This Thursday, the NBA has four games lined up for NBA DFS contests, headlined by an NBA TV showdown between Steph Curry and the Warriors against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Of the eight teams on the board, only the Magic are playing for the second night in a row. Orlando is on the road in Charlotte after losing to Detroit to fall to 1-4 on the season. The rest of the teams have their injury reports in and are ready to roll for what should be a nice, solid slate of fantasy action.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Even with only eight teams in the player pool, point guard is stacked with elite options. The top median, ceiling, and floor projections come from Thunder superstar and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
SGA and the 5-0 Thunder host the Wizards in an outstanding matchup since Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to point guards and the most points per game in the NBA. Opponents have averaged 129.5 points per game against Washington, so the Thunder should be ready to rack up plenty of points. They have the highest implied team total on the slate (123.5), and the game has the second-highest total as well (232.5).
In three of his five games this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has earned over 55 DraftKings points. He had 55 points and a season-high 78.5 DraftKings points against the Pacers last Friday, and he has similar potential in this smash spot if the game stays competitive. With Jalen Williams (wrist) still sidelined and Chet Holmgren (back) missing a second straight game, SGA will have to carry most of the work for the offense, while the supporting cast should bring lots of value as well, as discussed below.
Value
The Magic have been very careful with Jalen Suggs (knee) after surgery in March, and he may sit out the second game of the back-to-back. If he does, or if he continues to play limited minutes as he has so far this season, Anthony Black should be a great source of value, while Tyus Jones could also get more work. Jones actually has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all point guards on Thursday, with Black second at the position. I prefer Black, though, since he has been more consistently productive in the early going this season.
The third-year point guard has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his last three games, scoring double-digit points in each of those outings. When Suggs sat out last Saturday against the Bulls, Black stepped up with 19 points, five rebounds, an assist, and a season-high 28.75 DraftKings points.
The team recently picked up Black’s fourth-year option for next season, and he looks to be a key contributor off their bench this season. He has good upside against Charlotte, since the matchup has the highest point total on the board. If Suggs does sit, Black’s ceiling will be even higher, but he’s a strong value either way.
Fast Break
On the other side of that potentially high-scoring contest, LaMelo Ball has the second-highest ceiling projection at point guard. Ball had a triple-double and 84.75 DraftKings points against the Wizards on Sunday and followed that up with 20 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds against the Heat on Tuesday. His multi-category potential and heavy usage give him a high ceiling in every matchup, and he has at least 20 points in every game this season.
The Thunder’s backup point guard, Ajay Mitchell, has helped Gilgeous-Alexander carry the scoring load with at least 14 points in every game this season. Mitchell is averaging 18.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 30.4 fantasy points in 27 minutes per game this season, making him a good midrange target in such a favorable matchup on Thursday.
In the ShotQuality projections for Thursday, Bub Carrington has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at point guard. Carrington started the season slowly but had 10 points and 27.75 DraftKings points on Tuesday to exceed salary-based expectations for the first time this season. He’ll look to build on that in Thursday’s matchup against the Thunder.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Spurs have started the season an impressive 4-0, coming into their Thursday night home game against the 3-1 Heat in what should be a great matchup. Second-year guard Stephon Castle has the highest median and floor projection at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections for Thursday.
The reigning Rookie of the Year has started all four games this season, averaging 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 33.4 DraftKings points per game. He matched his season high with 22 points on Monday against the Raptors, while exceeding salary-based expectations with 36.25 DraftKings points.
Eventually, Castle’s playing time will be impacted by De’Aaron Fox (hamstring) being ready to make his season debut, but for now, he should continue to start and get plenty of usage.
Value
Without Williams and Holmgren, Cason Wallace has played a more involved role for the Thunder in the early part of the season. Wallace ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections.
Wallace had 14 points and 38.8 DraftKings points in the season opener, but he missed the next game with a knee injury. He’s been playing through the issue since then, but he hasn’t been quite as productive.
In this matchup with the Wizards, though, he is a great play at either guard spot with the potential for big returns. He’s consistently a key contributor on the defensive end, which keeps him in the rotation, while his offense still ebbs and flows on a nightly basis. As a result, he’s a little boom-or-bust but offers great upside at this salary against Washington.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has the highest ceiling projection and the highest Plus/Minus projection of all shooting guards in the ShotQuality projections. McCollum had one strong game in his four games with Washington, producing 24 points and 40.5 DraftKings points against the Hornets. While he’s getting plenty of playing time, the veteran is still figuring out how he fits into the young Wizards’ rotation.
Spurs rookie Dylan Harper has scored double-digit points in each of his four games this season while contributing good non-scoring numbers as well. He has produced 1.15 DraftKings points per minute and is playing around 26 minutes per game off the bench while Fox is out.
With Brandon Miller (shoulder) out for a while, Tre Mann could step into a larger role for the Hornets. He played 27 minutes on Tuesday despite a questionable tag coming into the game, and he finished with eight points, five assists, and 22.8 DraftKings points. He shot just 3-for-15 from the field, but if his shooting returns to his average, he brings an excellent ceiling for a player with a salary under $4,000 on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Potentially without Suggs, Franz Wagner should remain a key part of the Magic’s offense as they look to snap their current skid during Thursday’s stop in Charlotte. Wagner has the highest media, ceiling and floor projection of all small forwards in the FantasyLabs projections, with a better PlusMinus projection than Jimmy Butler, who is the other big-name option at the position.
Wagner has scored at least 17 points in each of his games this season and has 35+ DraftKings points in all but one of his five games. He had 22 points and seven rebounds for 36.8 DraftKings points on Wednesday in Detroit.
While the team has scuffled a bit, dropping four straight, Wagner’s production has remained strong, and he remains a strong, consistent forward to build around. If Suggs is out, that could mean even more playmaking responsibilities for Wagner. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward as well in the FantasyLabs projections.
