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NBA DFS (Wednesday, Mar. 30): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates. 

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Point Guard 

Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel

Neither of these teams play defense, so there should be a ton of points to go around between the Thunder and Hawks. Young’s Opponent Plus/Minus is out of this world, and he’s got a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Don’t fade him on DraftKings, though.

Young went for just 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting in his last game but handed out 16 dimes and still finished with 45 fantasy points. He’s failed to crack 50 fantasy points in four of his last six, but that lack of production may drive ownership down.


Top Value: Chris Paul at Golden State Warriors – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel

CP3 is way more expensive than most guys featured in the value section, but he’s priced ridiculously low given his upside and performance since returning to the lineup.

After a month on the sidelines due to a thumb injury, Paul has averaged 18.0 points, 13.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 stocks and 1.0 triples in two games back, good for 47 fantasy points per contest. Golden State has been rolled by opponents as of late, so the Point God should show out again.

Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel

Murray has been absolutely incredible this season, so he’s a top option on any slate. Tonight, he’ll face a Memphis squad that’s continued to win even without Ja Morant, and the over/under is the highest on the slate at 233.5 over/under.

San Antonio is now the 10th seed in the West, and every win counts for a team that sold at the trade deadline and that no one believed could make the play-in game. Murray is an excellent play here.

Note: Murray is eligible at PG on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel


Top Value: Josh Christopher vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel

Christopher had his best game of the season Monday in the Rockets’ loss to the Spurs, going for 20 points, six boards, six assists, two steals and a block across 30 minutes.

The Rockets just shut down Eric Gordon, Dennis Schroder and Christian Wood for the season, so there should be plenty of minutes available for a guy like Christopher, one of the Rockets’ three first-round picks last year. At just $3.9K, he’s easily the best value on the slate in an excellent game environment against the Kings in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Boston Celtics – $8,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

After a letdown performance against the Nets, Butler bounced back against the Kings on Monday with a 27/7/5 line and a much-needed Heat victory.

The Celtics’ NBA-best defense offers quite a challenge for Jimmy Buckets, but Miami needs every win it can get right now, and this contest has seeding implications in the tight race for the East’s top spot. Butler’s price is comical at this point, and for less than $8K on FanDuel, you can easily fit him into lineups alongside multiple other studs.


Top Value: Aaron Wiggins vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel

Wiggins was masterful in Monday’s OT victory against the Blazers, posting a career-high 28 points to go with six dimes and five boards while scoring the Thunder’s final four points in the decisive extra quarter.

Tre Mann (hamstring) is a GTD, and all of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Darius Bazley and Lu Dort are out for the remainder of the season. Wiggins has 40-point upside, and he’s a tremendous value with a sub-$5K salary.

Note: Wiggins is eligible at SG/SF on DraftKings and SG on FanDuel.

Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel

It’s hard to find a guy who’s been hotter than Siakam in March. Spicy P has certainly lived up to his moniker this month with averages of 26.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 triples and 1.1 steals.

He dominated Boston’s thinned-out frontcourt with a season-high 40 points in Monday’s OT victory and added 13 rebounds and five stocks for good measure. Tonight’s matchup offers a 228 over/under and a two-point spread against a Timberwolves team that’s been red-hot on offense since the All-Star break.


Top Value: Kevin Love vs. Dallas Mavericks – $6,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

There’s a pretty big disparity in pricing tonight, as Love comes in $1,600 cheaper on FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating. Savvy DFS players should take note and make sure to get some exposure on DraftKings too. The inflated price should drive his ownership way down (a la Drew Eubanks’ 17% on Monday), so take advantage.

There’s a reason Love is our top value tonight. With no Jarrett Allen and no Evan Mobley, this frontcourt will be razor-thin, allowing the veteran forward to soak up plenty of minutes. He’s got a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus against Dallas and all the opportunity in the world.

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Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Indiana Pacers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

The Joker went off for 26 points, 19 rebounds and 11 assists in Monday’s win over Charlotte for his third triple-double in the month of March. Jokic is in the hunt for a second consecutive MVP award and one of the West’s top-6 seeds, so there’s no way he slows down tonight at Indiana.

The Pacers frontcourt is in shambles right now, and Jokic gets one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the entire slate, regardless of position. His salary is understandably high, but he’s the only guy on this slate with an 80-point ceiling.


Top Value: Alperen Sengun vs. Sacramento Kings – $6,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Christian Wood has been shut down for the season, leaving Sengun to start in an excellent matchup against the Kings. Like Kevin Love above, make sure not to fade Sengun entirely on DraftKings, but take advantage of his 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Sengun has averaged a healthy 1.13 fantasy points per minute this season, and our model projects him to be on the court for 31 minutes tonight. He’s set up perfectly to add another strong game to this late-season surge.

