The First Round of the NBA Playoffs features three deciding Games 7, with two on Sunday and one on Saturday night. Saturday night’s matchup is the No. 2 Boston Celtics versus the No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers, with the Knicks waiting to take on the winner next week. Boston won Game 1 in this series, but Philadelphia took home-court advantage with a win in Game 2. The Celtics won both games on the road to take a 3-1 series lead before the Sixers avoided elimination with back-to-back wins of their own to force Game 7 back in Boston. Let’s take a closer look at this standalone matchup from a DFS fantasy basketball Showdown perspective to help you build your lineup for Saturday’s contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The two biggest fantasy studs in this star-packed contest are coming back from injuries. Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles tendon less than a calendar year ago and worked his way back in time to play in the postseason, while Joel Embiid battled injuries all season, most recently coming back from an appendectomy. Tatum isn’t on the injury report, while Embiid is listed as probable.
Tatum has been outstanding in the series, and even though he has the highest salary, he needs to be at least a consideration for the Captain spot on your roster. He had at least 53 DraftKings points in four of the six games in the series, but he is coming off a rough Game 6 in which he only had 17 points and a series-low 36.2 DraftKings points.
In his career, Tatum has been a huge playoff performer and will need to step up and carry his team to the next round. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in this contest and also offers the highest Pts/Sal projection.
On the other side, Embiid has the highest production rate of any player in the series over the last month and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three games in this series. He returned to action with 52 DraftKings points in Game 4, turned in 50.5 DraftKings points in Game 5, and then had 47 DraftKings points in Game 6. He had a series-high 33 points in Game 5 and double-doubles in both of the other two games.
You can include both of the these stars in your roster build with one in the Captain spot, but you’ll have to be very careful with the rest of your salary spending. Putting both in a UTIL spot gives a lot more room, but finding the right Captain from the rest of the options is critical.
Those two fantasy beasts have plenty of other help in their rotation. The secondary scorers who helped cover in their absence were Jaylen Brown for the Celtics and Tyrese Maxey for the Sixers. Both have proven they can be the player to build around for fantasy when they are the focus of the offense.
Brown averaged 47.4 DraftKings points per game during the regular season and should be fresh after playing only 28 minutes in Game 6. He had over 34 DraftKings points in each of the first five games of the series, with a massive 55.8 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has the potential for that kind of performance in Game 7.
Maxey averaged 49.1 DraftKings points per game in the regular season, and he has three games in this series with at least 53 DraftKings points. He had 53.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 and exactly 53 DraftKings points in Game 3 and Game 5. In Game 6, he played 40 minutes and had 30 points to help push the series to Game 7.
He has played many more minutes than the other studs, so fatigue could be a factor in Game 7, but he always brings a very high ceiling with the potential to go off and carry his team to a win. He has taken a little bit of a reduced role with Embiid back, but he still must be considered as a strong option to build around. Maxey is a reliable workhorse producer with a high ceiling even though he’s a little cheaper than Tatum, Brown, and Embiid.
If one of the studs is your Captain, you can really only fit in one other. In the ShotQuality projections, Brown has slightly higher projections, coming in much closer to Embiid than in the FantasyLabs projections. Stacking the Celtics’ two stars could make sense if they carry most of the scoring load for their team. Maxey’s lower salary makes him an easier option to build around, but Embiid’s workload makes him a key factor to consider as well.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
In both sets of projections, Neemias Queta stands out as the best non-stud to include in your lineup builds. In fact, putting him as your Captain makes it possible to build a balanced roster with multiple studs in the UTIL spots.
Queta has 21+ DraftKings points and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last three games in the series even though he hasn’t played huge minutes or let up the scoreboard. His work on the glass and the defensive end makes him a solid value with both a high floor and a high ceiling. He had his best game of the series in Game 5 at home, posting 27 DraftKings points on eight points and 14 rebounds in 26 minutes.
With his lower salary, he’s a key fantasy option to consider, either to Captain a balanced build or to help even out your spending after putting a stud in your Captain spot.
The other potential game-altering option to consider from the Celtics mid-range plays is Payton Pritchard, who has proven he can come up big off the bench. He had 49.5 DraftKings points in Game 4 in Philadelphia, scoring 32 points in 35 minutes. He’s a volatile play, but the upside is definitely there from his salary under $8,000 in a UTIL spot.
