Happy Thanksgiving Eve! The NBA will take the night off on Thursday, so Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Rockets were expected to be one of the best teams in the league this season, but that was due primarily to their elite defense. However, it’s their offense that has carried them at times this year. They’re first in the league in offensive efficiency, so they’ve been fantastic on both sides of the ball.
The Rockets are currently playing without Kevin Durant, which means their offense is going to look a bit different than usual on Wednesday. Amen Thompson figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s coming off 49.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +4.99% with Durant off the floor. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and no one at the position is projected for more than Thompson’s 38 minutes.
Thompson ultimately has the fourth-highest ceiling projection among Wednesday’s point guards, despite checking in with the ninth-highest price tag. He also ranks fifth in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s a nice combination of value and upside.
Value
T.J. McConnell is officially back for the Pacers, and he’s starting to do T.J. McConnell stuff. He’s always been an elite per-minute producer, and this year has been no exception: he’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute through his first seven outings.
McConnell was heavily limited in his first few games back, but he got up to 22.4 minutes in his last outing. That’s not a ton of playing time, but it’s more than enough for McConnell to do damage. He’s priced at just $3,600, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating, and McConnell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.48 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
He ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on Wednesday, and he’s No. 2 on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Immanuel Quickley continues to stand out as underpriced for the red-hot Raptors. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.88 over his past 10 outings, though he has failed to return value in two straight. He’s in a fantastic bounce-back spot Wednesday vs. the Pacers. Indiana ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency to start the year, and the Raptors have the third-highest implied team total on the slate.
Collin Gillespie has been excellent when on the floor for the Suns this season, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time has trended up of late, and he’s responded with at least 29.25 DraftKings points in five straight games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them, and he’s projected for another 30 minutes Wednesday in a favorable matchup vs. the Kings.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
There was a lot of talk about the Raptors this offseason. They had plenty of talent, but it remained to be seen if the whole could be greater than the sum of all its parts. Specifically, how could they integrate Brandon Ingram and his big price tag alongside the rest of their roster?
Turns out, Ingram has had no issues fitting in. He’s still a certified bucket, and he’s coming off his best performance of the season in his last outing. He torched the Cavaliers for 37 points, and he posted a massive 41.3% usage rate.
R.J. Barrett was out of the lineup for that contest, and he’ll be sidelined once again on Wednesday. Ingram has unsurprisingly seen a +4.51% usage bump with Barrett off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. Ingram has scored at least 47.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, and with no Barrett vs. the Pacers, he has comparable upside on Wednesday.
Value
Gary Payton Jr. is another player priced at a massive discount on DraftKings. His $3,400 price tag comes with a 92% Bargain Rating, and Payton is coming off 31.0 DraftKings points across 20.8 minutes in his last outing. He’s not a particularly high-usage player, but he’s capable of doing a little bit of everything. The result is an average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Payton is projected for 21 minutes on Wednesday’s slate for the shorthanded Warriors. They’re going to be without Al Horford, Jonathan Kuminga, and De’Anthony Melton, and Payton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.25 with a comparable salary and minute projection dating back to last season.
Fast Break
Reed Sheppard should also see a boost in responsibilities for the Rockets on Wednesday. His development is going to be vital for the Rockets with Fred VanVleet out for the year, and Sheppard has shown significant improvement of late. He’s racked up at least 30.75 DraftKings points in four of his past six games, and he’s seen a team-high +4.86% usage bump with Durant off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he’s projected for 30 minutes on Wednesday’s slate.
You can add Josh Okogie to the value mix for the Rockets. He’s projected for 30 minutes at just $3,900, and that’s a lot of playing time for someone in that price range. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.52. Okogie isn’t the best on a per-minute basis (0.75 DraftKings points per minute), but he’s a good bet to return value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
As usual, small forward is one of the weakest positions on Wednesday’s slate. No one is priced above $7,000, and Dillon Brooks leads the position in ceiling projection. None of the highest-priced options have an optimal lineup rate above 10.65% in Sim Labs, so it’s a great spot to save some salary.
Jordan Goodwin stands out as a nice combination of floor and ceiling. He’s become an important part of the Suns’ rotation, and he’s put together some excellent performances of late. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.57 over his past 10 outings, and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute for the year.
Goodwin is coming off a poor showing in his last contest, but that was against a tough Rockets’ defense. Tonight’s matchup should be significantly friendlier, so it’s an excellent bounce-back spot. He ultimately leads the position in optimal lineup rate.
