Thursday features a small three-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player props.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Priced at $8,500 on FanDuel and $8,000 on DraftKings, Chris Paul is the most expensive point guard on this small slate. He is coming off a season-high 19 assists last game, and he paired that with 17 points for a total of 55.75 DraftKings points. Devin Booker remains on a minutes limit while backup guards Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet are out. Newly acquired Kevin Durant will also be out until after the All-Star Break, so Paul should continue to carry a more significant workload than usual.
The Suns are 1.5-point home favorites against the Clippers as they work their way up the Western Conference standings. The Clippers rank just outside the top 10 in Defensive Rating and play at a very slow Pace. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Paul, but he has proven that he can produce in every type of game environment. The point guard position doesn’t have that elite pay-up option tonight, but Paul has the double-double upside worth targeting.
Value
Paying down for Mike Conley in the mid-range is the best way to attack this slate. Conley has the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at all positions. Tonight will be Conley’s third game with the Timberwolves since he was acquired at the trade deadline. He has had back-to-back mediocre performances, but Conley’s price tag dropped to $5,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating.
In 43 games with the Jazz, Conley averaged a career-high 7.7 assists with 10.7 points per game. His chemistry with Rudy Gobert is one of the many reasons the Timberwolves made the move to bring the veteran point guard on board. Scoring may be an afterthought in Conley’s game, but like Paul, he can score just enough to achieve the double-double bonus.
Prioritize Conley on DraftKings, where his salary dropped -$500 since his last game.
Fast Break
It took overtime, but Jrue Holiday put up a season-high 40 points last game, shooting 13 of 21 from the field and 8 of 12 from behind the arc. The two-time All-Star is averaging 19.5 points per game, the second-most of his career. Typically, Holiday is a great cash-game option, but his recent play has propelled him into tournament territory. At this salary, Holiday looks like a strong play in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
First-time All-Star Anthony Edwards has been fantastic for the Timberwolves in his third year in the league. He is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists this season as he continues to play without Karl-Anthony Towns. Edwards has that superstar mindset that he can drop 30 points whenever he wants to. Over his last 13 games, Edwards is averaging 28.4 points with seven games eclipsing 30 points and one game with 44 points.
This matchup against the Wizards features the highest total on the slate at 234.5 points. The Timberwolves have a 118.75 implied point total as they are three-point home favorites. Adding a pass-first point guard like Mike Conley hasn’t slowed down Edwards in these last two games. Given the matchup and price tag, Edwards looks like the second-best pay-up behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. His upside is incredibly high on this small slate.
Value
Arguably the best salary saver on the slate is Bulls backup guard Alex Caruso. Priced near the minimum on DraftKings, Caruso has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus among all positions. The Bulls may be without DeMar DeRozan, who leads the team in points and assists this season. In five games without DeRozan, Caruso has seen an increase in his minutes, points, rebounds, assists, and field goal attempts, resulting in an average of 25.75 DraftKings points.
The Bulls are the biggest underdog on the slate as they host the Bucks as both teams are going in opposite directions. The Bucks have won 11 straight games, while the Bulls have lost five straight. They are playing on a back-to-back after losing to the Pacers by four points last night. Caruso continued to stuff the stat sheet while playing 30 minutes in the loss. He is another value option that should be prioritized on DraftKings with his 98% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal has finally started to produce fantasy points outside of just scoring. He recorded his first double-double of the season eight days ago with 10 assists against the Hornets. Beal has also scored over 30 points regularly as he remains a focal point in the Wizards’ offense. Beal has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games and will look to go shot-for-shot with Edwards.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The small forward position is lacking star power as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have both seen limited minutes before the All-Star Break. Luckily,, Zach LaVine is available at shooting guard and small forward on both sites, making this an easy transition. LaVine is coming off a monster performance on Wednesday, finishing with 35 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists, and a season-high 63.8 DraftKings points across 43 minutes in a non-overtime game.
LaVine will continue to see the most significant boost if DeMar DeRozan is unable to play. Using our On/Off Tool, LaVine has seen a team-high +3.4% usage bump with DeRozan off the floor this season. LaVine has played 40+ minutes in four of his last five games, and our NBA Model has him projected for a slate-high 37 minutes tonight. LaVine looks excellent on this slate and would look even better if DeRozan cannot go.
Value
Khris Middleton has yet to see his salary rise, as he is priced at just $6,000 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position for both sites despite continuing to play with a minute limit. Middleton has averaged 18.2 points and 32.2 DraftKings points over his past six contests while attempting double-digit field goals in each.
