After two games on Tuesday and a massive, 12-game slate on Wednesday, Thursday brings another focused two-game slate. The Thunder and Warriors are back in action after winning on Tuesday, as they take on the Pacers and Nuggets, who are the last two teams to get their regular season started. The ESPN doubleheader tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET and includes plenty of good options for DFS fantasy basketball.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Thunder raised their banner Tuesday and looked ready for a dominant season led by superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The reigning MVP started the season hot with 55.75 DraftKings points on 35 points, five rebounds, five assists, two blocks, and two steals in his team’s season-opening double-overtime win over the Rockets.
SGA has the highest median and floor projections of all players on Thursday’s slate, and he is just behind Nikola Jokic for the top ceiling projection. He is good and should continue to carry the load, especially with Jalen Williams (wrist) still not ready to make his season debut. He should be in a good matchup against the up-tempo Pacers, and his Thunder have the highest implied team total on the slate (120).
He is my top star to build around, and he actually seems a little underpriced relative to the rest of the star options available. He has a positive Plus/Minus projection and the best Pts/Sal of the options over $8,000 on DraftKings.
Value
While SGA carries most of the workload, there are some great value plays available from the Thunder on Thursday as well. They’ll be without Isaiah Joe (knee) and Alex Caruso (concussion) in addition to Williams, leaving more work available for Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace (knee), who have the top two Plus/Minus projections at the point guard position.
Wallace is questionable after playing 42 minutes on Tuesday, racking up 38.75 DraftKings points with 14 points, seven rebounds, five assists, four steals, and three three-pointers. If he’s able to play without limitations, he should be a great value play and could be poised to take a significant leap this season.
Mitchell was also very involved on Tuesday, chipping in 16 points and 25 DraftKings points in 15 minutes. If Wallace is out, Mitchell will be an even better play, but even if he plays, Mitchell seems set up for enough work in the second unit to be a nice bargain under $4,000.
Fast Break
On Tuesday, Stephen Curry hit the long-range, dagger three-pointer that made all the highlights but only ended up with 23 points and 38.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers. Especially playing at home, he always brings the potential for greatness, but he seems a little pricey compared to the other options on the board Thursday night.
Andrew Nembhard has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at point guard in the ShotQuality projections, and he’s a very solid mid-range play to build around. He’ll be making his season debut and will be filling in with as many minutes as possible since Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Kam Jones (back), and Quenton Jackson (hamstring) are all unavailable. Nembhard has looked sharp running the Pacers’ offense in the preseason, so he could be an excellent multi-category contributor from his mid-range salary.
Veteran Bruce Brown could be in a solid bench role for the Nuggets after rejoining the Nuggets on a one-year deal this offseason. He’s expected to help provide some spark in the second unit, and he’s extremely affordable for the season opener.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin edges out his teammate Andrew Nembhard for the top ceiling, median, and floor projection at shooting guard. He’s expected to carry more of the scoring load than Nembhard, who will have more point guard and playmaking responsibilities. Since Mathurin is slightly cheaper, he’s got a much stronger Plus/Minus projection as well.
Mathurin has shown the potential to go off with big offensive games in the past but hasn’t consistently been asked to carry the scoring load. He’s coming off a red-hot preseason as well, highlighted by a 31-point performance across just 23 minutes against the Spurs.
He brings a very high ceiling in his expanded role and makes a great play either at shooting guard or small forward depending on how your roster construction comes together for Thursday’s slate. Mathurin has the highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Cason Wallace (discussed above) is just behind Mathurin, followed by Luguentz Dort, who could have an even higher ceiling and usage if Wallace is ruled out because of his knee injury.
Dort exceeded salary-based expectations in Tuesday’s opener, posting a balanced line with six points, six boards, five assists, and 22.5 DraftKings points in 45 minutes. He logs big workloads due to his defensive contributions but can pick up more offensive work in some scenarios as well. If Wallace is out, look for Dort as a solid pivot at shooting guard.
Fast Break
Christian Braun took huge steps forward last year for the Nuggets and will be relied upon to carry the load again this year. He agreed to a five-year, $125 million rookie contract extension this offseason and should be a key contributor after his breakout year. He’s a solid play at just over $5,000 in his season debut, although his ceiling isn’t quite as high as the Pacers’ guards since Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are healthy and primed to help carry the offense as well.
With Moses Moody (calf) out Thursday, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, and Gary Payton II should help carry the load in the Warriors backcourt. Podziemski can be a streaky producer, which makes him worth a look in GPP formats on this small slate, and Payton can be used as a punt play since his salary is under $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler is starting his first full season in Golden State, and the Warriors’ forward has the highest ceiling projection at the position on Thursday night. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all players on the slate in the ShotQuality projections and the fourth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
On Tuesday, Butler had 31 points, five boards, four assists, and one steal across 35 minutes for 45.25 DraftKings points. He isn’t quite as cheap as Mathurin, but he is a more proven option if you have the salary available.
