On Monday night, the NBA Finals roll on with a critical Game 5 in Oklahoma City, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET. In the back-and-forth series, the teams have alternated wins while playing to a 2-2 tie coming into this matchup. Whichever team gets the victory will move just one win away from an NBA Championship with a chance to close out the Finals on Thursday. If the two teams continue to switch off winners, Game 7 will be next Sunday back at the Paycom Center. Let’s take a closer look at this Game 5 matchup from a DFS fantasy basketball Showdown perspective to help you build your lineup for Monday’s contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The two superstar point guards have come to play in this series, so it’s no surprise that the FantasyLabs projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton at the top of the projections for Game 5. While both have extremely high ceilings, Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection, along with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
All season long, it’s been great to have another full set of projections available through our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections, SGA has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board in addition to the top median, ceiling, and floor projections. He’s a very expensive Captain to build around, but he has been so good in the playoffs that he has to be considered in that spot or at least slid into a utility spot.
In the Finals, SGA has averaged over 50 DraftKings points per game. He had over 55 DraftKings points in each of the two games at home, posting 38 points and 55.25 DraftKings points in a Game 1 loss and following that up with an even more impressive 34 points and 61.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. The Thunder dominated almost all of the first two games of the series in OKC, and with the series back at home for Game 5, SGA is in the perfect spot to step up and establish these as his NBA Finals.
Whether you love or hate his playing style, his production is undeniable, and with such high usage and a high ceiling, he is the top fantasy option to consider for Game 5.
If the Pacers can continue to avoid losing back-to-back games, they’ll be lined up for a win on Monday night. Haliburton has been the focus of their offense and has also shown a high ceiling, even though his production hasn’t been as high as SGA’s. He had a ceiling game in Game 3 with 22 points, 11 assists, and 57.25 DraftKings points, but he has been held under 40 DraftKings points in each of the other games in the series.
Haliburton is a virtuoso in this offense, creating great shots for his teammates with regularity throughout all the team’s sets. He hasn’t been quite as active scoring on a regular basis, but when he needs to, he has shown the ability to get to another gear. In both sets of projections, he has the second-highest median, floor, and ceiling projections behind only SGA.
Haliburton’s teammate, Pascal Siakam, has the third-highest salary on the slate and the third-highest projections in the ShotQuality projections. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven contests and has at least 19 points and 39 DraftKings points in three of the four games in this series.
Siakam has actually out-produced Haliburton in two of the four games in this series and is averaging an impressive 35.5 DraftKings points per game in the postseason. That ranks second on the team behind Haliburton, and he has the highest usage of the starters throughout this impressive postseason run by Indiana.
The highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate comes from Thunder forward Jalen Williams. Williams is under $10,000 in a utility spot, and he has been very consistent and productive throughout the playoffs and in this series. He is averaging 39.6 DraftKings points per game in the playoffs and has the second-highest usage on the team, behind only SGA.
Williams has 33+ DraftKings points in each of the four games in this series, with 38.5 and 38.25 DraftKings points in the last two games. While SGA is clearly the leader of the Thunder’s offense, Williams is a key contributor who consistently steps up with critical baskets. It’s much easier to build your roster with Williams at Captain than SGA, and you can include the top two options in the Thunder’s offense if you think they are set to get the win at home.
Siakam and Williams are both solid plays at their almost identical salaries. Siakam has been playing better in the last two games, but since this game is back in OKC, I actually lean slightly towards Williams, especially if salary is tight and you can use the savings in other spots.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
In both sets of projections, Aaron Nesmith stands out as the best mid-range play of the night. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections, and he comes at a great discount at just over $5,000.
In the NBA Finals, Nesmith has averaged 22.2 DraftKings points per game, but he has been especially good in three of the four games. He started the Finals with a double-double and 29 DraftKings points in Game 1, and in Game 4, he had eight points and nine rebounds before fouling out with 24.75 DraftKings points.
Nesmith has played big minutes for the Pacers throughout their postseason run, producing 28.03 DraftKings points in 29.4 minutes per game in the postseason. He has the potential to go off in multiple categories and is a great investment at this salary in a utility spot. You can also slide him in as Captain if you think he’ll deliver a game like Game 1. Playing him as Captain allows you to stuff stars in your utility spots.