Our NBA Model has Middleton projected to play 26 minutes, and he’s expected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. Over the last six games, Middleton is averaging a ridiculous 1.46 DraftKings points per minute, which is by far the highest in his career. Middleton has been highly efficient, and if he receives a few extra minutes tonight, he could easily break the slate at these cheap salaries.
Fast Break
After missing four consecutive games, Kyle Kuzma returned last game and exceeded all expectations, scoring 33 points while shooting 11 of 20 from the field and 6 of 10 from behind the arc. The Timberwolves rank fifth in Pace (101.8) entering tonight’s games, which is a significant boost for the Wizards’ players. Kuzma had 23 points and nine rebounds in their first meeting and will look to stay hot in the Wizards’ last game before the All-Star Break.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only true pay-up option on this three-game slate. There is a $3,400 price gap between him and the next closest player on DraftKings and a $2,300 gap on FanDuel. With a gap that large, this slate will be decided by how you handle Gianniss. He is currently projected for around 45% ownership on FanDuel and 35% on DraftKings, which does seem a little low for a three-game slate with no other pay-up option in his pricing tier.
Giannis continues to lead the league in usage rate and rebounds while ranking third in points per game. He has attempted 23+ field goals in his last three games, averaging 36.3 points and 63.3 DraftKings points per game over that span. The Bulls rank 21st in Rebounding Percentage (49.4%) entering tonight’s games, making this a prime spot for Giannis to deliver another massive double-double.
Giannis is a lock for cash games and a strong play in tournaments across the industry.
Value
Timberwolves starting power forward Jaden McDaniels is most known for his defense but is averaging a career-high 11.4 points per game while shooting 51.5% from the field and 37.9% from behind the arc. In the three games McDaniels has played without point guard D’Angelo Russell, he has made two 3-pointers in each game while averaging 13 points per game. McDaniels can stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways on both ends of the court.
McDaniels is yet another value play that needs to be prioritized on DraftKings. He is $4,300 on DraftKings compared to $5,600 on FanDuel and has a 98% Bargain Rating. McDaniels has seen his minutes fluctuate recently, but he did play 31 last game producing over 30 DraftKings points. He is another salary saver that will allow lineups to get up to Giannis and is a cheap way to get exposure to the highest point total on the slate with a great game environment.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis is another Wizards player who has been on a tear recently. Over the last eight games, Porzingis is averaging 27.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 48 DraftKings points per game. He has also displayed block upside and will likely be a nightmare matchup for Rudy Gobert. He had 41 points in their last matchup shooting 12 of 18 from the field and 6 of 11 from behind the arc. Porzingis is affordable on both sites in this juicy matchup.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Leading the way with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings is Bulls center Nikola Vucevic. He has been on an absolute tear since the calendar switched to 2023. Vucevic has recorded a double-double in 20 of his last 23 games, despite not achieving this feat last night against the Pacers. Shooting 51.8% from the field, Vucevic is doing his best to keep the season afloat for the Bulls, who have lost five consecutive games.
The DeRozan news may be the most important for Vucevic. He has seen a +3.0% usage bump DeRozan off the floor this season. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard for his status, as that would greatly affect the production of Vucevic. The Bucks rank second in Rebounding Percentage and 13th in points per game allowed in the paint, so otherwise, this is a tough spot for Vucevic.
Value
Daniel Gafford got into major foul trouble last game, as he only was able to play 15 minutes. That ruined a streak of five straight games where Gafford had over 26 DraftKings points, and he averaged 11.2 points and 7.2 rebounds over that span. In his third season with the Wizards, Gafford is shooting a career-high 74.2% from the field. Since the departure of Rui Hachimura, Gafford has shown huge upside and remains very affordable.
The Timberwolves, despite having one of the league’s elite shot-blockers in Rudy Gobert, are allowing 50.6 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 19th in the league. They also rank 28th in Rebounding Percentage, making this a very intriguing matchup. He is only center-eligible on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but with such a small slate, getting exposure to Gafford at this relatively low ownership may be worth it.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has been an absolute stud recently. Over his last five games, Ayton is averaging a huge double-double with 22 points and 11 rebounds per game while shooting 74.7% from the field. The Clippers represent a tougher matchup because they play slow and have Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee patrolling the paint, but Ayton playing this well is impossible to ignore, especially with Devin Booker not playing his full allotment of minutes.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS: 5 Rules for Attacking the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
NBA DFS (Thursday, Nov. 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, Nov. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 14): Is Jordan Poole a Must-Play?
