Wednesday features Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs managed to win an instant classic on the road in Game 1, so the Thunder will look to even the series before heading to San Antonio. They’re listed as 6.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 216.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
What an absolutely insane start to the conference finals. The Spurs and Thunder played a double-OT thriller in Game 1 of their series, followed by a 22-point fourth-quarter comeback in Game 1 of Knicks-Cavaliers on Monday. It was an elite payoff after struggling through the slog of the second half of the regular season.
Without hyperbole, Victor Wembanyama turned in one of the greatest playoff performances I have ever witnessed in Game 1. He was an absolute menace on both ends of the floor. He racked up 41 points and 24 rebounds, and he altered countless shots and drives on defense. Wemby ultimately finished with 84.0 DraftKings points while playing just under 49 minutes.
Very few players in basketball have the same per-minute impact as Wembanyama for fantasy purposes. His numbers were kept in check by averaging just 29.2 minutes during the regular season, but Wembanyama has played significantly more in the playoffs. That’s a terrifying proposition. He’s now played more than 34 minutes in three playoff games, and he’s logged 84.0, 73.75, 64.25, and 68.5 DraftKings points.
Wembanyama should continue to see an expanded workload in this series. He’s projected for 36 minutes in Game 2, and that could be a conservative estimate. It gives him the top median and ceiling projections by a wide margin, albeit at the most expensive price tag.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the other stud on this slate, and he would be the clear top dog in most other series. He took home his second consecutive MVP trophy this season, averaging 31.1 points per game on 55.3% shooting. He’s turned in some of the most effective guard seasons since Michael Jordan, and he’s on the trajectory of being an all-time great player.
However, SGA has clearly been impacted by Wembanyama’s presence on defense. He was held to just 24 points in Game 1 on a paltry 7-23 shooting. The Thunder are now 1-5 against the Spurs for the year, so they’re going to have to search for some answers before Game 2.
The good news is that Gilgeous-Alexander should be better on Wednesday. His numbers vs. the Spurs during the regular season were still excellent, averaging 29.5 points per game on 50.6% shooting. SGA also managed to salvage his fantasy stock in Game 1 by handing out 12 assists and racking up five steals.
Ultimately, expect him to bounce back in what feels like a must-win contest. He stands out as the better pure value in the stud tier, and he leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
SGA should undoubtedly play better on Wednesday, but what about Chet Holmgren? He was almost invisible in Game 1, finishing with just eight points, eight rebounds, and 24.5 DraftKings points.
Unlike SGA, Holmgren’s numbers vs. the Spurs this season don’t inspire much confidence. He averaged just 10.5 points and 8.0 rebounds in four regular-season matchups, so it’s a lot harder to get excited about a potential bounce-back. His length is normally a huge asset for him, but it is completely negated standing next to Wembanyama.
That said, Holmgren still grades out pretty well in our NBA Models. He’s an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s projected for 32 minutes at a pretty reasonable price tag. Holmgren has historically averaged 36.45 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool), and his current salary comes with an implied total of just 30.69.
De’Aron Fox is the big wild card for the Spurs on Wednesday. He was surprisingly out of the lineup for Game 1, and he’s officially questionable for Game 2. Head coach Mitch Johnson said he has “no idea” if Fox will be able to suit up, so it’s going to be essential to monitor heading into tip-off.
If Fox is able to go, he will give the Spurs the steadying presence that they missed at times in Game 1. They had 23 turnovers on Monday, so Fox should help in that department at a bare minimum.
Fox has also been a strong complementary scorer for the Spurs throughout the playoffs. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in the final three games of their series vs. the Timberwolves, including 44.5 DraftKings points in just 24.4 minutes in the closeout win. He could be a bit overlooked if he does return for Game 2, making him an interesting target for tournaments.
If Fox is out, the rest of the Spurs are going to have to pick up the slack. That starts with Stephon Castle. He’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Fox off the floor this season, and he saw a huge boost as a distributor in Game 1. He handed out 11 dimes in that contest, though he also had 11 turnovers. The good far outweighed the bad, with Castle racking up 39.5 DraftKings points.
Castle has the potential for even more if Fox is out on Wednesday. He averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with Fox off the floor during the regular season, and he could play upwards of 40 minutes in Game 2. The Thunder are a tough defensive matchup, but Castle would have significant upside in that scenario.
The same is true for Dylan Harper. He moved into the starting lineup in place of Fox in Game 1, and he proved that he is ready for the spotlight at just 20 years old. He had a massive performance, racking up 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and seven steals, resulting in 62.25 DraftKings points.
Harper has been the Spurs’ ultimate insurance policy all season. They’ve kept his minutes down with the team at full strength, but he has been able to pick up the slack whenever called upon. That could be a lot more often during the playoffs.
Still, Harper’s value will be significantly higher with Fox out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for just 26.5 minutes, but that number would skyrocket if Fox is ruled out once again. He would become close to a must-play in that scenario.
