DraftKings’ main slate for Tuesday starts at 7:30 PM EST and features the first five games of the night. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Jamal Murray ($9,800)
Murray (ankle) has missed two in a row, but the guard is questionable tonight, and if he suits up, he will have huge upside and could get overlooked after missing some games. Murray has been outstanding with Nikola Jokic (knee) sidelined, scoring at least 56 DraftKings in each of his last three starts. With Jokic off the floor this season, Murray’s usage doesn’t move much, but his assist rate skyrockets 13.4 percentage points to a massive 44.2%, resulting in 1.24 DraftKings PPM for the guard, via the On/Off Tool. Murray has dished out 16 and 17 assists in his last two, and he is in a terrific spot vs. the Pelicans, who rank ninth in pace and 27th in defensive rating. Even with Jokic out, Denver carries the third-highest implied team total on the slate (117.5 points), which is a testament to how strong of a matchup this is.
Value
Bones Hyland ($3,100)
Anthony Edwards (knee) is out tonight vs. the Bucks, and Hyland is the No. 1 value on the slate in this situation. Hyland has started in each of the last three Edwards has missed, and while Hyland underwhelmed in the first of these three, he thrived in the latter two, posting 30.75 and 25.25 DraftKings points. Hyland logged at least 34 minutes in both of these games, but Mike Conley missed these contests and is healthy again now. With the veteran available, Hyland likely will find himself in the 25-30 minute range tonight, but this is still plenty of time for him to easily outperform his bare minimum salary. With Edwards off the court this season, Hyland is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 20% usage rate.
Fast Break
Donte DiVincenzo ($6,200) – While Hyland is the better value to attack in Edwards’ absence, DiVincenzo is also a great target that can be rostered with confidence. With Edwards inactive this season, DiVincenzo is generating 38.8 DraftKings PPG with a 20.9% usage rate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Devin Booker ($8,700)
While paying up at shooting guard isn’t the most optimal move for roster construction tonight, Booker does warrant consideration for GPPs facing the up-tempo Heat. Miami leads the NBA in pace this season, compared to the Suns, who rank 20th. This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (230.5 points), and the Heat are only favored by 1.5 points. Booker is leading Phoenix with a 31% usage rate and 1.3 DraftKings PPM, and when competing in spreads under five points this season, the guard is averaging 44.4 DraftKings PPG (11 games), via the Trends Tool.
Value
Ayo Dosunmu ($5,300)
Dosunmu is coming off a 45 DraftKings point outing vs. the Mavericks, and he should continue to put up strong numbers tonight with Josh Giddey (hamstring) and Coby White (calf) both out. Dosunmu is producing 30.8 DraftKings PPG with both Giddey and White inactive this season (four games), and with both those guards off the floor, Dosunmu’s usage and assist rates increase 2.8 and 5.4 percentage points, respectively, and he scores 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Dosunmu is facing a Rockets’ defense that ranks eighth in rating tonight, but our projections are slating him for near 30 minutes, and he should surpass five-times value with this workload.
Fast Break
Trey Murphy ($7,700) – If Saddiq Bey (questionable, hip) remains sidelined tonight, Murphy will be an elite GPP play. With Bey out, Murphy has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four, and with Bey off the court this season, Murphy is generating 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 22.7% usage rate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Peyton Watson ($7,500)
Watson has come alive with Jokic missing, averaging 41.3 DraftKings PPG in these past seven without the big man. During this stretch, Watson is handling a huge 28.4% usage rate and logging 37.1 minutes per game. Additionally, he is shooting 48.8% from the field and 46.2% on three-pointers. In a prime spot vs. the Pelicans tonight, Watson has a great chance to top 40 DraftKings points regardless of Murray’s status.
