The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Atlanta Hawks – $9,000 DraftKings
After four straight below-average games against difficult defenses, Damian Lillard bounced back with a strong performance against a depleted Mavericks team, scoring 28 points and adding six rebounds and six assists. Lillard will now draw a fantastic matchup against a Hawks team that ranks second in pace and 20th in defensive rating. The Bucks’ are seven-point road favorites, implied for 123.25 points tonight.
In his second year with the Bucks, Lillard is averaging more points, rebounds, and assists per game with better shooting percentages across the board this year than he did last year. He is more than capable of posting ceiling performances, especially in this matchup. In the last game Lillard faced the Hawks, he had a near triple-double with 23 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds. This is a great spot to play Dame Dolla.
Top Value: Ty Jerome at Chicago Bulls – $5,100 DraftKings
Cavaliers’ backup point guard Ty Jerome is coming off his third 20-point performance in his last four games. He added a season-high six steals, accumulating over 50 DraftKings points against a pitiful Trail Blazers team. Jerome will get another favorable matchup tonight against a tanking Bulls team that ranks 26th in defensive rating and third in pace. Jerome has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
In his first full season with the Cavaliers, Jerome has been a great asset off the bench. He is competing for 6th Man of the Year and averaging a career-high 12 points per game, while shooting 51.6% from the field and 44.9% from behind the arc. Priced just above $5,000, Jerome is a cheap way to get exposure to the Cavaliers’ slate-high 128.5-point team total. He is also drawing around 25% ownership in this spot.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Chicago Bulls – $8,700 DraftKings
Sticking with the Cavaliers backcourt, Donovan Mitchell does not have an injury designation after missing the last game due to rest. The rest was deserving after Mitchell led the Cavaliers to a comeback victory over the Celtics, scoring 41 points on 13-for-26 shooting from the field. Mitchell will look to stay hot, getting to feast on a Bulls defense that he has scored 36 and 37 points against in their two previous meetings.
This is by far the best game environment on the slate with a 245.5-point total. The Cavaliers are 12-point road favorites looking to get one step closer to securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Most of Mitchell’s fantasy production this year has come from scoring the ball. His peripherals have depleted, but he is still capable of posting big games. Mitchell is projected for the second-highest ceiling on the slate.
Top Value: Aaron Nesmith vs. Houston Rockets – $4,500 DraftKings
With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Aaron Nesmith is one of the best values available. He is coming off a season-high 27 points against the Bulls, where he shot 9-for-16 from the field, including 6-for-11 from behind the arc. In his last five games, Nesmith is averaging 16.4 points per game while shooting 53.7% from the field. He is starting to find his groove since returning from injury in mid-January.
Pacers’ forward Bennedict Mathurin is doubtful to play tonight, which will continue to provide a boost to Nesmith’s production. The Rockets have been a difficult matchup to target, but Nesmith’s cheap salary and dual eligibility are impossible to ignore on this slate. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six consecutive games and will not have to do much at his $4,500 price tag to make it seven straight games.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner vs. Toronto Raptors – $8,100 DraftKings
Leading this position in projected ceiling, projected Plus/Minus, and ownership is Magic forward Franz Wagner. He has been consistent recently, but not good enough to pay off his price tag with seven straight games having a negative Plus/Minus. However, his price has decreased to $8,100, and the matchup against the Raptors, who rank 24th in defensive rating this season, sets up perfectly for Wagner.
Do not get carried away with this game due to the extremely low 209-point total. The Magic are favored but are still implied for only 108 points. In the one game Wagner played the Raptors, he poured in 25 points, shooting 9-for-17 from the field. That has been a typical output for the four-year pro. He is averaging a career and team-high 25 points per game this season. His price tag tonight is very intriguing.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Brooklyn Nets – $4,600 DraftKings
Sunday night’s game against the Thunder was the first time in his last seven games where Keldon Johnson failed to record double-digit points. In that seven-game stretch, Johnson has averaged 13.9 points per game with five games with a positive Plus/Minus. That was also the start of the schedule when Victor Wembanyama has been out. With Wembanyama out of the lineup, Johnson has stepped up in a big way. With dual forward eligibility and a favorable $4,600 salary, he is easy to fit into any lineup build.
The Spurs are four-point home favorites against the Nets, who rank 23rd in defensive rating and 24th in rebounding percentage. Projected to play 28 minutes and come off the bench, Johnson is another cheap player to target tonight. This matchup sets up perfectly for Johnson to continue filling up the stat sheet.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Atlanta Hawks – $11,000 DraftKings
This seven-game slate comes down to the decision to play Giannis Antetokounmpo or not. The Greek Freak is far and away the best and basically only pay-up option on the slate. He is the only player priced over $10,000 and his projected ceiling is 12 fantasy points more than the next closest player. Giannis is having a great year averaging 30.9 points and 12.1 rebounds per game, shooting 60.6% from the field.
The Hawks have their work cut out for them trying to defend Giannis. They are allowing 50.4 points per game in the paint this season, which is the fifth-highest in the league. In their two meetings, Giannis is averaging 31.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game with a remarkable 22 free-throw attempts per game. With a 38% projected usage rate, Giannis is the clear-cut top option on the slate. Do not get cute tonight.
Top Value: Julius Randle vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $6,500 DraftKings
After missing the last 13 games due to injury, Julius Randle returned last game and did not miss a beat, recording 20 points, six rebounds, and three assists and shooting 8-for-14 from the field in 34 minutes. However, he is currently questionable, so make sure to monitor his status throughout the day. This is the first leg of a back-to-back with a road game in Charlotte tomorrow. If Randle is able to suit up today, he will do so without Rudy Gobert, who is still out. That will provide a significant boost to his fantasy production.
With Gobert off the floor this season, Randle leads the team with a +3.22 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). The Timberwolves are a slate-high 13.5-point home favorite against a depleted 76ers team. If Randle is able to play, he is an elite mid-range option that is drawing nearly 30% projected ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,800 DraftKings
Another questionable player that is worth targeting is Knicks’ center Karl-Anthony Towns. However, his questionable tag is personal, so not injury related. The center position in general has a ton of injury news. If Towns is able to suit up, he is an incredible contrarian pay-up option. He is currently drawing less than 5% projected ownership, which is crazy for Towns, who has had one of the best seasons of his career.
In his first season with the Knicks, Towns is averaging a massive double-double with 24.5 points and a career-high 13.4 rebounds per game. He is shooting a remarkable 53% from the field and 42.5% from behind the arc, making at least two 3-pointers per game for the sixth straight season. The Warriors have been a top-10 defensive unit, but Towns is a matchup nightmare. Towns is a strong tournament option.
Top Value: Jarrett Allen at Chicago Bulls – $6,200 DraftKings
Drawing the highest projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership is Cavaliers’ center Jarrett Allen. His frontcourt mate Evan Mobley is ruled out, which boosts Allen’s usage rate and production. Not only is Mobley out, but so is Bulls’ starting center Nikola Vucevic. Allen will have a field day against a very weak Bulls frontcourt that already ranks dead last, allowing 55.1 points per game in the paint this season.
Despite averaging less than 30 minutes a night, Allen is still averaging a double-double with 13.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He is shooting a career-best 70.7% from the field. Allen is a staple in cash games and a fantastic mid-range tournament option. The upside without Mobley and the elite matchup sets him up for a ceiling performance. It is recommended to get over Allen’s projected ownership.