Another great mid-range option from the Pacers has been Andrew Nembhard, who has been huge for Indiana in the playoffs. The third-year guard had a strong regular season but has been even better in the playoffs, producing 27.4 DraftKings points per game in the playoffs in 32.9 minutes per game. He has scored double-digit points in three of the four games in the series, with exactly 28 DraftKings points in each of the two games in Oklahoma City. His contributions on both ends of the floor make him a solid play since he logs heavy minutes and can chip in production in multiple categories.
Since the teams have both been playing generally smaller lineups, Myles Turner hasn’t been as involved or productive. He has also been battling an illness in the last few games and went a combined 6-for-21 (29%) from the field in the last two games. Turner has the potential to go off if he’s feeling better, but he’s a high-risk play based on what we have seen lately.
Two key contributors off of Indiana’s bench in this series have been Obi Toppin and T.J. McConnell. Toppin was huge in Game 1 and Game 4, scoring 17 points in each game and finishing with 27.25 and 32.25 DraftKings points, respectively. He doesn’t get as many minutes as Nembhard and Nesmith, but he has made enough impact to be a strong option, even though his salary has climbed to $6,000 in a utility spot.
McConnell’s salary hasn’t spiked like Toppin’s, and he remains an elite value from the mid-range. He has played under 20 minutes in each game in the Finals, but he delivered 28.25 DraftKings points in Game 2 and 27.75 DraftKings points in Game 3. In almost any game script, McConnell gets a chance to make an impact, and he always brings multi-category potential.
Coming off the bench at only $4,000, Bennedict Mathurin has been a boom-or-bust producer in this series. He went off for 27 points and 36 DraftKings points in Game 3, but he has been held under 20 DraftKings points in the other three games in the series. Especially since the Pacers are on the road, he isn’t a play that I love in Game 5, but he brings the potential to go off for instant offense in any contest.
On the other side of the matchup in the middle range, the Thunder’s rotation includes a few good value plays as well. Since Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams get most of the work on offense, there is limited usage available for the rest of the rotation.
In Indiana, Chet Holmgren seemed to find his rhythm after a slow start to the series. In Game 3, he had a 20-point double-double that earned him 38.5 DraftKings points, and in Game 4, he followed that up with 14 points, 15 boards, and 39.25 DraftKings points. He’s a high-priced utility play, but if you can’t quite get to the star options, he has been good enough to be a solid alternative.
The highest Projected Plus/Minus from the Thunder in the midrange in the ShotQuality projections comes from Cason Wallace, who started the first three games of the series before coming off the bench in Game 4. He had at least 14 DraftKings points in the first three games of the series but only 7.0 DraftKings points off the bench. He’s a bargain play that gets enough work to be a solid cheap play.
Wallace was replaced in the starting five by Isaiah Hartenstein, who has had a quiet series and still only played 21 minutes even as a starter. Luguentz Dort has played plenty of minutes, logging 33+ minutes in three games of this series. He had a massive 36 DraftKings points in Game 1 but has cooled off since then, with under 20 DraftKings points in each game since then. He has the potential to pop for a big game, and as an option under $5,000, he has good value potential since he does have such a large workload.
Alex Caruso has shone all series off the bench for the Thunder, scoring 20 points in two games and posting over 24 DraftKings points in each contest. He had a series-high 35.25 DraftKings points in Game 4 and he will remain a key contributor for the Thunder from their second unit. He’s not quite as cheap as he was at the start of the series, but he still has solid value. Both sets of projections have him low in Projected Plus/Minus with his elevated salary, but his projections are fourth-highest on the team behind only SGA, Williams, and Holmgren.
You can build an interesting roster construction with Caruso as Captain and stars in utility spots. He’s risky at this salary, but he has been one of the true stars for the Thunder in their playoff run and could go down as the X factor that brings the title to OKC if he continues his production for a few more games.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Aaron Wiggins ($2,200): Wiggins had 28.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 but was a non-factor in the two games in Indiana, scoring just one point in 18 minutes. He has potential if the score gets lopsided but is high-risk due to limited minutes.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,400): Joe has played a handful of minutes each game off the bench but hasn’t made much of an impact. He’s better than the other punt plays since he does get time and can be a streaky player, but he hasn’t gotten much run in the Finals.
- Ben Sheppard ($1,200): Sheppard has scored at least three points in each of the four games in the NBA Finals and posted a series-high 10.5 DraftKings points in Game 3. He played around 15 minutes off the bench in each of the last three games, which is enough to make him a punt play to consider.
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