The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Atlanta Hawks – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Tyrese Haliburton is coming off his worst game of the season and possibly career as he shot 4-for-14 from the field and failed to reach 20 DraftKings points. It was also the second time in 11 games this season that Haliburton failed to record double-digit assists. Expect a bounce back from Haliburton, who leads the league in assists while also averaging a career-high in points, field goal, and 3-point percentages. He should have no trouble capturing another double-double in this spot.
The Pacers and Hawks both rank in the top three in Pace, making this game environment by far the best on the slate. The total has risen to a slate-high 251.5 points as the Pacers are four-point road underdogs. Getting a ton of exposure to this game is a necessity in cash games and tournaments. Haliburton may be over $10,000, but he is a fantastic pay-up option.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell vs. Utah Jazz – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Serving as the Lakers’ starting point guard, D’Angelo Russell has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. Over that time, Russell has three 20-point games and one double-double, as he has averaged 17.4 points and six assists per game. He currently ranks third on the team in scoring and second in assists. Russell looks incredible on FanDuel as his $6,600 price tag is resulting in an 83% Bargain Rating and over 30% projected ownership, the fifth-highest on the slate.
The Lakers are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Jazz, implied for 122.25 points. This game has the second-highest total at 237 points, as the Jazz rank 27th in Defensive Rating this season. The Jazz have allowed 122 points per game and rank eighth in assists allowed. Russell is a great way to save salary while still getting exposure to the Lakers offense.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Devin Booker has taken the point guard role for the Suns and ran with it. The sample size is small, with only five games, but Booker is averaging a career-high 9.8 assists and 14.8 potential assists per game. Not only is he distributing the ball with ease, but Booker is also averaging a career-high 28.8 points per game while shooting 51% from the field and 43.8% from behind the arc. This is a perfect matchup for Booker to continue flexing his versatility against a Trail Blazers backcourt.
The Suns are a massive 13-point favorite against the Trail Blazers, who have lost seven consecutive games. With the anticipated blowout, Booker is projected for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, with Bradley Beal still out, Booker will have a higher usage rate and production while being a strong contrarian pay-up option.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon at Phoenix Suns – $7,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Malcolm Brogdon was having an incredible start to his first year with the Trail Blazers until he suffered a hamstring injury, putting him out for the next five games. Brogdon was recently upgraded to questionable, but make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock to make sure he suits up. In his seven full games played, Brogdon is averaging 21.9 points per game and has recorded double-digit assists in back-to-back games, while also having a positive Plus/Minus in each game.
He leads the Trail Blazers in usage rate with 28.1%, averaging 37.1 DraftKings points per game. With Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons both off the floor this season, Brogdon has a +4.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus. If Brogdon is ruled out once again, continue to get exposure to Shaedon Sharpe, who has been great in his second year in the league.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Utah Jazz – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
LeBron James has had a questionable tag for the last several games but has continued to play through his hamstring injury. Not only is James playing, but he has dominated by averaging 33.3 points and 64.6 DraftKings points per game while shooting 64.3% from the field in his last three games. The Lakers are on a roll right now, winning five of their last six games, so it would be shocking if James did not suit up for this home game. However, make sure to keep an eye on his status, too.
James leads the Lakers in points and assists per game and has a 30.1% usage rate. Despite being the highest-priced small forward, James also has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at this position proving how strong of a play he is. It is hard to get away from James with how he has been playing. If he is ruled out, Anthony Davis will be a must in all formats.
Top Value: Bruce Brown at Atlanta Hawks – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
After his best year of his career last season with the Nuggets, Bruce Brown has picked up right where he left off in his first season with the Pacers. Brown is averaging double-digit points for the second-straight season while playing a career-high 30.8 minutes per game. In this electric game environment, Brown is projected to play 33 minutes and be an elite value on FanDuel. Priced at $5,300, Brown has an 86% Bargain Rating and is projected for the second-highest ownership at 38%.
There are more than enough points to go around in this matchup, as the Pacers lead the league in scoring with 125.7 points per game. With such a high team total, the Pacers will get plenty of opportunities to score in transition which suits Brown’s game perfectly. He is second on the team in transition points and will have plenty of opportunity to stuff the stat sheet.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Suns have been the Devin Booker and Kevin Durant show, with Bradley Beal out for the foreseeable future. Durant is second in the league in scoring with 31.4 points per game while shooting a blistering 52.8% from the field and 49.2% from distance. At 35-years-old Durant remains arguably the best pure scorer at all three levels. In back-to-back games against the Jazz, Durant displayed his upside with over 65 DraftKings points in each game, shooting a ridiculous 59% from the field.
Given his positional eligibility, Durant is projected for much more ownership than his teammate Devin Booker. He has a great rebounding matchup as the Trail Blazers rank 24th in Rebounding Percentage this season. With a great chance to capture a double-double or even a triple-double, Durant is in a fantastic spot to put up a slate-winning performance tonight.
Top Value: Evan Mobley at Philadelphia 76ers – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Evan Mobley has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel in this matchup against the 76ers. He has a double-double in four straight games, averaging 17.8 points and 11 rebounds per game. His consistency makes him a staple in cash games, especially with his 40% projected ownership on FanDuel and 30% on DraftKings. Mobley has 11 Pro Trends on both sites, as the Cavaliers will be playing without Donovan Mitchell, while Caris LeVert is listed as questionable tonight.
Without Mitchell, Mobley has a team-high +8.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus and that increases if LeVert is also ruled out. Mobley has been stout defensively as he leads the team with 1.8 blocks per game. The 76ers have allowed 6.8 blocks per game this season, which is the third-highest in the league. With a double-double and defensive upside, Mobley is a cash game lock.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Looking for his second-straight MVP Award, Joel Embiid is leading the league in scoring and usage rate through his first 13 games this season. Despite a difficult matchup against a monstrous Cavaliers frontcourt, Embiid has the highest projected ceiling on the slate. Even against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, Embiid is averaging 29.7 points and 12 rebounds per game in his last three seasons. Embiid has flirted with a triple-double recently, as he has a career-high 6.2 assists per game.
With the highest upside on the slate, it is shocking to see Embiid is only projected for around 5% ownership on both sites. Paying up for Embiid will be a differentiator in lineups, as most will look to go with a balanced build. Averaging a slate-high 59.9 DraftKings points per game, he has two games this season, scoring 75+ points. Find a way to get exposure to Embiid.
Top Value: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Jusuf Nurkic is another way to get exposure to the Suns offense without paying a premium price tag. Priced in the mid-range on both sites, Nurkic is coming off his best game of the season, where he had an 18-point, 12-rebound double-double with 42.5 DraftKings points. Nurkic shot 7-for-11 in the last game with two blocks and one steal. A repeat performance is on the table against Deandre Ayton and the Trail Blazers frontcourt. Nurkic has double-double upside at a cheap price tag tonight.
Nurkic also has shown the ability to stretch the floor this season as he is attempting a career-high 2.4 3-pointers per game. There is a plethora of ways in which Nurkic can return value in this matchup. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus for centers on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. Getting exposure to the Suns offense through Nurkic is enticing.
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