The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $12,600 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Despite a difficult matchup against the Cavaliers, we are certainly not getting a discount on Luka Doncic tonight. He is by far the highest-priced player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but Doncic has also been incredibly consistent. Doncic has scored 58 or more DraftKings points in seven-straight games. During that time, Doncic has three double-doubles and two triple-doubles. He is averaging a career-high in both scoring and usage rate with 37.6%.
The Cavaliers rank second in Defensive Rating while allowing a league-best 105.1 points per game. These two teams rank last and second-to-last in Pace, so it shouldn’t be surprising this game total is the lowest on the slate at 216.5 points. The Mavericks are two-point favorites as they are 11-4 at home this season. Despite the low total, Doncic still has an incredibly high ceiling and has a great chance to lead the entire slate in fantasy scoring tonight.
Top Value: Coby White vs. New York Knicks – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
With Alex Caruso probable and Ayo Dosunmu questionable, point guard Coby White looks like a strong value on tonight’s slate. White has seen his minutes trending up as he is coming off of back-to-back games with a double-digit positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He tied his season-high last game in minutes with 31 as he poured in 12 points while making four 3-pointers. If Dosunmu remains out tonight, White is a worthy value play.
The Bulls have won their last three home games, beating some tough competition in the Mavericks, Celtics, and Wizards. They are 4.5-point home favorites against the Knicks, who have won four-straight games. Where White can take advantage tonight is on the perimeter. The Knicks are allowing a league-high 38.7 3-point attempts per game. Prioritize White on DraftKings with the 3-point bonus, as he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus for point guards as well.
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Los Angeles Clippers – $9,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Another top ceiling player in a brutal matchup is Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards. The Timberwolves are in a very tough spot on the road against the Clippers, who rank fifth in Defensive Rating while allowing 108.7 points per game. In the eight games that Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have played together this season, their defense has been even better, allowing only 103.75 points per game. It’s a tough spot for the rollercoaster that is Anthony Edwards.
However, Edwards will greatly benefit with Karl-Anthony Towns out and potentially D’Angelo Russell, who is questionable to play. Using our On/Off Tool, Edwards has a team-high +2% usage rate and a +2.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Towns off the floor in 391 minutes. Those numbers increase to a +6.6% usage rate and a +12.1 Plus/Minus if Russell is also out. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard in case Russell is not able to play, as that would make Edwards a very sneaky tournament play in this difficult matchup.
Top Value: Gary Trent Jr. vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Gary Trent Jr.’s minutes were very volatile earlier this month and year, but now that OG Anunoby is out with an injury, that is no longer a problem. Trent Jr. has played 37.3 minutes per game over the last three games scoring over 20 points a night. He played 44 minutes in a non-overtime game last time out! We have Trent Jr. projected for over 38 minutes tonight and he is the best shooting guard value on the slate with no Anunoby in the lineup.
Using our On/Off Tool, Trent Jr. has played a team-high 241 minutes with no Anunoby and has a +1.4% usage rate and a +2.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He has over a 21% usage rate in each of his last three games while attempting 15 or more field goal attempts. Trent Jr. has recorded at least two steals in seven of his last 10 games, but other than that, he hasn’t done much besides simply scoring the ball.
Still, he is a great value on this slate.
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
There is a non-zero chance that one of Paul George or Kawhi Leonard sits out tonight’s game against the Timberwolves. The Clippers are playing the first game of a back-to-back as six-point home favorites as they get a much tougher test against the Suns tomorrow night. Both George and Leonard look great in this matchup, but if Leonard, who has only played in nine games this season, is unable to play, George may look like the best play on the slate.
