The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
After getting ejected last game against the Timberwolves, Luka Doncic will get a chance for instant revenge in a rematch tonight. That ejection led to the end of a 30-point streak that went four-straight games and in eight of his last nine games. Doncic is averaging a career-high 32.5 points per game while shooting 49.4% from the field and 34.8% from behind the arc. He also ranks second in the league with a career-high 37.9% usage rate.
On yet another big slate, we have the decision between Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. These two are in a class of their own on DraftKings in terms of pricing. Before his ejection, Doncic looked well on his way to another triple-double as he leads the league with six this season. This is a great matchup for Doncic as the Timberwolves rank third in Pace and are allowing 115.9 points per game.
Prioritize Doncic on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Atlanta Hawks – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
After a strong performance last night, we’re going right back to the value well with Bulls point guard Alex Caruso. This is a back-to-back, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Zach LaVine sat tonight, as he has only played in two back-to-backs all season. Regardless if LaVine is playing or not, Caruso has by far the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all guards on DraftKings and has the fourth-highest on FanDuel as his price barely moved since last night.
Caruso continues to be able to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, but where he helps the Bulls the most is defensively, leading the team in steals. He had three steals last night to go along with seven points, six rebounds, and three assists. He is projected to play around 27 minutes and be one of the best values on the slate.
Prioritize Caruso on DraftKings, where he is only $3,800 and has a 91% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Reaching $10,000 for the first time all season on DraftKings, James Harden’s salary may come as a bit of a sticker shock. After shooting 50% or better for three-straight games, Harden got shut down by the Raptors last game, accumulating only 14 points despite playing 42 minutes. The 76ers have won five-straight games while averaging 121.8 points per game during that time. They are double-digit favorites at home against the Pistons, who rank 29th in Defensive Rating entering tonight’s games while allowing 117.9 points per game.
The 76ers are still playing without Tyrese Maxey, who is recovering from an ankle injury. Using our On/Off Tool, Harden has a team-high +2.5% usage rate when Maxey is off the floor this season. Harden is averaging 18 potential assists and 10.5 total assists per game, which ranks second in the league for both categories. There are several pay-up options on this slate, so Harden may be overlooked when he is in another great spot on a red-hot 76ers team.
Top Value: Isaiah Joe vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
With Josh Giddey out due to an illness, Isaiah Joe will get more playing time as the Thunder look to make it three-straight wins as they play a home game against the Trail Blazers. Joe has reached 20 DraftKings points frequently off the bench recently while scoring 30+ two games ago, playing a season-high 26 minutes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander receives the obvious boost without Giddey on the floor, but if Joe can get to 20+ minutes like projected, he is a strong value.
This is a rematch of their last game as the Thunder beat the Trail Blazers 123-121. Joe finished with 11 points while making three 3-pointers on seven field goal attempts. He has actually made eight 3-pointers in his last two games! With a 235 game total, there will be a lot of potential for fantasy points in this track meet. The Thunder rank fourth in Pace this season, while the Trail Blazers rank 23rd in Defensive Rating. Joe is a little too cheap in this high-total game.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Indiana Pacers – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Priced at $11,000 or higher on DraftKings for the fourth-straight game, Jayson Tatum has become an elite basketball player. He is in the running for the MVP, as the Celtics currently have a 22-9 record. Despite back-to-back home losses against the Magic, the Celtics are nearly double-digit favorites against the Pacers, who have lost eight of their last 11 games. The Celtics have the highest implied total on the entire slate with 121.75 points.
Tatum has increased his scoring every season since joining the league and is now averaging a career-high 30.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Robert Williams has returned for the Celtics, which does limit Tatum’s rebounding upside. The Pacers rank 25th in Rebounding Percentage this season, so Tatum can still reach double-digit rebounds, which increases his upside significantly. Tatum is another pay-up option who could go under the radar tonight.
