The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $11,400 DraftKings
There are many players at the top of the pricing tier who are questionable for tonight’s eight-game slate. One player that is not is current MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranks second in projected ceiling. Leading the league with a career-high 32.6 points per game while shooting 51.9% from the field, Gilgeous-Alexander has been a steady fantasy producer this season and is a top pay-up option tonight.
The Thunder are 15-point home favorites against the Lakers, with Luka Doncic and LeBron James both questionable to play. This game could get out of hand early if both are ruled out, which could hurt the ceiling for Gilgeous-Alexander. However, with Doncic and James projected in, Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to play 34 minutes with a 35% usage rate. He is difficult to ignore on a slate with plenty of value available.
Top Value: Ty Jerome vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,500 DraftKings
Speaking of value, Cavaliers’ point guard Ty Jerome leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus by a comfortable margin. Donovan Mitchell is out tonight, which provides a significant boost to Jerome’s outlook. When Mitchell is off the floor this year, Jerome has increased his usage rate by +3.19% and has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute (per our On/Off tool).
Despite Mitchell being out, the Cavaliers are still 12.5-point home favorites against the Bulls. This game features the highest total on the slate at 240 points, and the Bulls are one of the best matchups for opposing guards. They rank second in pace and 23rd in defensive rating, allowing 119.9 points per game. Jerome is a cheap way to get exposure to the Cavaliers’ offense.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Milwaukee Bucks – $9,400 DraftKings
The Timberwolves have won five-straight games and are in an incredible battle for seeding in the Western Conference. They are 5.5-point road favorites against the Bucks, who are still without Damian Lillard. Anthony Edwards is leading the Timberwolves with a career-high 27.4 points per game and leads this slate with the highest projected ceiling at shooting. He has averaged 28.8 points and 47 DraftKings points per game in their five-game winning streak.
In his only game against the Bucks, Edwards scored 28 points with seven rebounds while attempting an absurd 33 field goals, including 17 3-point attempts. He is projected for a 29.4% usage rate and is not afraid to let it fly. That is what we are looking for when targeting pay-up options for ceiling performances.
Top Value: Dalen Terry at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,500 DraftKings
Bulls’ third-year pro Dalen Terry has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer recently. However, the Bulls will be playing tonight’s game without Coby White, Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter, and Lonzo Ball, while Josh Giddey and Nikola Vucevic are listed as questionable. Terry is projected to start and play 29 minutes and leads all shooting guards in projected Plus/Minus. He is a great value that could look even better tonight.
Terry has displayed a ceiling when getting playing time. He has recorded at least 20 DraftKings points in six of his last 11 games. With so many injuries, Terry has a great chance for another ceiling performance tonight. The Cavaliers have a top-10 defense, but Terry does not have to do much to return value. It helps that he has shooting guard and small forward eligibility, making it easy to fit him into all lineup builds.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at New York Knicks – $10,200 DraftKings
The Celtics’ big three of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis are all questionable to play. Keep an eye on their starting lineup. If any or all of these players are ruled out, it is going to have a massive impact on the slate.
Tatum is the clear-cut best option from the Celtics if he is able to suit up. He leads the team in points, rebounds and assists per game and would benefit significantly if Brown or Porzingis is out.
The Celtics are 1.5-point road underdogs to the Knicks, who finally have a healthy roster back in action. That spread leads me to believe one of these three stars is going to play. If it is not Tatum, then Brown is the next option, and he’s seen a team-high +4.01% usage rate bump with Tatum off the floor. If both are out, then value forward Sam Hauser at $4,400 would be a great option.
Top Value: Maxwell Lewis vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,500 DraftKings
The Nets are another team with many injuries to their starting rotation. That said, they are still three-point home favorites against the Pelicans, who are another decimated team. Maxwell Lewis is expected to draw his second start of the season and his career after back-to-back games scoring double-digit points. In those two games, he averaged 11.5 points, five rebounds, and 23.25 DraftKings points per game with a 21.1% usage rate.
This matchup features the lowest game total on the slate at 213.5 points. The Nets play at the second-slowest pace in the league, while the Pelicans are below average. Expect a low-scoring, slow-paced game not filled with much fantasy goodness. However, Lewis, who is priced at a cheap $3,500, will be a valuable option to target. He is projected to play 28 minutes with the highest projected Plus/Minus at this position.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,600 DraftKings
Leading this eight-game slate in projected ceiling is Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has been dominant in his last three games, averaging 36 points, 13.7 assists, 12.3 rebounds, and an absurd 79.4 DraftKings points per game while shooting 63.8% from the field. No one has a similar ceiling to Giannis on this slate, which is why he is clearly the top pay-up option despite an elevated $12,600 salary.
The Timberwolves rank just outside the top 10 in rebounding percentage and points allowed per game in the paint. They rank sixth in defensive rating overall, making this a fairly difficult matchup for Giannis. However, playing without Lillard boosts Giannis’ production even more. He has two triple-doubles and one double-double in his last three games, with a 32.9% usage rate.
Top Value: Patrick Williams at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,700 DraftKings
Patrick Williams is the only regular starter who is not out or questionable for the Bulls tonight. That alone is making him pop in our Models as the best power forward value on the slate. Projected to play 28 minutes, Williams should not be priced below $4,000. He has scored double-digit points in four of his last eight games with a positive Plus/Minus in five of those contests. Williams may be inconsistent, but his outlook for tonight’s game looks fantastic with so many injuries to the Bulls’ roster.
Williams has also found a ton of success in this matchup against the Cavaliers. In his two games in this spot this season, Williams is averaging 15 points, 6.5 rebounds, and six assists while shooting 50% from the field and 58.3% from behind the arc. A repeat performance would make him an elite value play.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Evan Mobley vs. Chicago Bulls – $8,900 DraftKings
With power forward and center eligibility, Evan Mobley has the second-highest projected ceiling at this position. Mobley is another Cavaliers player who will benefit from the absence of Mitchell. He does not see the biggest boost on the team, but Mobley has averaged a stout 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell off the floor.
Mobley will also benefit if Bulls’ center Nikola Vucevic is unable to play due to injury. The Bulls already allow the most points in the paint at 54.4 per game while ranking 20th in rebounding percentage. Mobley has recorded a double-double in five of his last nine games and has a great opportunity to make it six of his last 10. With a 26.5% projected usage rate, Mobley is the best center to target in the top tier.
Top Value: Zach Edey at Charlotte Hornets – $5,400 DraftKings
Grizzlies’ rookie Zach Edey is quickly turning into one of the best rebounders in the league. He has captured double-digit rebounds in four of his last five games while averaging 12.6 rebounds per game during that stretch. Edey does have two double-doubles in that stretch, but scoring has not been a priority recently for Edey. He is still providing value simply by being a monster on the glass with a double-digit Plus/Minus in three of his last five games.
The Hornets and center Mark Williams continue to be a difficult matchup for opposing big men, but Edey’s size may be impossible to keep off the glass. Edey is four inches taller than Williams and 65 lbs heavier. He is a load to deal with down low and has been playing a high level of basketball recently.
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Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Photo Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
