The NBA playoffs continue Tuesday with a three-game slate. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Jalen Brunson ($8,000)
After being held to less than 40 DraftKings points in both Games 3 and 4 in Atlanta, the Knicks are back home tonight, where Jalen Brunson is more comfortable. The guard posted 47.5 and 42.5 DraftKings points in Games 1 and 2 at home, and Brunson is scoring 3.0 more DraftKings PPG on his home floor than when on the road this season. Brunson is amassing 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a team-high 31% usage rate, and he should outproduce this depressed $8,000 salary, which is a $500 drop from Game 4.
Value
CJ McCollum ($6,800)
Opposite of Brunson, McCollum is also underpriced. The veteran has been awesome in this series vs. the Knicks, averaging 37.1 DraftKings PPG, including a 51.25 DraftKings point outing in Game 2. The Hawks have relied on McCollum heavily, with the guard leading the team with a 32.1% usage rate, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
Fast Break
Scoot Henderson ($5,400) – Henderson hit a wall in Game 4, scoring only 4.5 DraftKings points. The guard still logged 27 minutes, though, and most should fade Henderson after his dud in Game 4. Before this, Henderson had scored at least 27 DraftKings points in each of the first three games of this series, and our projections are slating him to be just 6% owned on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Jaylen Brown ($8,900)
Brown’s ceiling is easily the highest among shooting guards in our projections, and his salary has dipped under $9,000 for just the second time in the last month. Brown is generating 43.4 DraftKings PPG in eight matchups vs. the 76ers this season. The wing went off for 55.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 of this series vs. Philadelphia, and he has similar upside as the Celtics look to close out the rival in Boston tonight. Brown is producing 1.4 DraftKings PPM with a 35.9% usage rate this season.
Value
Josh Hart ($6,700)
Just like Brunson, Hart has been a better fantasy asset at home this season. The wing is scoring 3.1 more DraftKings PPG at home than on the road, and this was on full display in the first two games of this series vs. the Hawks, when Hart posted 42.5 and 43.75 DraftKings points, both of which were double-doubles. These clubs are tied at two wins apiece, and Hart should approach 40 minutes in tonight’s pivotal Game 5, giving him a strong chance of surpassing 5x value.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday ($7,000) – Holiday should see huge minutes as the Trail Blazers look to avoid elimination, and the veteran has a safe floor of around 30 DraftKings points. Holiday has provided at least 32.5 DraftKings points in every game of this series vs. the Spurs, with his best being a 53.5 DraftKings point outburst in Game 3.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Deni Avdija ($8,600)
This is the cheapest Avdija has been since early March, and with the Trail Blazers facing elimination tonight, the first-time All-Star must be on your radar. While the Spurs have held him to less than 40 DraftKings points in three straight, Avdija exposed San Antonio for 55.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, and he has topped 50 DraftKings points in five of his last 10. Avdija should barely leave the floor with Portland’s season on the line, giving him a top-three ceiling on the slate in our projections. This season, Avdija is leading the Trail Blazers with 1.4 DraftKings PPM and a 29.4% usage rate.
Value
Devin Vassell ($5,500)
Vassell has been reliable in this series vs. the Trail Blazers and just too cheap. Highlighted by a 43 DraftKings point showing in Game 2, the wing has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in all four of the games in this best of seven. Vassell is logging 34 minutes per game this postseason, which is a big increase from the 30.5 he averaged in the regular season, and this $5,500 salary doesn’t reflect his current role.
Fast Break
Jonathan Kuminga ($5,200) – This is a great time to buy low on Kuminga. The former lottery pick is projected for little ownership in our projections, as he is coming off a 11.5 DraftKings point performance in Game 4. While a letdown, Kuminga still logged 25 minutes and garnered a 23% usage rate, and before this, the ex-Warrior had topped 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum ($9,500)
Tatum has been outstanding and is an awesome value at this sub-$10,000 price tag. The forward just scored 56.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 on Sunday, which is the 10th time in Tatum’s last 12 that he has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points. Tatum is amassing 1.4 DraftKings PPM with a 29% usage rate this season, and with a chance to advance tonight on his home floor, Tatum should deliver another outing of at least 50 DraftKings points.
Value
Jerami Grant ($4,200)
After seeing limited work in the first three games of this series as he works his way back from a calf injury, Grant looked like himself in Game 4. The forward logged 33 minutes off the bench and posted 26.8 DraftKings points while shooting 6-of-12 from the field. The Trail Blazers need Grant to have another strong scoring night if they want to keep their season alive, and the veteran should see around 30 minutes again off the bench. Grant is far too cheap for this type of workload, and he is one of the top cheap plays on the board. Grant is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 23% usage rate this season.
Fast Break
OG Anunoby ($6,200) – Anunoby has been excellent vs. the Hawks, scoring 31, 33, 51.75, and 42.5 DraftKings points so far in this best of seven. Anunoby is shooting 56% from the field and 52% on three-pointers, and the Knicks should do their best to feed his hot hand in tonight’s pivotal Game 5.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300)
The Hawks have struggled to contain Towns all season. The big man has scored at least 55 DraftKings points in back-to-back games in this series, and he has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of his six matchups vs. Atlanta this season. Towns is shooting 59% from the field and producing 1.6 DraftKings PPM vs. the Hawks. Despite dominating in Game 4, Towns’ salary on DraftKings has dropped $300, and he is a tough value to overlook at just $8,300.
Value
Robert Williams ($4,400)
Williams is way too cheap and is the No. 1 value on the slate in our projections. The big man has been a strong spark off the bench for the Trail Blazers in this series vs. the Spurs, scoring at least 25 DraftKings points in three of four games. Williams has logged at least 23 minutes in three straight, and he ranks second for Portland in plus/minus this postseason, so this role should continue tonight with the Trail Blazers facing elimination. Williams is generating 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season, and exceeding 5x value shouldn’t be difficult for him tonight.
Fast Break
Victor Wembanyama ($11,000) – Wembanyama (concussion) made his return from a one-game absence for Sunday’s Game 4, and the superstar dominated for 68.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. However, his price tag on DraftKings has decreased $500 since. Wembanyama has scored at least 69 DraftKings points in four of his last seven, and having some exposure to him tonight is a must. This season, Wembanyama is scoring a ridiculous 1.8 DraftKings PPM with a 33% usage rate.
Joel Embiid ($8,300) – Embiid (appendix) made his return in Game 4, and while his defense was pitiful, the big man posted 52 DraftKings points while logging 34 minutes and seeing a huge 40% usage rate. Embiid has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of his last six, and with tonight being win-or-go home for the 76ers, Embiid is a great target at only $8,300. In his second-to-last game, Embiid was priced up to $9,500 on DraftKings.
Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo Credit: Imagn