He was dealing with an ankle injury in preseason, but he looked fine on Tuesday and should be a solid multi-category producer as long as he’s healthy this season.
Value
Mathurin and Butler have the top two Plus/Minus projections at small forward, with Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith just behind them with the third-highest Plus/Minus projection in the ShotQuality projections and the fourth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Like Mathurin and Nembhard, he’ll have to help cover for multiple absences this season for the Pacers, and he brings a high ceiling as a result of his projected usage increase. He has an 18.5% usage projection in this contest, and he typically logs plenty of minutes on the wing for coach Rick Carlisle. He could be in for a breakout year in the Pacers’ new-look rotation after being a meaningful role player the last few seasons.
Fast Break
Cameron Johnson will be making his Nuggets debut after joining the team in the trade from the Nets this offseason. He could be an excellent fit as a floor-spacing option alongside Jokic and Murray, although his upside is a little uncertain depending on his usage in his new role. He has shown off a high ceiling, though, and is definitely a player for the Nuggets and their fans to be excited about this season.
If you need an ultra-cheap bargain at small forward, Johnny Furphy will be in the mix for the Pacers’ shorthanded backcourt. He also missed time this preseason with an ankle injury but looked strong in his earlier preseason games and is cleared to go for Thursday’s season opener. He offers a little more upside than Ben Sheppard, although the Pacers’ rotation isn’t exactly clear yet since this is their first game of the season.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In the ShotQuality projections, Pascal Siakam has the highest ceiling projection of all power forwards. He also has the highest usage projection at the position at 25%.
In the six regular-season games that Spicy P played without Haliburton last year, he averaged 36.2 DraftKings points with a 25.3% usage rate that was second behind only Mathurin’s usage rate. He produced an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in those six games.
With more of the workload and a little more freedom now that Myles Turner is in Milwaukee, Siakam could take on even more of the offense this season for the Pacers.
Value
Aaron Wiggins has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections, and with so many depth options already ruled out for OKC, he could have a huge workload if Wallace is out as well.
Wiggins played 21 minutes in the opener and had 10 points, two three-pointers, a rebound, an assist and 13.25 DraftKings points. With more work, though, his ceiling would jump against the Pacers, making him an elite value at just over $4,000.
If Wallace plays, the value options are a little limited at the position, although Nesmith and Johnson (discussed above) are solid mid-range plays.
Fast Break
Jonathan Kuminga can be a boom-or-bust play for the Warriors, and he started the season with 17 points, nine boards, and 40.25 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Lakers. After a long contract saga this offseason, he still seems ready to contribute good fantasy numbers right away when he’s given the chance. Coach Steve Kerr loves to constantly tweak his rotation, though, so he could be volatile from matchup to matchup.
If you have to go ultra-cheap at power forward, Jerace Walker could be in the mix for the Pacers. The 2023 first-round pick missed the end of the preseason with a back injury but is ready to go for the season opener. He could earn more time in the rotation this season following Turner’s departure.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic is always worth considering when he’s on the slate because he brings such elite production on a regular basis. He is the most expensive player on the slate, but he has the highest ceiling projection on the board by a margin of almost 10 fantasy points.
Last year, Jokic produced a remarkable 1.85 DraftKings points per minute for the Nuggets. He produced 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game last year, setting new career highs in multiple categories.
He rested the final game of the preseason but should be a full go for Thursday as the Nuggets roll out their new-look rotation against the Warriors in Game 1 of their quest to get back to the playoffs.
If you think the Thunder could be a little off after their marathon win in Game 1 or you expect a blowout against the Pacers, it could make more sense to build around Jokic than SGA if you can find a way to save up to afford his hefty salary.
Value
Now that they don’t have Myles Turner, the Pacers will likely start Isaiah Jackson at center, but he has had foul trouble in that role in the past and is working his way back from an Achilles injury last November. The better value play, according to both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections, is Jay Huff, who has a very low salary but should see significant run off the bench.
Huff played 64 games last year with the Grizzlies, producing 6.9 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks in just 11.7 minutes per game. However, he did show a much higher ceiling when he got more minutes and could play his way into a more significant role for the Pacers this season.
Fast Break
Even though the Thunder dominated last year and won the title, Chet Holmgren still feels like he could take another step forward this season. With Jalen Williams out, he is the clear secondary option in the offense, and he delivered a huge game against the Rockets on Tuesday, pouring in 28 points and 39.25 DraftKings points. He can stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories when he’s at his best, and he’s a solid pay-up play if you can’t scrape together enough salary for Jokic.
After being traded last year from the Wizards to the Kings, Jonas Valanciunas signed this offseason with the Nuggets, and he’ll serve as the primary backup for Jokic. His minutes and usage are a little uncertain in that role for Thursday’s season opener, but he showed last year that when he gets the playing time, he can still contribute meaningful fantasy numbers.
Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Imagn