Top Value: Patrick Williams at Atlanta Hawks – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Another value player worth running it back with from last night is Bulls forward Patrick Williams. He is the only player on the slate who ranks in the top five on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Projected Plus/Minus. Williams has scored double-digit points in six of his last eight games while averaging four assists per game in his last four. Despite his usage rate remaining in the mid-teens, Williams can still reach value quite easily at this salary on both sites.
The Bulls are six-point road underdogs as Dejounte Murray is finally back for the Hawks. This game has a 234 total, so getting exposure to Williams is a cheap way to attack this high total game. The Hawks will be without Clint Capela, so there is a chance for more rebounds to go around as well. The main reason Williams looks so strong is he is projected to play over 30 minutes. That much playing time provides plenty of opportunity for Williams to reach value.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Cleveland Cavaliers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
The best player on the best team right now is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks are a league-best 22-8 this season, while Giannis is another player who is averaging a career-high in points with 31 per game. He is also averaging double-digit rebounds for the sixth-straight year. It is tough not to get exposure to that type of upside. Similar to Doncic, Giannis looks much better on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
The Bucks are two-point road underdogs against the Cavaliers, who have the third-best record in the league this season. This is going to be a defensive battle, as both the Bucks and Cavaliers have the top two Defensive Ratings in the league. The Cavaliers are also allowed the second-fewest points per game in the paint. Despite the tough matchup, Giannis will likely be playing without Khris Middleton, who is doubtful.
With no Middleton, Giannis has seen an uptick in both production and usage rate, making him once again an elite play even in a difficult spot.
Top Value: Tari Eason vs. Orlando Magic – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
There are two players on the Rockets who look like superb values on DraftKings tonight. That would be Tari Eason and Eric Gordon. Priced much cheaper on DraftKings, Eason has a 97% Bargain Rating. Eason has averaged 23.5 minutes per game in his last two and is projected for a little over 20 minutes again tonight. In his rookie season, Eason is averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute, which ranks as the fourth-highest on the Rockets.
Eason has shown double-double upside even when the Rockets are fully healthy, as they have the best Rebounding Percentage in the league this season. The Magic are a pretty strong rebounding team themselves but rank 24th in Defensive Rating. Both teams have shown some life recently, with the Rockets beating the Bucks and Suns and the Magic winning at Boston in back-to-back games.
Prioritize Eason on DraftKings at his extremely cheap price tag.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Detroit Pistons – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Another 76ers pay-up option and arguably the best play on the slate is Joel Embiid. He currently leads the league in scoring while averaging a career-high 33 points per game while shooting over 50% for just the second time in his career. Embiid is also shooting a league and career-best 12 free throw attempts per game as he gets opposing frontcourts into foul trouble regularly. In this matchup, Embiid will be impossible to ignore.
The Pistons have a very young frontcourt who Embiid will get to play for the first time all season. They are allowing 54.2 points per game in the paint, which ranks as the third-highest in the league. Embiid is also third in the league in usage rate, averaging a career-high 37.1%. Unfortunately, the top two usage rate leaders are on this slate, but Embiid is significantly cheaper than both on DraftKings, where he needs to be prioritized with a 90% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Nikola Vucevic at Atlanta Hawks – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Similar to Deandre Ayton last night, Nikola Vucevic looks fantastic in the mid-range for centers. Vucevic is coming off of a 29-point, 12-rebound double-double where he had 50.5 DraftKings points. He has been awesome for the Bulls trying to save their season. Vucevic is averaging a double-double for the third-straight year for the Bulls and the 10th out of his last 12 seasons. He looks incredible once again in this matchup against the Hawks tonight.
One of the main reasons Vucevic looks so good in this spot is Clint Capela is out. Many will flock to his backup, Onyeka Okongwu, but don’t forget about Vucevic, who will also get a huge advantage in this spot. The Rockets are already allowing 53 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. Taking Capela out of the equation only amplifies the spot for Vucevic in the paint.
Expect the Bulls center to dominate tonight.
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