The NBA has a smaller slate of three games on the board for this Thursday, with all three games tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Of the six teams in action, only the Pistons are playing for the second day in a row, while the Hornets and Knicks meet in the spotlight matchup on NBA TV. Even with a much smaller slate and only one back-to-back, be sure to check back for any injury updates before tip-off. Making the right last-minute adjustments can be critical to success at this point in the DFS fantasy basketball season, but coming into the day, some standout options are already popping in our projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, LaMelo Ball has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard, edging out his opponent, Jalen Brunson, who also comes with a higher salary.
Ball is the better option based on the projections and is coming off a strong run of production. He exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games, averaging 46.9 DraftKings points per game over that stretch. He had 30 points and 13 assists for 60 DraftKings points against the Heat just over a week ago, and he had 29 points and 48.75 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on Saturday.
Ball and the Hornets are trying to prove they belong with the Eastern Conference elite, and this matchup on Thursday night is a great spot for them to get a statement win in their matchup against New York.
Value
The Pistons came up just inches short of the win last night against the Hawks, but they fell by one point in overtime when the Jalen Duren putback hung on the rim and fell off. The team has continued to play well even after losing Cade Cunningham to injury, partly due to Daniss Jenkins stepping up. Jenkins has the highest Plus/Minus projection of any player on Thursday night’s slate and should be in a favorable matchup as the team finishes its back-to-back with a home game against the Pelicans.
Jenkins stepped back into the starting lineup four games ago and has averaged 20.0 points, 7.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 38 DraftKings points per game. He had a double-double to earn 38.75 DraftKings points on Wednesday against the Hawks, but he did have to play a massive 45 minutes.
Fatigue could be a factor, but the matchup against the Pelicans should be favorable enough to still give Jenkins a great opportunity to return outstanding value. Since his salary is barely over $6,000 and his production in each of his last three games has been over 38 DraftKings points, he has a very high ceiling if the opportunity remains available.
Fast Break
The Pelicans listed both Dejounte Murray (rest) and Trey Murphy III (ankle) on the injury report as questionable for their matchup with the Pistons. If one sits and the other plays, the guard pushing through the injury will have an even higher ceiling, but if both end up getting the night off, Jeremiah Fears could step up as one of the best value plays on the board at only $4,200.
The Magic actually have the highest point total of the teams in action this Thursday, according to our Vegas dashboard. With Jalen Suggs questionable after missing the last two games with an illness, Jevon Carter is a strong value play to consider after the veteran posted double-digit points in five of his last six games and had 15 points and 29.5 DraftKings points against the Cavs on Tuesday. Carter has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at point guard behind only Jenkins.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, Trey Murphy III has the highest median and ceiling projections of all shooting guards, and he has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all shooting guards over $6,000.
As mentioned above, Murphy is questionable, but he has scored double-digit points in each of his 12 games in March, averaging 19.9 points and 37.9 DraftKings points per game. He has shown a very high ceiling when asked to take on a larger role and can light up the scoreboard with big point totals or turn in well-rounded statlines.
If he is able to play through his questionable tag, he brings excellent upside, especially if the Pels opt to give Murray a rest day and Murphy moves back to point guard.
Value
The Kings will be without Russell Westbrook (toe), Nique Clifford (foot), and possibly Killian Hayes (toe), who is questionable. With so many guards missing time, Devin Carter and Malik Monk both represent good value potential in this matchup with the Magic.
Carter has the highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard in both sets of projections and the second-highest overall in the FantasyLabs projections, behind only Jenkins. Carter scored 24 points in 16 minutes earlier this month before missing five games with a bruised calf. In his two games since returning, he posted 15 points and 27.2 DraftKings points against the Nets and 18 points and 29.2 DraftKings points against the Hornets. The Kings will want to take a long look at the young guard to see how he fits into the Kings’ future plans, so he should get a large workload going forward.
Monk can produce fantasy points in multiple ways, as he has shown in the last two games. He had 32 points and 47 DraftKings points against the Nets and followed that with 14 assists and 33.75 DraftKings points against the Hornets. He still has the potential to put up big numbers when minutes are available for him, which they should be in this matchup.
Fast Break
Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel has cooled off a little recently, but on this small slate, he could be a very nice source of leverage since he brings a high ceiling against the Knicks. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard.
Coming off the bench behind Knueppel for the Hornets, Coby White has found a great role since arriving from the Bulls at the trade deadline. He has averaged 21.6 points and 34.75 DraftKings points over his last five games, and he still comes at a good value with lots of upside as the team “instant offense” in the second unit.
Duncan Robinson, Kevin Huerter, and Caris LeVert have picked up more work with Cade Cunningham out, and they have good upside depending on exactly who is available on the second night of the team back-to-back.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Especially if Suggs misses another game for the Magic, Desmond Bane will continue to carry a big workload. He has the highest median and ceiling projections at small forward in both sets of projections and the highest at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections as well.
