DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Boston Celtics – $11,400
While this is a tough road matchup vs. the Celtics, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency, Gigelgeous-Alexander’s already massive role is going to grow to new heights tonight with Jalen Williams (hip) out. With the All-Star off the court this season, Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage increases 4.2 percentage points to a colossal 38.8% and his assist percentage jumps 6.7 percentage points to 35.7%, via the On/Off Tool.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s fantasy production increases to 1.8 DraftKings PPM in this situation, and his ceiling is the highest on the slate by over 10 points in our ShotQuality projections. While Gilgeous-Alexander is not the greatest value, perusing his unmatched ceiling in GPPs is a must tonight.
Top Value: Jamal Shead vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,400
With the Raptors clearly tanking, Shead is an excellent value play for all formats. RJ Barrett (personal), Immanuel Quickley (rest), and Gradey Dick (knee) are out, while Scottie Barnes (hand) is questionable. Even if Barnes plays, he has seen less than 30 minutes in four straight games, as Toronto is clearly trying to limit his minutes with the season winding down.
All in all, Shead should see over 30 minutes tonight, and this is an elite matchup vs. the 76ers, who are also tanking and rank dead last in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Shead is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM with a 19% usage rate with Barrett, Quickley, and Dick off the floor this season, and Shead is a core play at this $4,400 salary.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane vs. Utah Jazz – $8,300
Bane has displayed a huge ceiling with Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) out. In these last four with the big man sidelined, Bane has had outings of 57 and 68 DraftKings points. The Grizzlies will continue to be without Jackson Jr. tonight, and they are hosting the Jazz, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
Memphis’ implied team total is the highest on the slate by over seven points (129.75 points), and Bane could explode in this spot. Due to slight increases to all his rates, Bane is supplying 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Jackson Jr. off the floor this season, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: A.J. Lawson vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,000
Lawson is a must-play at this cheap price tag. Even with Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley all available Monday, Lawson erupted for a career-high 53.5 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards. In addition to 33 minutes of work off the bench, the guard handled a 29.9% usage rate in this showing.
Now, with Barrett and Quickley out and Barnes likely seeing a decreased workload even if he plays, Lawson should continue to see a huge workload and flourish against this horrible 76ers defense. While we can’t expect another outing over 50 DraftKings points, Lawson should destroy his low salary and finishes as one of the best values of the night. With Barrett, Quickley, and Dick off the floor this season, Lawson is generating 0.9 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Naji Marshall at San Antonio Spurs – $7,500
With Kyrie Irving (knee) out for the season and Anthony Davis (adductor) still sidelined, Marshall has taken on a featured role for the Mavericks and thrived. With those two starts unavailable for the last four, Marshall has led Dallas with 50 DraftKings points in 38 minutes per game. The veteran has ranked second on the team with a 27.5% usage rate, and with Davis currently without a timetable for a return, this mammoth workload for Marshall isn’t going anywhere.
While the forward’s salary on DraftKings has hit a season high, Marshall is still too cheap for his current role and he can be rostered with confidence against this Spurs defense that ranks 26th in efficiency.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,600
Opposite of Marshall, Johnson is a standout value play with Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) out for the season. Johnson is scoring 28.1 DraftKings points in 25.8 minutes per game with a 23% usage rate with Wembanyama inactive this season. Included in this average for Johnson is a 37.75 DraftKings point showing vs. the Mavericks on Monday, whom he will face again tonight.
Dallas ranks 25th in defensive rating since the All-Star Break, and to put a cherry on top, this game will be in San Antonio, which is huge news for Johnson. This season, the forward is averaging a significant 6.2 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road. In our ShotQuality projections, Johnson is the No. 1 forward value on the slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Atlanta Hawks – $8,600
Bridges is a great target in this beautiful matchup vs. the Hawks, who rank second in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency this season. This game carries the third-highest total on the slate (236.5 points), and Bridges has been a force recently, recording at least 54 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts.
Bridges is leading the Hornets with a 31.8% usage rate and 1.4 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star break, and he should have been priced over $9K in this elite spot vs. Atlanta.
Top Value: DaQuan Jefferies at Atlanta Hawks – $3,600
If Jefferies continues to start for the Hornets, he will be a solid punt play to consider. Getting the start Monday vs. the Heat, Jefferies finished with 20.25 DraftKings points across a season-high 34 minutes.
This was a strong result considering Miami ranks 12th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, and Jefferies will have much better upside against the Hawks if he maintains that starting job tonight. As noted above, Atlanta ranks second in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $9,400
The Heat are fighting for a playoff spot right now, and Adebayo has been putting the team on his back, surpassing 50 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts. Adebayo is logging 37.6 minutes per game during this time, and his usage has been up to 26.2%.
The Clippers are a tough matchup, ranking second in defensive efficiency this season, but they are playing their second game in two nights after losing to the Pelicans on Tuesday. New Orleans put up 127 points in this victory, and Adebayo has a 50 DraftKings point upside against this likely sluggish Los Angeles club.
Top Value: Orlando Robinson vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,100
While Jakob Poeltl (rest) will return tonight, the center has played less than 25 minutes in four of his last five games, and that trend should continue with the Raptors limiting their veterans recently. As a result, Robinson should see 25-30 minutes behind Poeltl, putting Robinson in a strong position to outproduce his cheap salary against this pitiful 76ers defense that ranks dead last in rating since the All-Star break.
Poeltl last played this past Saturday vs. the Wizards, and even with the veteran available, Robinson finished with 24.75 DraftKings points in 24 minutes off the bench.