The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates. 

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard 

Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel

Neither of these teams play defense, so there should be a ton of points to go around between the Thunder and Hawks. Young’s Opponent Plus/Minus is out of this world, and he’s got a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Don’t fade him on DraftKings, though.

Young went for just 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting in his last game but handed out 16 dimes and still finished with 45 fantasy points. He’s failed to crack 50 fantasy points in four of his last six, but that lack of production may drive ownership down.


Top Value: Chris Paul at Golden State Warriors – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel

CP3 is way more expensive than most guys featured in the value section, but he’s priced ridiculously low given his upside and performance since returning to the lineup.

After a month on the sidelines due to a thumb injury, Paul has averaged 18.0 points, 13.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 stocks and 1.0 triples in two games back, good for 47 fantasy points per contest. Golden State has been rolled by opponents as of late, so the Point God should show out again.

Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel

Murray has been absolutely incredible this season, so he’s a top option on any slate. Tonight, he’ll face a Memphis squad that’s continued to win even without Ja Morant, and the over/under is the highest on the slate at 233.5 over/under.

San Antonio is now the 10th seed in the West, and every win counts for a team that sold at the trade deadline and that no one believed could make the play-in game. Murray is an excellent play here.

Note: Murray is eligible at PG on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel


Top Value: Josh Christopher vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel

Christopher had his best game of the season Monday in the Rockets’ loss to the Spurs, going for 20 points, six boards, six assists, two steals and a block across 30 minutes.

The Rockets just shut down Eric Gordon, Dennis Schroder and Christian Wood for the season, so there should be plenty of minutes available for a guy like Christopher, one of the Rockets’ three first-round picks last year. At just $3.9K, he’s easily the best value on the slate in an excellent game environment against the Kings in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Boston Celtics – $8,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

After a letdown performance against the Nets, Butler bounced back against the Kings on Monday with a 27/7/5 line and a much-needed Heat victory.

The Celtics’ NBA-best defense offers quite a challenge for Jimmy Buckets, but Miami needs every win it can get right now, and this contest has seeding implications in the tight race for the East’s top spot. Butler’s price is comical at this point, and for less than $8K on FanDuel, you can easily fit him into lineups alongside multiple other studs.


Top Value: Aaron Wiggins vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel

Wiggins was masterful in Monday’s OT victory against the Blazers, posting a career-high 28 points to go with six dimes and five boards while scoring the Thunder’s final four points in the decisive extra quarter.

Tre Mann (hamstring) is a GTD, and all of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Darius Bazley and Lu Dort are out for the remainder of the season. Wiggins has 40-point upside, and he’s a tremendous value with a sub-$5K salary.

Note: Wiggins is eligible at SG/SF on DraftKings and SG on FanDuel.

Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel

It’s hard to find a guy who’s been hotter than Siakam in March. Spicy P has certainly lived up to his moniker this month with averages of 26.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 triples and 1.1 steals.

He dominated Boston’s thinned-out frontcourt with a season-high 40 points in Monday’s OT victory and added 13 rebounds and five stocks for good measure. Tonight’s matchup offers a 228 over/under and a two-point spread against a Timberwolves team that’s been red-hot on offense since the All-Star break.


Top Value: Kevin Love vs. Dallas Mavericks – $6,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

There’s a pretty big disparity in pricing tonight, as Love comes in $1,600 cheaper on FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating. Savvy DFS players should take note and make sure to get some exposure on DraftKings too. The inflated price should drive his ownership way down (a la Drew Eubanks’ 17% on Monday), so take advantage.

There’s a reason Love is our top value tonight. With no Jarrett Allen and no Evan Mobley, this frontcourt will be razor-thin, allowing the veteran forward to soak up plenty of minutes. He’s got a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus against Dallas and all the opportunity in the world.

What’s not to like?

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Center

Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Indiana Pacers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

The Joker went off for 26 points, 19 rebounds and 11 assists in Monday’s win over Charlotte for his third triple-double in the month of March. Jokic is in the hunt for a second consecutive MVP award and one of the West’s top-6 seeds, so there’s no way he slows down tonight at Indiana.

The Pacers frontcourt is in shambles right now, and Jokic gets one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the entire slate, regardless of position. His salary is understandably high, but he’s the only guy on this slate with an 80-point ceiling.


Top Value: Alperen Sengun vs. Sacramento Kings – $6,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Christian Wood has been shut down for the season, leaving Sengun to start in an excellent matchup against the Kings. Like Kevin Love above, make sure not to fade Sengun entirely on DraftKings, but take advantage of his 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Sengun has averaged a healthy 1.13 fantasy points per minute this season, and our model projects him to be on the court for 31 minutes tonight. He’s set up perfectly to add another strong game to this late-season surge.