Even though he is coming off the bench, Pritchard’s salary is higher than that of starting guard Derrick White, as White has struggled so mightily in this series. White has finished under his salary-based expectations in each of the six games in the series, although he did match his series high with 11 points in Game 6 and made three three-pointers for the first time since the regular season.
White has a proven playoff track record of coming up big when his team needs him most, but in this series, he hasn’t delivered on his fantasy potential to this point.
Nikola Vucevic and Sam Hauser have been key parts of the Celtics’ rotation this series as well, although neither has proven they can step up with a huge game. Vucevic had 30 DraftKings points in Game 3 in his best performance of the series, but he has played fewer minutes after Embiid’s return. Hauser has the potential to light it up from long range, but he hasn’t had double-digit points since Game 1.
Of the Celtics’ mid-range plays, Queta has the best Plus/Minus projections in both sets of projections, with Vucevic and White right behind him. Pritchard has a very high ceiling but is boom-or-bust at his salary of just under $8,000. He makes sense for GPP builds because of his upside, but his volatility makes him tricky to use in cash builds.
For the 76ers, Paul George and VJ Edgecombe have been key options behind Embiid and Maxey. George has the better Projected Plus/Minus in Game 7 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games, including a series-high 42.75 DraftKings points in Game 5 in Boston. He has played heavy minutes but has been very reliable to this point in the series and is the best non-stud play on both sides of this matchup.
Edgecombe is a little more affordable and has an extremely high ceiling. He had 53 DraftKings points in Game 2 as the secondary option behind Maxey while Embiid was out. He had only 14 and 26.25 DraftKings points in the first two games that Embiid played, but bounced back with 14 points, eight rebounds, and 33 DraftKings points in Game 6, showing he can thrive even with Embiid healthy. Like Pritchard, he has the potential to make a difference in Game 7, but he also has more volatility than the other options near his price point.
Besides those four players, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes are the other players in the regular rotation. Oubre had a big Game 6 with 33.75 DraftKings points, and he also had 30.5 DraftKings points in Game 3, but he only had 10.5 and 13 DraftKings points in Game 4 and Game 5. His contributions are important, and he gets plenty of minutes, but he doesn’t have enough usage to be an elite play, especially with Embiid back.
Grimes had 18 points in Game 5 but only two points and 8.75 DraftKings points in Game 6. He is a boom-or-bust play that gets enough minutes to be a factor, but he is too streaky to be a reliable anchor in your Captain spot, especially coming off his 1-for-6 performance in Game 6.
For roster construction, you can build around Queta or Oubre as your Captain and have plenty left to spend in UTIL spots. Pritchard and Edgecombe are both options with high volatility but also high ceilings. White is the real wild card; we’ve seen him go off in earlier playoff series but struggle so far this postseason.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Justin Edwards ($1,200): Edwards has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all the options under $4,000. He had 15 and 14 DraftKings points in Game 1 and Game 2. He didn’t play in Game 5, but he returned in Game 6 with five rebounds and two points for 7.2 DraftKings points in 10 minutes. If he gets court time, he’s a solid punt play since he usually finds ways to get involved.
- Baylor Scheierman ($2,200): Scheierman was very solid down the stretch for the Celtics while they got players ready for the playoffs, and he has at least 13 DraftKings points in three of the last four games in this series in his limited minutes off the bench. He has made at least one three-pointer in every game this series, and he had 14.25 DraftKings points in 15 minutes in Game 6.
- Andre Drummond ($2,800): Drummond has chipped in over 10 DraftKings points in all but one game this series. His minutes have dropped sharply with Embiid’s return, but he’s still a viable punt play in his role off the bench.
- Jordan Walsh ($3,400): Walsh has a higher ceiling than the other punt picks listed here but is a little more expensive as well. He had 15.75 DraftKings points in Game 6, playing a series-high 19 minutes while the Celtics got their starters a break toward the end of the game to have them fresh for Game 7. Scheierman and Drummond are probably slightly better options, especially if you can use the saved salary to upgrade elsewhere.
- Luke Garza ($1,800): Garza had a series-high nine points off the bench in Game 6, totaling 13.5 DraftKings points. He is getting a few minutes behind Vucevic and Queta, but his production is typically minimal.