Value
Jaden McDaniels ($5,800)
This salary is too low for McDaniels with Edwards sidelined. McDaniels is scoring 34.8 DraftKings PPG with Edwards out, and McDaniels has eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in all but one of these seven games. On top of Edwards being out tonight, Rudy Gobert will be inactive due to a suspension, opening up more minutes at center for McDaniels. The veteran should approach 40 minutes with the Timberwolves, only 2.5-point underdogs vs. the Bucks, and McDaniels should score nothing less than 30 DraftKings points with the huge workload. With both Edwards and Gobert off the court this season, McDaniels is providing 1.0 DraftKings PPM.
Fast Break
Dillon Brooks ($6,100) – Facing the fast-paced Heat, Brooks is rated as a strong value in our projections. The veteran has topped 30 DraftKings points in four of his last eight, and during this span, Brooks is handling a 26.9% usage rate and logging 30.3 minutes per game, both of which rank second only to Booker for the Suns.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Julius Randle ($8,100)
Randle is another awesome value from the shorthanded Timberwolves tonight. Tonight will be the first game of the season they have played without both Edwards and Gobert, but in the seven Edwards has missed, Randle is leading Minnesota with 46.7 DraftKings PPG, and with both Edwards and Gobert off the floor this season, Randle is leading the Timberwolves with 1.5 DraftKings PPM. This is due to his usage and rebound rates increasing 3.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively. Randle warrants a salary over $9,000 in this situation, and he is a top-five on the slate in our projections.
Value
Aaron Gordon ($6,500)
After coming off the bench for a few games, Gordon was moved back into the Nuggets’ starting lineup this past Sunday vs. the Bucks, and in 31.4 minutes, the forward posted 37.5 DraftKings points. Murray did miss this game and could return tonight, but even if he did, Gordon should continue to see over 30 minutes and garner a strong usage rate with Jokic sidelined. With the three-time MVP off the floor this season, Gordon’s usage rises 3.6 percentage points to 28.2%, and he scores 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Gordon has been extremely efficient on both sides of the ball this season, and this $6,500 salary is just too low for him healthy again and Jokic still out.
Fast Break
Matas Buzelis ($6,300)
While Buzelis is in a tough spot vs. the Rockets, he is a viable option with both Giddey and White unavailable. These guards have missed four of the last six for the Bulls, and in those contests, Buzelis has been great, scoring 37.1 DraftKings points in 30.9 minutes per game with a strong 27.7% usage rate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Victor Wembanyama ($9,500)
With our projections forecasting Wembanyama for only around 6% ownership on DraftKings, the superstar is the best GPP play on the board. After coming off the bench for a few games after dealing with a knee injury, Wembanyama rejoined the Spurs’ starting lineup this past Sunday vs. the Timberwolves, and he posted 46.25 DraftKings points across 26.6 minutes. Wembanyama should see a similar workload tonight, and while he is facing a Thunder defense that leads the league in defensive rating this season, Oklahoma City has struggled on that side of the ball recently, ranking 22nd in defensive rating over their last five. With a 33.3% usage rate, Wembanyama is scoring a massive 1.74 DraftKings PPM this season, and he should top 50 DraftKings points if the Thunder’s defense continues to underperform.
Value
Naz Reid ($6,100)
Last but not least when it comes to targets from the Timberwolves is Reid. The big man has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in five of the seven games Edwards has missed this season, despite coming off the bench in all of these games. Now, with Gobert also missing, Reid should move into Minnesota’s first unit at center and see over 30 minutes, making him a near must-play at this price point. With both Edwards and Gobert off the court this season, Reid is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 20% usage rate and a 15.6% rebound rate. In our projections, Reid is rated a top-three value on the slate, and his ceiling is near 50 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Bobby Portis ($5,300) – Myles Tuner (illness) is questionable, and if he sits, Portis would likely start at center for the Bucks and be a strong value play. This season, Portis is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM, and he is averaging 32.9 DraftKings PPG for the five instances he has started.
Yves Missi ($3,300) – Missi is a viable punt play if in need of salary relief. The backup center for the Pelicans is on the heels of 21.25 DraftKings points showing vs. the Magic, and he has scored at least 18 DraftKings points in six of his past 10.
Pictured: Julius Randle
Photo Credit: Imagn