Value
Cedric Coward is coming off back-to-back dreadful performances, finishing with 13.75 DraftKings points vs. the Nuggets and 13.0 vs. the Mavericks. However, he’s still been one of the most impressive rookies this season. He’s averaged 13.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game with solid efficiency numbers, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute.
The Grizzlies are currently playing without Ja Morant, and Coward should see a slight boost in responsibility without him. That hasn’t materialized in his past two games, but he’s still averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Morant off the floor this season. The Pelicans also represent an excellent matchup, with New Orleans ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
The Pelicans got Zion Williamson back recently, but it hasn’t slowed down Saddiq Bey. He’s been one of their most consistent options all season, and he’s coming off back-to-back games with at least 42.75 DraftKings points. Bey has averaged just under a fantasy point per minute for the year, and he’s expected to see 31 minutes Wednesday vs. the Grizzlies. He’s also projected for less than 5% ownership at the time of writing, making him a very interesting contrarian option for tournaments.
The Blazers are another interesting team target on this slate. They have the fourth-highest implied team total, and they’re going to be without Jrue Holiday once again. Shaedon Sharpe is also questionable, so the team could be pretty shorthanded. Jerami Grant has been one of the offensive focal points with both players off the floor this season, seeing a team-high +4.79% usage bump. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he’d be an excellent target if Sharpe is ultimately ruled out.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Conversely, the other forward spot stands out as a position where you should look to spend some money. Among the six players with the top optimal lineup rates at the position, four are priced at $8,700 or higher.
That starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s officially listed as questionable, but if he’s able to suit up, he has the top ceiling on the entire slate. He’s putting together another dominant season, averaging 1.78 DraftKings points per minute, and he draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Heat. Miami is playing completely differently this season than they did last year, ranking first in the league in pace. Ultimately, they’re averaging more than nine additional possessions per game.
Giannis is expensive at $11,500, and it’s possible that he’s limited if he does return to the lineup. However, there’s more than enough value available to justify his inclusion at that figure.
Value
The Spurs are still playing without Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, while Dylan Harper has been upgraded to questionable. Regardless of Harper’s status, Keldon Johnson should see a nice uptick in production.
Johnson is coming off a slightly disappointing showing in his last outing, but he was excellent in his three previous games. He scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in each, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute for the year. With Wembanyama and Castle off that floor, that figure spikes to 1.18. He’s currently projected for 27 minutes vs. the Blazers, which should be enough for him to pay off his $5,800 price tag.
Fast Break
Deni Avdija is another potential stud target at the position. He’s blossomed into a fantasy superstar in Portland, and he has the potential to be even better than usual, given the team’s current injury situation. He’s seen a +3.33% usage bump with Holiday and Sharpe off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.43 DraftKings points per minute.
Royce O’Neale doesn’t have the same per-minute upside as Johnson, but he’s arguably the safer bet at power forward. He’s priced at $5,100 and projected for 33 minutes, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.38 with comparable marks as a member of the Suns.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Alperen Sengun is also available at power forward on this slate, but he stands out more at the center position. The gap between him and the rest of the centers is pretty massive. He has the top ceiling projection by nearly 13 points, and he has the top optimal lineup rate by almost 10%.
Sengun should be the Rockets’ clear offensive focal point with Durant out of the picture. He hasn’t thrived in that scenario so far this season – he’s actually averaged fewer fantasy points per minute than he has in general – but there’s no reason to expect that trend to continue. Sengun is one of the most gifted big men in basketball, and the Rockets should lean on that with Durant sidelined.
The matchup vs. the Warriors is also excellent. They’re not a particularly big team, especially with Horford out of the lineup. It gives Sengun an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.27, and Sengun had success against the Warriors in the playoffs last season.
Value
Durant isn’t the only absence the Rockets are facing on Wednesday. Steven Adams and Tari Eason have also been ruled out, which opens up a decent chunk of playing time in the frontcourt.
Clint Capela should pick up a chunk of those minutes. He’s priced at the absolute minimum at $3,000, and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s historically been an excellent per-minute producer, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to pay off this price tag.
Fast Break
Donovan Clingan stands out as one of the better pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a 92% Bargain Rating. Clingan has been capped at around 27 minutes on most nights, but he makes up for it with a phenomenal average of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also seen a +3.36% usage bump with Holiday and Sharpe off the floor, and he’s averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
Derik Queen has been putting up big numbers for the Pelicans of late, but he was surprisingly limited to just 17 minutes in his last outing. Hopefully, that’s just a one-game outlier. He’s expected to get back to around 30 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Before his last contest, Queen had played at least 30.4 minutes and scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in three straight games.
Pictured: Amen Thompson
Photo Credit: Imagn
