The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Philadelphia 76ers – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
With several high-priced point guards questionable or out tonight, Luka Doncic is the clear-cut best way to spend salary at this position. He is $12,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, which may seem a little high, but he has recorded 60+ DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Doncic may not be “having fun” right now, but he sure is playing well, averaging 32.3 points, 9.8 assists, nine rebounds, and a 38.6% usage rate per game in his last four games.
Prepare for a grind-it-out type of game as the Mavericks and 76ers both rank in the bottom four of Pace. Despite the slow pace, this game has a relatively high total of 231.5 points. The Mavericks are four-point underdogs and are on the outside looking in at the final spot in the play-in tournament. In his only game against the 76ers this season which happened in early March, Doncic had 42 points, 12 assists, and 69.5 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Devonte’ Graham vs. Utah Jazz – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Arguably the best game to target is this battle between the Spurs and Jazz, as the total is currently 234.5 points. The Spurs are six-point home underdogs, but they have a ton of value as Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan are all out. With those three off the floor, newly acquired Devonte’ Graham has a +4.6% usage rate and a +7.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Graham also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings tonight.
After a hot start, the Jazz have slowly crumbled down the Western Conference standings. Their defense specifically has taken a hit as they now rank 24th in Defensive Rating while allowing 117.8 points per game. The Jazz are also allowing 91.4 field goal attempts per game, which is tied for the third-highest in the league. Graham’s salary has come down to where he is a very strong value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel at the guard position.
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
It has been a March to remember thus far for Devin Booker, who is averaging 32.7 points per game while shooting a remarkable 56.5% from the field and 43.3% from behind the arc. Kevin Durant is expected back, but our model has him projected to play only 32 minutes making Booker still a strong option. Booker is known for being a scoring-dependent fantasy producer, but he has also averaged six rebounds and five assists per game in his last four games.
Opposite of the Mavericks and 76ers game, this matchup with the Timberwolves should be an up-tempo track meet. The Suns are six-point home favorites with an implied total of 120.25 points as the Timberwolves rank fifth in Pace. Booker will thrive in this game environment, especially with how well he has been playing. He is averaging a career-high 28.1 points per game while shooting 49.9% from the field and deserves consideration as a pay-up option.
Top Value: Keon Johnson vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The Trail Blazers are another team dealing with a plethora of injuries and players being shut down for the remainder of the season. Starters Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic are all out, which opens the door for several role players to see what they can do at this level. Keon Johnson is one of those players who has stepped up lately, averaging 15.3 points, 5.7 assists, and 28.5 DraftKings points per game in his last three games.
Regardless of blowouts, Johnson has still seen his minutes increase. He played 31 minutes last game, and the Trail Blazers lost by 34 points. They are 14-point underdogs tonight, which could benefit Johnson’s playing time again. This game is an elite environment as the Kings rank 26th in both Defensive Rating and points allowed, with 118.6 per game.
With a 26.7% usage rate in his last three games, expect Johnson to provide value yet again tonight.
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
The Clippers are in the thick of the Western Conference gauntlet as they currently are the No. 5 seed but are a half-game behind the No. 4 seed and a half-game ahead of the No. 6 seed. It will be interesting to see where they end up coming down the stretch as Paul George continues to sit with a knee injury. That will put a lot of pressure on Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 24.6 points and has a 29.7% usage rate in nine games without George this season.
As four-point underdogs, the Clippers will battle the Grizzlies, who are second in the Western Conference and rank inside the top 10 in Pace. Since the acquisition of Russell Westbrook, the Clippers are also playing much faster making this total climb to 233.5 points. Among all small forwards, Leonard has the highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
With no George, Leonard is a very intriguing pay-up option that isn’t all that popular.
Top Value: Nassir Little vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The best value on the entire slate for FanDuel and the second-best for DraftKings, according to our Projected Plus/Minus metric is Nassir Little. His upside is high, as shown by his game on Sunday night, where he scored 28 points and grabbed six rebounds while shooting 11 of 21 from the field. Little is projected to play 30 minutes, and with the lack of scoring for the Trail Blazers right now, his usage rate will continue to rise for the remainder of the season.
The Kings have been most vulnerable in the paint, where they are allowing 54.1 points per game, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league. Little’s size and athleticism can get him into the paint with ease, but he can also fill it up from the perimeter. Half of his attempts last game came from behind the arc, as the Kings are also allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from downtown, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league.
Little has the highest projected ownership on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Indiana Pacers – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Leading the slate with the highest ceiling is Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Priced at $11,600 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Giannis may get the luxury of playing without Khris Middleton, who is questionable. He may also go up against a Pacers backcourt that has Myles Turner questionable. Keep on eye on both Middleton’s and Turner’s status, as this would be an incredible spot for Giannis, making him the best pay-up option on the slate.
The Bucks continue to have the best record in the league as they lead the Celtics by 2.5 games for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They host them tomorrow, so this could be a look-ahead spot as they attempt to wrap up home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Giannis could sleepwalk his way into a monster game, especially if Turner isn’t in the paint to defend him. Even with him, they are allowing 52.2 points per game in the paint this season.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale vs. Houston Rockets – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Royce O’Neale is one of the most consistent value plays on the slate, and that goes a long way when looking at cash game value. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 14 games while averaging 23.8 DraftKings points per game over that time. Priced in the lower mid-range on both sites, O’Neale is a great way to differentiate from the Trail Blazers chalk. It also helps that the Nets are 11-point favorites with an implied team total of 220 points.
The Rockets continue to be the doormat of the Western Conference, as they have the second-worst record in the league at 18-58. They are allowing 118.8 points per game while having the second-worst Defensive Rating. Opponents are shooting 39 3-pointers per game against them, which is by far the highest in the league. That bodes well for O’Neale, who has made at least two 3-pointers in eight of his last nine games.
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Dallas Mavericks – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
After sitting out the last game, which plummeted his MVP stock, Joel Embiid is questionable to play tonight against the Mavericks. If he plays, Embiid should absolutely feast on the weak Mavericks frontcourt that ranks 28th in Rebounding Percentage (46.7%) and 19th in points allowed per game in the paint. The 76ers are four-point home favorites as they are basically locked into the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Embiid is averaging a league-high 33.3 points per game this season while shooting a career-high 54.5% from the field. His defense has also been on full display when he is on the court, as he is averaging 2.7 blocks per game in his last 10 games. In his only matchup against the Mavericks this season, Embiid scored 35 points while shooting 13 of 21 from the field. Given his lower ownership, Embiid is intriguing as he can easily be the highest scoring player on the slate.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Drew Eubanks remains egregiously underpriced, especially on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. It should be no surprise that Eubanks is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. Everyone on this Trail Blazers team looks like a great value with so many injuries, despite being 14-point home underdogs.
Eubanks has power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, which makes it very easy for him to fit into all lineup builds. His salary is much higher on FanDuel, but he is expected to play 30 minutes against a Kings frontcourt that gets torched in the paint, and that is impossible to ignore. Over the last three games with his extended minutes, Eubanks is averaging 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game while shooting 57.1% from the field.