Value
The Heat were without Norman Powell (groin) on Tuesday, and the veteran is listed as doubtful for Thursday’s matchup against the Spurs. One player who stepped up on Tuesday and is a great value on Thursday is Pelle Larsson.
Larsson moved into the starting lineup in place of Powell and delivered a big game. On Thursday, Larsson has the highest Plus/Minus projections at shooting guard and the second-highest at small forward in the FantasyLabs projections for this Thursday. He also has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at both positions in the ShotQuality projections.
On Tuesday, Larsson scored 17 points to go with five rebounds and three assists for 31.2 DraftKings points. He had only averaged 4.5 DraftKings points in the first three games of the season, but his bigger workload led to a breakout game for the second-year wing from Sweden.
Fast Break
For the Wizards, Kyshawn George has scored 20+ points in three of his four games this season, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those three games with over 44 DraftKings points. He played 40 minutes on Tuesday, producing 20 points, nine rebounds, seven assists, and 49.2 DraftKings points. He was even better last week, finishing up with 34 points and 66.2 DraftKings points by stuffing the box score against the Mavericks.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his four games this season, and he also stepped up with Powell out on Tuesday. Jaquez had a season-high 28 points while helping to pick up Powell’s work and posted his second game this season with over 40 DraftKings points.
If you need to go extremely cheap at small forward, Tristan da Silva and Simone Fontecchio both have good Plus/Minus projections from under $4,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In both the ShotQuality and FantasyLabs projections, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players on the slate. Giannis is a pricey player to build around and may not bring the most value, but if you can squeeze his salary under your cap, there’s no arguing with his upside.
Giannis had 37 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and 61.5 DraftKings points in a statement win over the Knicks on Tuesday and has earned over 60 DraftKings points in each of his four games this season. His best game of the year was Sunday, when he posted 80 DraftKings points on 40 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists, two blocks, and two steals in just 33 minutes against the Cavs.
Even though his minutes have actually been relatively manageable, Antetokounmpo is posting massive and efficient numbers, averaging 2.07 DraftKings points per minute. He could be extra fired up to make another statement with a big game against the Warriors on Thursday, making him a great fantasy cornerstone to build around once again.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Heat forwards Bam Adebayo and Nikola Jovic are first and second in Plus/Minus projection at power forward, while in the FantasyLabs projections, they check in at second and third. Adebayo is an expensive play despite his upside, but Jovic brings very solid value at an affordable price as long as he plays through a hip contusion that has him questionable.
Jovic had 10 points, six boards, and 21.5 DraftKings points in Tuesday’s win over the Hornets, and he was even better last week with 20 points and 38.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies. He has at least 19 DraftKings points in each of his last three games.
If Powell is out, that should leave more room for Jovic. If his hip injury turns out to be more of an issue than expected and keeps him sidelined, then it would be Fontecchio who gets even more work and emerges as an elite value play at forward.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero has the highest Plus/Minus projection in the FantasyLabs projections. He had a double-double with 24 points, 11 boards, and seven assists on his way to 51.8 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s loss. Potential fatigue makes him a little risky, but his matchup against the Hornets should be another one where he can flourish, especially if carrying more work with Suggs potentially out.
With Holmgren out, Aaron Wiggins should get more work for the Thunder on Thursday. He had 18 points, six rebounds, six assists, and 43 DraftKings points on Tuesday when Holmgren was out, and he has a good ceiling for a mid-range play at power forward on Thursday against the Wizards.
Like at small forward, da Silva and Fontecchio are the bargain plays under $4,000 to consider on this slate coming into the day, with Cam Whitmore another flier with upside as he settles into the Wizards rotation.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Spurs’ hot start has been mostly fueled by Victor Wembanyama, who has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all centers on the board by a wide margin this Thursday.
He had three massive fantasy games to start the season, producing over 67 DraftKings points in each of those three games before cooling off to “just” 52.25 DraftKings points on Monday against Toronto.
Wemby has a double-double and at least 24 points in each of his four games this season and also contributes elite blocks and steals. His projections are just a little bit lower than Giannis’s overall, but his Plus/Minus projection is higher since he is $400 cheaper. Either big man is a great option to build around since they are both producing such monster numbers early in the year. It just depends on who fits best in your roster construction.
Value
In both sets of projections, Isaiah Hartenstein has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate, making him a key value to build around.
He gets a great matchup against the Wizards and should get more work with Holmgren sidelined. He only had four points on Tuesday in the first game Holmgren missed, but he still had 14 rebounds to finish with 29 DraftKings points. He had been more productive in scoring with double-digit points in each of his two previous games, so he should be on track for a double-double with a good ceiling against the Wizards.
Getting him for under $7,000 makes him a key part of a balanced lineup or a stars and scrubs build. The only real tough part is using him alongside Wemby ties up your UTIL spot if you choose to build that way.
Fast Break
While Hartenstein deserves to be a very popular play, Alexandre Sarr is about the same salary and has also been excellent for fantasy in the early going this season. He has over 38 DraftKings points in three straight games and is coming off a 31-point double-double that earned him over 60 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Sixers. The second-year center has been stuffing the stat sheet and has a very high ceiling under $7,000. His ownership projection is much lower than Hartenstein’s, making him a savvy GPP pivot option.
Wendell Carter Jr. had a rough night on Wednesday with just eight points and two rebounds in 15 minutes, but he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on Thursday in what should be a bounce-back spot for him. He had produced over 25 DraftKings points in three straight before only managing 12 DraftKings points on Wednesday, so as long as he’s not dealing with an injury that we don’t know about yet, he should be able to take advantage of a good matchup against the Hornets, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to centers this season.
Pictured: SGA
Photo Credit: Imagn