Welcome back to the playoffs, Jalen Williams. Nothing like facing a 7’5” alien and one of the best defenses in basketball after a few weeks off.
Williams looked a bit fatigued by the end of the game, but it was still a pretty impressive return to the lineup. He posted a 35.7% usage rate in his 37.3 minutes, and he racked up 42.75 DraftKings points.
The Thunder have one of the deepest rosters in basketball, but they’re going to need Williams to play like his peak self to get past San Antonio. He was their clear No. 2 option on offense during last year’s run, and he looked like he’s ready to be that guy on Monday. He led the team with 25 shot attempts, and his price tag is down from $9,400 during his previous series.
Ajay Mitchell has been a breakout star for the Thunder this season, but he was almost non-existent in Game 1. He had just a 7% usage rate in his 33.6 minutes, and he racked up just 20.5 DraftKings points. With Williams now back in the fold, it appears as though he’s not going to have as much of a role on offense. That makes him a risky choice at $7,200.
Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie round out the Spurs’ starting five. Neither player brings a huge ceiling to the table, but both guys have provided steady value throughout the postseason. Like the rest of the Spurs’ role players, they would see significant boosts if Fox is unable to suit up. Both guys played a ton of minutes sans Fox in Game 1, and they both responded with a positive Plus/Minus. Vassell has the slight edge from a projections standpoint, but Champagnie is expected to garner less than half the ownership.
Alex Caruso would have been the hero for the Thunder in Game 1 if they were able to pull off the victory. He knocked down eight 3-pointers on offense while providing countless big plays on defense. He was even tasked with guarding Wembanyama at times, despite being nearly 1.5 feet shorter.
The way the Spurs chose to defend Caruso in Game 1 could result in another big game. They basically left him wide open on offense, and he ultimately made them pay. However, that defensive philosophy helped them shut down SGA, so they may go back to it again in Game 2.
Regardless, Caruso has established himself as one of the most important role players in the Thunder rotation. They didn’t need to lean on him very often during the regular season, but he’s going to have to carry a large workload in this series.
Sadly, the same will not be said for Isaiah Hartenstein. He’s a solid NBA big man, but he is simply unplayable vs. the Spurs. He left the first quarter after just two minutes in Game 1, and he logged just 12.2 minutes overall. I wouldn’t expect much different in Game 2, so he’s not really on the fantasy radar at $5,000.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Cason Wallace ($4,400): Wallace has fallen behind Caruso and Mitchell in the pecking order, which is going to have an impact on his playing time in this series. However, he still saw 28.2 minutes in Game 1, and he’s projected for 26 minutes in Game 2. He racked up 20 DraftKings points on Monday, and he could produce at a similar level on Wednesday.
- Keldon Johnson ($4,000): Johnson took home the Sixth Man of the Year award this season, but he has not been as important for the team during the playoffs. Harper has been the team’s best reserve when at full strength, and Johnson didn’t see a spike sans Fox in Game 1. He played just 21.6 minutes, and he finished with just 14.0 DraftKings points. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his past four outings.
- Lu Dort ($3,600): Dort is an excellent defender, but he doesn’t have the offensive capabilities of some of the other Thunder role players. He was just 1-5 from 3-point range in Game 1, and if he can’t provide some outside shooting, his minutes are going to suffer. He’s still projected for 24 minutes in Game 2, but he’s a terrible per-minute producer.
- Luke Kornet ($3,000): Kornet gets the backup center minutes for San Antonio. Unfortunately for him, those are getting tougher to come by as the playoffs progress. Wembanyama played all but 10 minutes in Game 1 of this series, which doesn’t leave much for Kornet. The Spurs were -9 with Wembanyama off the floor in that contest, so it’s possible that they push him even more moving forward.
- Jared McCain ($2,800): McCain was a sharp midseason acquisition for the Thunder, but he’s not going to play a ton with the team at full strength. He saw just 18.2 minutes in Game 1, and he’s projected for less than 10 minutes in Game 2.
- Carter Bryant ($2,400): Bryant was the Spurs’ other first-round draft pick in 2025, and he has given the team some solid minutes during the playoffs. He had just 7.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, but that was still enough to return positive value. He’s now done that in three straight games, and he should maintain a role off the bench moving forward.
- Jaylin Williams ($2,000): With Hartenstein spending more time on the bench, it opens the door for Williams to potentially play a bit more in this series. He saw 10.4 minutes in Game 1, and while he didn’t do much with his playing time, he’s historically been an excellent per-minute producer. He has the best projected Plus/Minus in this price range, making him a viable option in stars-and-scrubs builds.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,200): Barnes was a solid veteran presence for the Spurs during the regular season, but he has taken a backseat to the youngsters during the playoffs. He’s played single-digit minutes in five straight games, including less than six minutes in Game 1 of this series.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins would be a solid role player for most teams in this league, but he’s basically SOL with the Thunder. However, he is a career 38% 3-point shooter, so it’s possible that they turn to him if none of their other wings are making shots.
Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Imagn