The Timberwolves are tied for the league lead in Pace as they also rank 19th in Defensive Rating. Over the last three games, George has caught fire averaging over 30 points per game while shooting 42.9% from behind the arc. He has taken 20+ field goal attempts in each game with a usage rate of 34.8%. Pair his recent production with a great matchup, and George is poised for a great game. Prioritize George on FanDuel where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic at Orlando Magic – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
After missing the last game due to rest, Bogdan Bogdanovic is rating out as the second-best value player on DraftKings at $5,000. Prioritize Bogdanovic on DraftKings, where he is $1,000 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 97% Bargain Rating. He has scored 31 and 28 points in his last two games while positing over a +20 DraftKings Plus/Minus in both games. With no Dejounte Murray and John Collins, Bogdanovic looks fantastic on this slate.
With no Murray and Collins in the lineup, Bogdanovic has a +5.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus in his 114 minutes played. A very small sample size, but he has only played in five games all season. Trae Young is also listed as questionable, which, if he is ruled out, Bogdanovic would be a must-play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Magic rank 26th in Defensive Rating this season, so Bogdanovic should have his way with this poor defense.
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Losing back-to-back games against the Magic by double-digits was surprising to see from this Raptors team. Those losses dropped their record below .500 for the second time all season. They will get a chance to bounce back as five-point home favorites against the Kings tonight. The Kings are playing the second leg of a back-to-back after getting boat-raced last night by 20 points against the 76ers. The Raptors can easily have a similar outcome tonight.
Despite the negative record, Pascal Siakam has played like one of the best players in the league. His salary of well over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel may be a sticker shock, but Siakam deserves it. He has averaged a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists this season while he consistently flirts with triple-doubles. The Kings rank 25th in points allowed in the paint this season with 52.6 per game, so Siakam should get any shot that he wants in this spot. Similar to Trent Jr., Siakam will also benefit with no OG Anunoby on the floor.
Top Value: P.J. Washington vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
It has been a tough start to the year for the Hornets, who have a 7-20 record after losing five-straight games. Injuries continue to be the issue as they are playing without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Dennis Smith Jr., and Cody Martin. Power forward P.J. Washington looks fantastic in our tools as the highest projected Plus/Minus player at this position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, sitting at under $6,000 on both sites.
This month in five games, Washington is stuffing the stat sheet averaging 12.2 points 4.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game. He has played 32 minutes a night as he is one of the focal points of this Hornets offense right now. This is a great matchup for Washington to potentially record his second double-double of the season. The Pistons rank 29th in Defensive Rating, 20th in Rebounding Percentage, and are allowing 117 points per game.
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Washington Wizards – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Priced at $11,800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Nikola Jokic has the second-highest ceiling on the slate behind only Doncic in our Tournament Model. Michael Porter Jr. remains out for the Nuggets, which has boosted Jokic’s ceiling yet again. He is coming off of his fourth triple-double of the season, where he had 31 points, 14 assists, 12 rebounds, and even four blocks. Jokic finished with a season-high 80.5 DraftKings points that game.
Tonight Jokic will draw a matchup against the much smaller Kristaps Porzingis. Over the last two seasons in games against Porzingis, Jokic is averaging 27.5 points and 12 rebounds per game while shooting 58.9% from the field. In fact, Jokic has shot well over 50% from the field against Porzingis in nine-straight games. Expect Jokic to continue to bulldoze Porzinigis in the paint and threat for another triple-double against the Wizards, who have lost seven straight.
Top Value: Charles Bassey vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The best value on the entire slate for DraftKings is Spurs center, Charles Bassey. At $4,100, Bassey has a 97% Bargain Rating as he has a slight chance to start as Jakob Poeltl is out and Zach Collins is doubtful to play tonight. Even if Bassey comes off the bench, he is averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in his first season with the Spurs. He has double-double upside despite rarely reaching over 20 minutes in any game this season.
The Trail Blazers have allowed 60 points per game in the paint in their last three games, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league during that time. They are an above-average rebounding team, but Bassey still has upside in that department. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 231.5 points as there will be plenty of opportunities for Bassey to stuff the stat sheet. Prioritize Bassey on DraftKings at this very cheap salary.
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