Bane has a very high ceiling in this soft matchup against the Kings, even though his salary has caught up to his elevated workload. He has scored 15+ points in 10 of his last 11 games, averaging 20.9 points and adding 4.6 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game for 36.7 DraftKings points per contest.
In his last four games, Bane has been steady, producing 30+ DraftKings points in each matchup, with a high point of 38.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets last Thursday.
Value
Bane’s teammate Tristan da Silva is one of just two small forwards with higher Plus/Minus projections than Bane in the FantasyLabs projections, and both are also near the top of Plus/Minus in the ShotQuality projections at the position as well.
With Franz Wagner and Anthony Black both out, da Silva has found consistent playing time over the last month, and the second-year forward has made the most of his chances. He has started 16 of his last 18 games, averaging 13.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals in 31.2 minutes per game.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, posting 37.75 DraftKings points against the Pacers and 31 DraftKings points against the Cavs. Facing the Kings should be another favorable matchup for da Silva, so consider him a strong midrange play at either forward spot.
Fast Break
Brandon Miller is one of the key scorers for the Hornets and has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position in both sets of projections. His salary is a little steep since Ball and Knueppel have done more of the work lately, but he still has huge upside.
In the ShotQuality projections, Herbert Jones has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at small forward, and he could be busier if Murphy and Murray end up sitting. He and Saddiq Bey both have high ceilings for the Pelicans as they visit the Pistons if work comes their way.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
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In the FantasyLabs projections, Paolo Banchero has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate as he faces the Kings in what should be a smash spot. Banchero is expensive at over $9,000 but has the high ceiling you want in a pay-up option on a small slate like Thursday’s.
Banchero showed his huge upside with 39 points and 54.5 DraftKings points against the Pacers on Monday and followed that up with 36 points, six rebounds, and five assists on his way to 54 DraftKings points the next night in Cleveland.
Even though the Magic are struggling, it isn’t because Banchero isn’t doing his part. In fact, since the team so badly needs a win, look for them to lean heavily on Paolo to get them a home victory over the Kings. Especially if Suggs stays sidelined, look for plenty of work for Banchero on Thursday.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Tobias Harris has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward. He had a solid 22 points in 35 minutes on Wednesday and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games.
Harris will have to continue to help pick up the workload for the Pistons while Cunningham is out, and a favorable matchup against the Pelicans makes him a solid midrange target with good upside as long as he is good to go for the second night of the back-to-back. He played two days in a row last week and had 30 DraftKings points on 13 points, six rebounds, and five assists against the Warriors.
As long as he isn’t on the injury report, he brings a high ceiling and solid floor at his salary under $6,000.
Fast Break
Zion Williamson and former Piston Saddiq Bey both bring high ceilings on the other side of the matchup in the Motor City, but their playing time has been a little uncertain with the Pelicans out of contention. Williamson had 25 points and 40 DraftKings points against the Cavs last Saturday, and he still has plenty of upside coming down the stretch. Bey did some of his best work when Williamson or other Pelicans were absent, but he also hit 40 DraftKings points last Thursday against the Clippers, so he still brings nice upside.
Tristan da Silva (discussed above) has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections, but Grant Williams has the second-highest from his salary of $3,100, just over the minimum. Williams’ contributions have been a little erratic off the Hornets bench, but he is a punt play worth checking out against the Knicks.
Another bargain to consider is Karlo Matkovic, who has posted over 18 DraftKings points in four of his last six games for the Pelicans and is still under $4,000.
NBA DFS Center Picks
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Even though his game-winning putback came up short, Jalen Duren still finished Wednesday’s game with great numbers overall. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center in both sets of projections.
Duren finished Wednesday with 26 points, 14 boards, and 51.5 DraftKings points in 42 minutes. He has posted six double-doubles in his last seven games and scored at least 20 points in each of those seven contests, producing 43.9 DraftKings points per contest.
The Pelicans have been a great matchup for centers all season, and if Duren is ready for another big workload, he has the potential to post another monster number as the focus of the offense without Cunningham. He’s cheaper than Karl-Anthony Towns, and Towns has much more help around him right now in the lineup.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Wendell Carter Jr. has the highest Plus/Minus projections at center. He’s in a good matchup against the Kings and should be able to return excellent value at his salary of just over $5,000.
The Magic big man has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and six of his last eight, scoring double-digit points in each of those eight games. He is averaging 14.8 points and 7.1 rebounds per game over that span and producing over 30 DraftKings points per contest. He doesn’t have the usage and ceiling that Banchero brings, but he should still have a chance to go off in the matchup.
Fast Break
Moussa Diabate has taken over the center spot for the Hornets and brings a good Plus/Minus projection in both sets of projections against New York. He has been steady lately and is coming off big double-doubles in each of his last two games with 39 and 40.75 DraftKings points in those two contests.
If you opt to go cheap at center, Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic are both viable plays for the Pelicans as they try to slow down Duren. Missi had a down game against the Knicks on Tuesday but had exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his six games before that.
Pictured: Paolo Banchero
Photo Credit: Imagn
