry. He might be the better pure value if you need the salary savings.

Power Forward

Stud

Anthony Davis continues to demolish everything in his path. He dropped 84.25 DraftKings points on the Mavericks last night and has now posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.95 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He leads all players on today’s slate with 14 Pro Trends and has averaged an elite 1.76 DraftKings points per minute.

Davis is also playing insane minutes — he played just under 43 yesterday, including the entire second half — which gives him the safest floor on a nightly basis. If you are looking for cracks in his armor, tonight’s contest vs. the Rockets is on the second leg of a back-to-back.

He could be tired after logging so many minutes in yesterday’s contest, but Davis has historically posted a Plus/Minus of +5.13 on DraftKings when playing at home with no rest. Fading Davis is playing with fire, especially on DraftKings at just $11,200. It’s also possible to jam Davis, Harden, and Beal into the same lineup, which is obviously appealing.

Value

Luke Kornet started the last game for the New York Knicks and did not disappoint, scoring 36.1 FanDuel points in 33.5 minutes. He’s averaged a stout 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and will remain in the starting lineup for today’s contest vs. the Jazz, which makes him appealing at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.

Fast Break

LaMarcus Aldridge has been priced down to just $7,100 on DraftKings, which is extremely low for a player of his caliber. There’s always some risk in targeting the Spurs on the second leg of a back-to-back, but Aldridge did play 38 minutes yesterday vs. the Denver Nuggets.

Derrick Favors could be another value option worth considering for the Jazz. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could see a few additional minutes with Rubio out of the lineup.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic shouldn’t garner much attention today, especially if Paul Millsap returns to the lineup (currently questionable). That said, he’s in an elite spot vs. the Phoenix Suns, who have struggled to defend opposing centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.44, which trails only the Spurs’ options at the position.

Value

Thomas Bryant looks like one of the best value options of the day across the industry. He tallied 33.0 DraftKings points in 29.5 minutes yesterday vs. the Bulls and should see a similar workload today with Wall and Morris out of the lineup. He’s been impressive when on the court this season, averaging 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.

Fast Break

As usual, DraftKings has a few center options that seem significantly underpriced. Rudy Gobert and Clint Capela each own a Bargain Rating of at least 95%, and both players have positive factors working in their favors. Gobert could see a slight usage bump with Rubio out of the lineup in a great matchup vs. the Knicks, while Capela is in an extreme pace-up spot vs. the Pelicans.

The Hawks’ frontcourt situation could be an interesting one to monitor. Dewayne Dedmon is currently listed as doubtful, while Alex Len, Alex Poythress, and Miles Plumlee are all listed as questionable. If all four guys are unable to go, the Hawks could lean on Omari Spellman, who is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings.

Good luck!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured Above: Wizards G Bradley Beal
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports