After 12 games on Wednesday night, the NBA has a lighter three-game slate on Thursday, just before a nine-game NBA Cup schedule on Friday. The Hawks, Cavaliers, and Suns are playing for a second day in a row, but none of the six games on Thursday’s schedule play again on Friday. Even with just six teams in the player pool, there are plenty of good fantasy options to consider, so let’s take a look at who looks strong headed into the day. Be sure to check back for updates to our models as things change throughout the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
On Thursday’s slate, all three games should be played at fast tempos with plenty of points scored. In a favorable matchup in Utah, Dyson Daniels has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all point guards, and he has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the point guards on the slate as well.
Daniels has been carrying more of the offensive workload while Trae Young (knee) has been sidelined. He has averaged 35.6 DraftKings points per game over his last seven games on 11.7 points, a team-high 7.4 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game. He has chipped in multiple steals in six of those seven games as well, earning at least 27 DraftKings points in each game with a pair of ceiling performances over 40 DraftKings points.
Daniels brings both a high ceiling and a solid floor to this matchup since he produces in so many categories. He gets a boost from facing the Jazz, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards and the 10th-most to point guards on the season.
Value
While all three games have healthy over/under point totals, the highest point total on the board is from the Raptors-Cavaliers matchup, according to our Vegas Dashboard. In that game, Immanuel Quickley is a great mid-range play at point guard, since he has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all point guards on the board.
Quickley has at least 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists for at least 35 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. His totals have been trending upwards through his most recent game, when he had 24 points and 46.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Nets.
The sixth-year point guard finally looks healthy and has shaken off his early-season shooting woes, giving him a very high ceiling as a multi-category contributor in a matchup that should feature plenty of points for both teams.
Fast Break
Suns point guard Devin Booker actually has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at point guard on Thursday, but his Plus/Minus projections indicate he may not be worth his elevated salary, which is $2,000 higher than Daniels’ and $2,400 more than Quickley’s. Booker has impressed, though, with 45.4 DraftKings points per game this season while carrying the Suns offense in the absence of Jalen Green (hamstring) and with Kevin Durant traded to Houston. Booker has at least 44 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games and has a hefty 31.6% usage rate on the season, which gives him a high ceiling and makes him a strong pay-up option on any slate.
Facing Booker in Phoenix, the Pacers will have Andrew Nembhard back for a fourth straight game after the young point guard missed seven games with a shoulder injury sustained on opening night. Nembhard has 30+ DraftKings points in each of his three games since returning and is coming off a season-high 39 DraftKings points on Tuesday in the Pacers’ loss to the Jazz.
Jordan Goodwin has the third-highest Plus/Minus projections of all point guards and is a great cheap play from his salary under $4,000. Goodwin has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games, with his only recent letdown being the game that Jalen Green played before re-injuring his hamstring. Goodwin has played 23 and 20 minutes in the two games since then, producing 21.75 and 27.0 DraftKings points against the Pelicans and Mavericks. Goodwin seems to have carved out a significant role in the second unit for as long as Green remains shelved.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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With Darius Garland (toe) likely missing a few games with a toe contusion, Donovan Mitchell will step back into the spotlight for the Cavaliers. Mitchell has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard this Thursday, and his team has the highest implied team total.
Mitchell is averaging 48.6 DraftKings points per game this season with a 31.6% usage rate. That number climbs even higher with Garland off the floor, and he has produced an elite 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with Garland off the floor this season.
Last night, Mitchell and several key Cavs starters rested against the Heat, but the team rallied and won anyway, improving to 8-4 on the season. The home matchup with the Raptors should give Spida a great spot to get back into the action with a big game on Thursday night. He’s one of the top pay-up plays to build around on this three-game slate.
Value
The Hawks brought in Nickeil Alexander-Walker this offseason, and the veteran has also stepped into a pivotal role alongside Daniels while Trae Young is out. Alexander-Walker has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker just returned from missing two games with a back issue, but he looked sharp in his return, chipping in 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and 30 DraftKings points in 22 minutes in a soft landing spot against the Kings.
He gets another very favorable matchup in Utah on Thursday night, and he will look to continue his strong start. He’s averaged 17.2 points and 29 DraftKings points in his 10 games this season, and he has been critical to the Hawks staying on course despite their injuries early in the season. Getting him at $6,000 is a great value play this Thursday night.
Fast Break
RJ Barrett has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard on Thursday. He’s looking to bounce back from a down game with just 13 points on Tuesday, but on the season, he’s still averaging 34.4 DraftKings points per game. The Raptors’ rotation is a little crowded with Quickley taking on more offense, but Barrett still brings good upside when called upon to carry more of the load.
In the ShotQuality projections for Thursday, Jazz wing Brice Sensabaugh has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard. He’s gotten a little more run with Taylor Hendricks (hamstring) and Kyle Anderson (back) out, and he has scored double-digit points in each of his last two contests. On Tuesday, he had 16 points and four boards for 28 DraftKings points. Since his salary is under $4,000, that kind of potential makes him a great play to consider at either shooting guard or small forward if you have to go cheap.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While Brandon Ingram has slightly higher ceiling projections, De’Andre Hunter looks like the better small forward option to build around on Thursday since he comes $1,000 cheaper and has almost the same projections.
Hunter has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and had 21 points on Wednesday while helping to fill in for Mitchell and the other missing Cavs. He finished with 34.5 DraftKings points in that game and has put up over 34 DraftKings points in five of his last six games overall.
Against the Raptors, he had 26 points and 39 DraftKings points earlier this season, and he’ll look to attack that same matchup for another big total on Thursday. The Cavs lost that game 112-101, and they’ll be looking for some payback as they finish their back-to-back Thursday.
Value
In both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections, rookie Ace Bailey has the highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward, edging out Hunter by a narrow margin in both sets of projections since his salary is an affordable $4,800.
The No. 5 overall pick in last year’s draft is still only 19 years old, but he looks ready to establish himself as one of the core pieces of the young Jazz’ rebuild. Bailey has started the last two games for Utah, producing 26.8 and 28 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves and Pacers.
Bailey had a career-high 20 points on Tuesday to cap three consecutive performances with double-digit points. He’ll have a tough matchup against the Hawks’ solid defensive wings, but he brings enough potential to look past the matchup and still use him as a great value play at the position.
Fast Break
With Green out, Grayson Allen has had to step into a much larger role for the Suns, and he has the third-highest ceiling, floor, and median projections at small forward this Thursday. He went off for a massive 42 points on Monday of this week against the Pelicans, finishing with 61 DraftKings points. He followed that up with another solid showing on Wednesday against the Mavs, dropping 23 points and 42.75 DraftKings points. He’s definitely a solid mid-range target in Thursday’s matchup with the Pacers, although he can be a little streaky since he relies on his outside shot so much.
For the Hawks, Zaccharie Risacher has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games, chipping in at least 11 points in five straight contests. He doesn’t have quite the value upside that Bailey brings, but he’s another young player who is fun to watch as he grows into a meaningful role.
Vit Krejci has scored double-digit points and exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games for Atlanta, making him a good bargain option to consider at small forward along with Brice Sensabaugh (discussed above).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
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Even on such a small slate, power forward is a packed position with multiple excellent options on Thursday. Pascal Siakam has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, and he also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Siakam has had to carry the load for the Pacers amidst all their injuries and has averaged 45.8 DraftKings points per game with a 30.6% usage rate. He returned from a game off and had 27 points and 41.2 DraftKings points against the Jazz.
If the Pacers and Suns game is close throughout, Siakam has a very high ceiling, and he already went off for over 60 DraftKings points in two of his games this season. When he’s at his best, Siakam can fill up the stat sheet in multiple categories and carry your team to a win.
Value
Behind the elite options at the top of the slate at power forward, the best value option is Kyle Filipowski, who has the third-highest Plus/Minus projections at the position in the ShotQuality projections.
While the second-year big man has a huge opportunity ahead of him with Walker Kessler (shoulder) out for the season, he has struggled to find his footing this year overall, managing just 7.7 points and 5.0 rebounds per game.
Lately, though, he’s shown some positive signs. He had a nine-point, 10-rebound game against the Timberwolves last Friday for 28 DraftKings points, and on Tuesday, he had a season-high 29.2 DraftKings points on 16 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. His salary has climbed $600 since then, but he’s still a good value since he has the potential to take off for the Jazz in the coming weeks, since the minutes and usage should be available for him.
Fast Break
While Siakam has the highest ceiling projection, Jalen Johnson has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward. He has posted two huge games since missing one game with a quad injury. Johnson had 16 points, 10 boards, eight assists, and 45.5 DraftKings points against the Clippers on Monday, and he followed that up with 24 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, and 52.5 DraftKings points against the Kings on Wednesday. He wasrested on the second night of back-to-backs earlier this season, though, so be sure to double-check his availability for Thursday’s game in Utah.
Evan Mobley rested the first game of the Cavs’ back-to-back, and he should be ready to return on Thursday. Jarrett Allen carried the weight while he was out, and he could return the favor on Thursday if Allen is rested. Mobley has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in the FantasyLabs projections, behind only Johnson.
Since there are so many big names at power forward, the bargain options are a little thin. Mouhamed Gueye (more below) has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the options around $4,000, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has been getting plenty of playing time for the banged-up Pacers.
NBA DFS Center Picks
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Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all players in both the ShotQuality projections and the FantasyLabs projections.
Okongwu is one of the best plays on the slate since the Hawks will almost certainly give Kristaps Porzingis the second night of their back-to-back off. Okongwu had 37 DraftKings points on 12 points, eight rebounds, four assists, three steals, and two blocks when Porzingis sat out against the Lakers last Friday.
In the three games he has played without Porzingis this season, Okongwu is averaging 36.3 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes per game. In an absolutely smash spot against the beat-up Jazz big men, he should be a great play to build around this Thursday.
Value
Jarrett Allen has the second-highest ceiling projection and Plus/Minus projection at the position behind Okongwu, and he’s a solid play at almost the same salary. Okongwu’s ownership projection is high, so Allen could be a good GPP pivot, especially if he stays hot after Wednesday’s big win.
Allen had 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 46.5 DraftKings points to lead the Cavs past the Heat, but he did have to carry more of the load with Mobley and Mitchell resting. With those two starters expected back, he could get the night off or play reduced minutes, which raises his risk.
However, if the veteran continues to grind out big games like he has been, he could be an elite value at the position. Allen has exceeded salary-based expectations with a double-double in three of his last five contests coming into Thursday’s matchup with the Raps.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has been starting for the Jazz since Walker’s injury, and he has averaged 6.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.3 steals in his 26.8 minutes per game over his six starts. He had over 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, including an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double against the Pacers on Tuesday. His salary is right around Allen’s and Okongwu’s, and Okongwu brings a higher upside. If you need a contrarian pivot, though, Nurkic could make sense if he has another double-double.
Porzingis’ resting would also open up time for Gueye (mentioned above) to pick up work as a cheap option at center. He posted an impressive 21 points, seven rebounds, seven assists, and 47.2 DraftKings points in the last game Porzingis sat out, but he has only posted 10.2 and 12.8 DraftKings points in his two games since that outburst.
Pictured: Dyson Daniels
Photo Credit: Imagn
