NBA

NBA DFS (Tuesday, Oct. 24): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

By Tyler Schmidt @tyschmidt4
Oct 24, 2023

The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

Point Guard

Top Ceiling: Jamal Murray vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $7,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel

If last year’s Western Conference Finals series is any indication of how tonight’s game will go, getting exposure to Jamal Murray is a necessity. In that Nuggets’ four-game sweep, Murray averaged 32.5 points and 56.1 DraftKings points per game while shooting 52.7% from the field and 40.5% from behind the arc. He is too cheap on both sites if that Murray shows up.

This is an elite matchup for Murray, as the Lakers played at the fourth-fastest Pace last season at 101.92. They also allowed the fifth-most 3-point attempts in the league, which is where Murray thrived in the playoffs averaging 3.8 3-pointers made per game against them. Murray is projected to play around 34 minutes and is one of the best guards on DraftKings tonight.

Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel

Chris Paul has the biggest pricing discrepancies on the slate. At $5,600 on DraftKings, Paul is drawing over 80% projected ownership with a 99% Bargain Rating. He is still in play on FanDuel at $8,000, but the value on DraftKings looks much more appealing. Paul fit in perfectly with the Warriors’ style of play in the preseason, as he made six of his nine 3-point attempts.

Paul led the team in the preseason with 5.8 assists per game, which may be his main role tonight as the Warriors’ regular assists leader Draymond Green is out with an injury. Paul is projected to start at point guard and play over 30 minutes against his former team. With his cheap salary, prioritize Paul on DraftKings, where he is easy to fit into all lineup builds.

Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel

Stephen Curry has the highest projected ceiling among all non-centers on this two-game slate. He is coming off another incredible season where he averaged nearly 30 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the field, 42.7% from downtown, and 91.5% from the charity stripe. The sharpshooter led the league in 3-pointers made per game for the third straight year.

Curry picked up right where he left off in the preseason, scoring 30 points on 10 of 18 shooting against the Kings in the only game the starters played over 30 minutes. The Warriors are implied for a slate-high 117.75 points as they look to lead the league in Pace of play again this season. In his last eight opening night starts, Curry is averaging 27.6 points per game.

Top Value: Eric Gordon at Golden State Warriors – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel

Bradley Beal is not expected to play tonight with a back injury, and Devin Booker is questionable. That opens things up for veteran shooting guard Eric Gordon to be one of the most popular punt plays on the slate. Priced under $4,500 on both sites, Gordon has a great chance to be in the optimal lineup. He is projected to play around 31 minutes and serve as the Suns starting shooting guard. Gordon’s main risk is his inability to provide peripherals, but his cheap salary negates that risk.

In his first season with the Suns, Gordon has looked good thus far in the preseason. He had one 20-point game against the Trail Blazers, where he only played 18 minutes. In that game, Gordon shot 8-for-10 from the field, including three 3-pointers.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Denver Nuggets – $9,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel

Getting exposure to LeBron James early in the season before the wear and tear gets to his body is always a great game plan. In his last two opening night games, James averaged 32.5 points, 13 rebounds, and 61.8 DraftKings points per game.

At 38 years old, James is coming off another spectacular season, averaging a team-high 28.9 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. Despite playing extremely slow, the Nuggets Defensive Rating wasn’t that impressive ranking 15th in the league at 113.5. James was able to exploit this matchup in the Western Conference Finals, averaging a near triple-double with 27.8 points, 10 assists, and 9.5 rebounds per game. At around 20% ownership, James is a contrarian play.

Top Value: Andrew Wiggins vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel

Another Warriors’ value player who looks great in our tools tonight is Andrew Wiggins. With Green off the floor last season, Wiggins had a team-high +7.37 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +6 Net Rating. In the one game Wiggins played without Green, he finished with 10 rebounds. This is a great spot to roster Wiggins at this price, as he has a sneaky shot at a double-double.

Projected to come in above 60% projected ownership on DraftKings, Wiggins is an elite salary saver to fit in the studs. Since joining the Warriors in 2019, Wiggins’ shooting efficiency has skyrocketed. He has put together three consecutive seasons with 38% or better shooting from the perimeter. His usage rate and peripherals will increase in this matchup without Green.

Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Golden State Warriors – $8,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel

With Bradley Beal not expected to play and Devin Booker questionable, Kevin Durant could be relied upon heavily in the Suns season opener. Expect his ownership to rise if Booker is ruled out. Keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock.

Durant only played eight regular season games with the Suns last year after getting traded from the Nets. However, his stats were incredible as he shot 57% from the field and 53.7% from behind the arc. Durant has shot 50% or better in 11 straight seasons. Impressive for someone who averages five 3-point attempts per game. With Green out for the Warriors last year, their Defensive Rating dropped from 114.8 to 118.4. This is a great opportunity for Durant that could get even better tonight.

Top Value: Aaron Gordon vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

Priced at $5,700 on both sites, Aaron Gordon will be one of the most popular values on FanDuel tonight. His game sets up perfectly for FanDuel, and with the tighter pricing, Gordon’s cheaper salary will be beneficial for all lineup builds. Since joining the Nuggets, Gordon has shot 50% or better in each of the past three seasons, and his rebounding has increased each year.

With all of the attention going to his teammates Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, Gordon is freed up for plenty of easy dunks and open perimeter jump shots. Gordon was a machine on the offensive glass last season, averaging 2.4 offensive rebounds per game. With his inexpensive salary, prioritize Gordon on FanDuel as he has an 83% Bargain Rating and 6 Pro Trends.

Center

Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $10,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel

With so many available punt plays on this two-game slate, Nikola Jokic is going to make his way into a plethora of optimal lineup builds. After winning the MVP Award in back-to-back seasons, Jokic had another fantastic year where he almost averaged a triple-double with 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game. He shot a career-high 63.2% from the field and averaged 59.1 DraftKings points per game. Jokic has the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Model for this slate.

Despite Anthony Davis leading the league in rebounds and having two blocks per game, Jokic had no trouble in this matchup. In their playoff series, Jokic averaged a triple-double with 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game.

Top Value: Kevon Looney vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

The more the Warriors rely on Kevon Looney, the better he seems to get. Last season, Looney averaged a career-high in points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, and minutes played per game. He is another player who benefits from Green being out of the lineup. In nine games without Green last season, Looney averaged 10.8 rebounds per game. In the playoffs last season, Looney averaged a ridiculous 13.1 rebounds and 19.8 rebound chances per game. Both team highs.

Looney will likely only play 25-30 minutes tonight, but it does help that the Suns added Jusuf Nurkic. Expect both Looney and Nurkic to sub in and out together most of the night. He is more reasonable on DraftKings fitting in two center options.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.