The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Detroit Pistons – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
This is the spot in the article where I highlight the top ceiling play, and you don’t need to look any further for a sky-high ceiling than Trae Young.
Young has scored at least 45 real-life points in three of his last five games, and he gets another favorable Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons tonight. The over/under is 227.0, and the Hawks are just five-point favorites, meaning this one should be close and full of offense. Atlanta is 3-0 in Ice Trae’s recent 40-point outings, and with John Collins still out, expect him to keep shouldering a heavy offensive load.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell at Indiana Pacers – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
De’Aaron Fox will likely miss a third straight due to a hand injury, so we should see Davion Mitchell in the starting lineup again. Mitchell is fresh off the best game of his career, going for 28 points, nine assists, three rebounds, a steal and four triples against the Suns.
He’s got a 91% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but Mitchell should still be in play on DraftKings at a reasonable $5.2k salary. Kings/Pistons gets a favorable 235 over/under and strong Opponent Plus/Minus, so the rookie should be a staple in many builds on this busy slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Point-Book continues to get it done with Chris Paul sidelined, as the former has averaged 30.4 points, 6.0 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 3.2 triples and 1.4 steals across his last five while averaging nearly 47 fantasy points per game in the process.
The matchup with Minnesota sports a 236.5 over/under and just a 1.5-point spread in favor of Phoenix. This should be one of the best game environments for DFS, and Booker is a guy to build around. He’s got a 60-point ceiling with a sub-$10k salary.
Top Value: Joshua Primo at Portland Trail Blazers – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
With Doug McDermott out for the rest of the season, Primo has stepped into the starting lineup in each of the Spurs’ last two games and played at least 33 minutes in both.
The returns have been minimal, as Primo has averaged just 10.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist and 1.5 stocks in those two contests. We’ll continue to roll with him, as his salary is the bare minimum on FanDuel and near the minimum on DraftKings. Our model likes him as the best Points/Salary option at SG.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Memphis Grizzlies – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Durant has been tremendous since returning to the Nets’ lineup, averaging 30.8 points, 7.3 assists and 6.6 rebounds on 55/42/92 shooting splits across his last nine games.
Kyrie Irving will presumably be out there tonight when Brooklyn travels to Memphis, but we’re not backing off KD for that reason alone. This matchup has the highest over/under on the slate at 238, and the Grizz are favored by just 3.5 at home. Durant has the highest ceiling at SF in this star-studded affair.
Top Value: Justise Winslow vs. San Antonio Spurs – $5,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
After missing seven straight, Winslow has appeared in three of the Blazers’ last four games. Over his last two, he’s averaged 12.5 points, 7.0 boards, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks, good for nearly 34 fantasy points per game.
At his current salary, he’s a reasonable value on both sites and should be able to take advantage of a great Opponent Plus/Minus and excellent Pace Differential. San Antonio has been involved in plenty of high-scoring games this season, and tonight figures to be another one.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
LeBron continues to impress in Year 19, and what he’s been doing as of late defies all logic. Over his last three, King James has averaged 37.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 2.0 threes and 1.0 blocks, including a triple-double in Monday’s win over the Cavs.
Tonight’s matchup with Philly presents a tough challenge for James, and it’ll pit him against Joel Embiid as the two vie for this season’s scoring title. Philly is favored by 7.5 here, so James will need to be at his best to steal a win on the road tonight.
Top Value: Trey Lyles at Indiana Pacers – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Lyles has become a staple in the Kings’ starting lineup, and his play has been solid as of late. Lyles has averaged 12.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.8 triples and 1.6 stocks across his last four games.
With Domantas Sabonis out of action, Lyles figures to see plenty of minutes and increased usage in the frontcourt moving forward. Tonight’s tilt with Indiana offers a massive Opponent Plus/Minus and a healthy implied point total. Make sure to fit Lyles into your lineups tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Los Angeles Lakers – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Embiid sat out Monday’s win over Miami due to back soreness, but he’s off the injury report for tonight’s clash with LeBron James and Co. Embiid gets a favorable matchup against Los Angeles’
Embiid faltered in Sunday’s loss to the Raptors, posting just 21 points and 13 rebounds. In four games prior, he put up 34.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.1 stocks and 2.0 triples. In his first matchup with the Lakers this season, Embiid went for 26 points, nine rebounds, seven assists and three stocks.
Top Value: Damian Jones vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis injured his knee in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Suns, and Jones finished the game with a 13/7/1/2/1 line in 22 minutes.
Jones has played well in limited minutes this season, averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute, and our model projects him to be on the court for 25 minutes against the Pacers tonight in a matchup that offers the best Opponent Plus/Minus among centers. Jones is worth playing on FanDuel, but he’s a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and Trey Lyles is the better bang for your buck on FanDuel.
