Wednesday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Warriors are going to be fighting an uphill battle for the rest of the season. They were already struggling to compete in the loaded Western Conference, and now they’re going to have to do it without Jimmy Butler. The team currently sits in eight place in the standings, so another trip to the Play-In Tournament feels like the most likely outcome.
Still, the Warriors do at least have Steph Curry. The sharpshooter is putting together another fantastic season, averaging 27.3 points per game while shooting 39.0% from 3-point range. For fantasy purposes, he’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Without Butler and Jonathan Kuminga on Wednesday, Curry is going to have to do even more than usual. He’s seen a +2.19% usage bump with both players off the floor this season.
Curry also draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Utah Jazz. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and Curry ranks first at the position with a +2.97 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Warriors are also implied for 124.75 points, which is the top mark of the day by more than five points.
Value
The Mavericks have cycled through a bunch of different options at point guard this season with Kyrie Irving on the shelf. Brandon Williams appears to be the preferred option at the moment, and he’s turned in some fantastic performances in recent games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s had at least 29.25 DraftKings points in four of them. The lone exception was a game where he was limited to just 10.6 minutes of playing time.
Williams is projected for 27.5 minutes on Wednesday’s slate, and he’s averaged an elite 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s a fantastic combination for someone priced at just $4,900. He leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus and carries the highest optimal lineup rate at the position in Sim Labs.
Fast Break
It’s been a disastrous season for the Pacers, but Andrew Nembhard is still playing good basketball. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.68 over his past 10 games, and he erupted for 54.25 DraftKings points in an upset win over the Thunder two games ago. Nembhard has increased his production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him solid upside in an elite matchup vs. the Bulls. They rank fifth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, making them one of the best possible opponents for fantasy purposes.
LaMelo Ball is down to $7,600 on DraftKings, which makes sense based on his recent workload. He’s projected for just 25 minutes on Wednesday’s slate, but Ball is capable of doing a lot of damage in limited playing time. He’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Luka Doncic among Wednesday’s point guards. His optimal lineup exceeds his projected ownership by a solid amount, making him an interesting contrarian pivot for tournaments.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Are the Cavaliers starting to turn things around? They’ve won six of their past seven games, with their only loss over that time frame coming against the Thunder. They’re up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings, and they’re only two games behind the Celtics for the No. 2 seed.
Donovan Mitchell has been a big part of their success. He’s already been their top offensive option this season, averaging 29.5 points per game, but he’s taken things to another level recently. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 42.9% in back-to-back outings, and he’s responded with 36 and 45 points in those contests. With Darius Garland and Evan Mobley both out of the lineup with injuries, Mitchell could continue to post an expanded usage rate in the short term.
His last two performances have come against a slow-paced Magic squad, and he still finished with 58.5 and 59.25 DraftKings points in those outings. His current matchup vs. the Lakers should be much friendlier. They’re 25th in defensive rating this season, and the Cavaliers have the second-highest implied team total of the day.
Value
Brandin Podziemski is another member of the Warriors who is going to have to do a bit more heavy lifting with Butler and Kuminga out of the lineup. He’s seen a +2.87% bump to his usage rate with both players off the floor this season, and he’s also increased his assist (+2.63%) and rebound (+0.98%) rates. As a result, he’s increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
Podziemski is projected for more than 30 minutes in an elite matchup, which is more than enough to put him on the radar at just $6,300.
Fast Break
Kon Kneuppel has exceeded even the loftiest expectations for his rookie season. He’s already playing with the poise of a 10-year veteran, and he’s an absolute marksman from deep. He’s shooting 42.2% on 7.8 3-point attempts per game, which is a ridiculous combination of volume and efficiency for a 20-year-old. Knueppel has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.62 over his past 10 games. He managed to score 34.0 DraftKings points in just 20.4 minutes in his last outing, and he should get back to 30+ minutes Wednesday vs. the Grizzlies. Knueppel ranks second at the position in optimal lineup rate, and it exceeds his projected ownership by roughly 10%.
The Grizzlies are still playing without Ja Morant, leaving Cedric Coward to pick up a few additional minutes and shots per game. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is tied for the fourth-best mark among Wednesday’s shooting guards. He’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he gets to that level, he’ll have a great chance to pay off his $5,800 salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jaylen Brown has been remarkable for the Celtics all season, proving that he can carry the scoring load while Jayson Tatum recovers from injury. He’s posted career-best numbers in virtually every category across the board, and he’s increased his scoring average and field goal percentage compared to last season. That means that not only is his volume way up, but so is his efficiency.
Unsurprisingly, Brown has been fantastic for fantasy purposes as well. He’s poured in more than 50 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and he’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
There’s no reason he can’t keep the production rolling vs. the Hawks. Atlanta has played at the second-fastest pace this season, making them a solid opponent for fantasy purposes. The Celtics are currently implied for 118.75 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Nothing about what Dean Wade brings to the table is particularly sexy. However, he’s very affordable at just $4,200, and he’s playing plenty of minutes for the shorthanded Cavs. He’s projected for another 28.5 minutes on Wednesday, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.54 (per the Trends tool). Wade has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.13 in that split, and while he doesn’t offer a ton of upside, he’s a good bet to return value vs. the Lakers.
Fast Break
Brandon Miller is arguably the most exciting player on the Hornets’ roster at the moment. While Ball and Knueppel are both excellent players, they both have their limitations. Miller’s ceiling has seemingly no cap. He’s played well recently, averaging 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he ripped off 49.5 DraftKings points in just 27.2 minutes in his last outing. All of the Hornets have a bit more appeal than usual in this matchup, with the Grizzlies playing at the 10th-fastest pace this season. Miller ranks second at the position in both projected Plus/Minus and optimal lineup rate.
Aaron Nesmith is another potential target for the Pacers in their solid matchup vs. the Bulls. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He ranks fourth at the position in projected Plus/Minus and optimal lineup rate, and the latter exceeds his projected ownership as well.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Power forward doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong position at the top on Wednesday. Most of the high-priced options have negative Plus/Minus projections, and no one priced above $6,000 has an optimal lineup rate above 10%.
However, Julius Randle looks like an interesting contrarian target. Randle has had a wide range of outcomes recently, but his ceiling remains one of the best at the position. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways, resulting in an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
There’s also a chance that the Timberwolves are without Anthony Edwards on Wednesday. He’s currently listed as questionable, and if he’s ruled out, Randle would see a big boost. He’s seen a +4.19% usage bump with Edwards off the court this season, which is the top mark on the squad. Randle has increased his production to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he’d become one of the strongest stud targets of the day.
Value
Jerace Walker has gotten the opportunity to play a bit more for the Pacers recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.86 across his past 10 outings, and he’s turned in at least 31.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s averaged a very healthy 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 30 minutes on Wednesday’s slate.
Walker’s price tag has come up significantly over the past few games, but he still stands out as underpriced at $5,200. He provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling in an excellent matchup.
Fast Break
Draymond Green is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of scoring fantasy points. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s going to have to help pick up the slack with Butler and Kuminga sidelined on Wednesday. He’s turned in three straight subpar performances, but he’s playing 23.4 minutes or fewer in each of them. He should pick up a few additional minutes if Wednesday’s contest is more competitive and he can avoid getting ejected.
Naz Reid is another potential big man target for the Timberwolves. He’s averaged an elite 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and while he’s still coming off the bench, he’s still playing 25+ minutes on most nights. He has a much higher ceiling than his $6,000 price tag suggests, going for more than 40 DraftKings points in three of his past seven games.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Jusuf Nurkic’s status for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Warriors is still TBD. The team will be on the second leg of a back-to-back, but Nurkic sat out Tuesday’s loss vs. the Clippers. That means there’s a chance that he’s able to suit up vs. the Warriors.
If Nurkic is available, he is undoubtedly worthy of some stud consideration. He’s been an absolute monster when on the floor recently, averaging a whopping 1.63 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the third-best mark on this slate, trailing only Doncic and Victor Wembanyama. While those two will set you back $12,200 and $10,200, respectively, Nurkic comes at the bargain price tag of $7,800.
Nurkic has averaged a ridiculous +15.04 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 55.0 DraftKings points in three straight. He’s producing like a $10k+ player at the moment, so let’s take the value while we can.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Al Horford stands out as one of the best pure values of the day. He’s not projected for a ton of minutes (23), but Horford has made up for it with excellent efficiency of late. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his $4,300 price tag.
Horford ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he owns the top optimal lineup rate on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Neemias Queta is doubtful for the Celtics on Wednesday, and Amari Williams would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if he’s unable to go. He saw nearly 26 minutes sans Queta in the team’s last game, and he responded with 24.25 DraftKings points. Williams is priced at just $3,700 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Hawks, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating.
Nikola Vucevic has somewhat quietly been playing some excellent basketball this season. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. He’s had 40+ DraftKings points in four of his past five, and he remains underpriced at $7,700 for an excellent matchup vs. the Pacers.
Pictured: Donovan Mitchell
Photo Credit: Imagn
