The NBA has a huge nine-game slate on Thursday, and the first eight of those games are on the DraftKings main DFS fantasy basketball slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. As usual at this time of the season, many injuries are starting to impact rotations as teams make their push to the playoffs or their limp to the finish line. With so much fluidity, fantasy managers need to keep a close eye on the injury reports, especially for those teams playing on either side of the back-to-back games. As the availability of players is finalized throughout the day, the models will change and adjust, so be sure to check back before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The two big point guards to consider on Thursday’s slate are Cade Cunningham and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Since the Sixers are so short-handed (more below), the Pistons could turn that game into a blowout; therefore, I think SGA is the slightly better option for this Thursday if you have the salary to pay up at point guard. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at point guard and is coming off a monster game on Monday.
Against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, SGA had 75.75 DraftKings points on 35 points, 15 assists, nine rebounds, a steal, a block, and the game-winning three-pointer.
He seems to be fully past the injury that cost him most of February, and he’ll continue to carry a large workload with Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein out on Thursday against Boston
Value
The Grizzlies host the Mavericks in a matchup stuffed with value plays. The Mavs-Grizz matchup has the highest over/under on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and it has several affordable players stepping into big roles. Memphis point guard Javon Small has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate since he’ll likely step in as the Grizzlies’ primary point guard.
With Ty Jerome doubtful and Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ja Morant out, Small should be very busy again on Thursday. He produced over 29 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and brings the potential for even more production since he puts up good numbers in multiple categories.
The second-round rookie out of West Virginia has averaged 12.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in 25.9 minutes per game since the All-Star Break in a wide variety of roles in the rotation. He should be heavily involved on Thursday, making him a great value to build around.
Fast Break
Cade Cunningham has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at point guard, but he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in four straight games. He still brings tons of upside, but his salary of over $11,000 means he’ll have to go off with a monster game to return value.
De’Aaron Fox has been outstanding for the Spurs in his last four games, averaging 23.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 41.8 DraftKings points. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at point guard in a good matchup against the Nuggets, and he could pick up even more work depending on the availability of Victor Wembanyama (ankle, questionable).
Nets point guard Ben Saraf could help carry the load for Brooklyn over the next few weeks with Egor Demin (foot) out. Nolan Traore (rest) and Michael Porter Jr. (ankle) are out on Thursday as well, leaving Saraf with lots of work coming his way. He had 10 points and six assists for 22.5 DraftKings points in 20 minutes on Tuesday, and he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position with a bargain salary under $4,000 and plenty of potential upside.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, Desmond Bane stands out as one of the best options at shooting guard, with the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections, along with a positive Plus/Minus projection.
Bane and the Magic are finishing a back-to-back, so keep an eye on their injury report. However, it’s still a good matchup for them since they are at home facing the Wizards defense, which just gave up 83 points to Bam Adebayo on Tuesday.
Bane probably doesn’t have that kind of game in him on Thursday, but he should be a strong option to build around as he continues to carry the load for Orlando, which is without Franz Wagner and Anthony Black. On Wednesday, Bane had 35 points, six boards, six assists, and 54.5 DraftKings points in a big win over Cleveland; he has 40+ DraftKings points in three straight contests coming into this smash spot.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Tre Johnson of the Wizards has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections. Even with Trae Young off the injury report and getting a few minutes, the rookie should continue to thrive in the Wizards’ backcourt.
Johnson has shown a very high ceiling in his rookie year out of Texas. He’s averaging 12.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game on the year, but in his 26 games since January 1, he is averaging 13.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 24.7 minutes per game.
He has 25+ DraftKings points in three straight and brings a high ceiling on Thursday, especially if Bub Carrington (hip, questionable) misses the contest. Kyshawn George is already out, leaving enough room for Johnson either way, but Carrington’s absence would raise his ceiling even higher.
Fast Break
The 76ers will be without Tyrese Maxey (finger), Joel Embiid (oblique), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (elbow) for Thursday’s game in Detroit. That leaves lots of heavy lifting for Quentin Grimes and Cameron Payne, who have very high ceilings even though they have a less-than-ideal matchup against the Pistons.
Cam Spencer has the highest projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in both sets of projections at his salary of just over $5,000. His role has fluctuated quite a bit from game to game, but if he can play through his own questionable tag due to a bad back, he could be an outstanding value option.
With the Nets missing so many options, Drake Powell emerges as a good bargain play with a salary of just $3,500. He had 10 points on Tuesday against Detroit and could fill a more involved role on Thursday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, the player with the highest ceiling and a positive Plus/Minus projection is Cooper Flagg. Flagg brings great flexibility with his point guard and small forward eligibility and can fit in multiple roster constructions.
Cooper Flagg missed some time with a mid-foot sprain but returned four games ago and stepped right back into a key role. He played 32 minutes and had 14 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, and 37.5 DraftKings points against the Hawks on Tuesday; he has over 42 DraftKings points in two of his four games since returning to the mix.
He should be in a great matchup against Memphis with a chance to showcase his upside as a centerpiece to build around both for the Mavs and your fantasy lineup.
Value
Going back to the Grizzlies, Rayan Rupert and Jaylen Wells should both be very involved as value plays at small forward on Thursday night. Rupert has the highest Plus/Minus projections of all small forwards on the slate and comes at an ultra-affordable $4,300.
Rupert signed a two-way contract, so he will eventually have to sit out some games this season, or his contract will have to be converted to a regular deal. He has been so productive, and the team is so short on wing options, however, that he’ll likely play against Flagg and the Mavs this Thursday.
Rayan Rupert dropped 20 points to go with eight rebounds for 38.5 DraftKings points on Monday against the Nets and had 14 more points and 19.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the 76ers. Keep an eye on the injury report for Memphis, but it looks likely that Rupert will be set up for enough work to produce great value returns on Thursday.
Fast Break
The only small forward with a higher ceiling projection than Flagg is Jaylen Brown, who could be extra fired up after Tuesday’s ejection. He’s in a tough matchup against the Thunder but could have a huge workload with Jayson Tatum (Achilles) and Derrick White (knee) questionable and Nikola Vucevic (finger) ruled out. Brown is averaging an impressive 46.3 DraftKings points per game this season and had over 44 DraftKings points in eight straight before his early exit Tuesday.
Suns wing Jalen Green has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and has a good matchup against the Pacers. He’s a strong mid-range play with good upside in that smash spot.
If you opt to go ultra-cheap at the position, Josh Minott of the Nets will likely have to play big minutes for Brooklyn; he had nine points in 21 minutes on Tuesday. Minott flashed upside during his time in Boston and will look to finish the season strong in Brooklyn to earn a spot on a roster next year.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jalen Johnson has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections, while Giannis Antetokounmpo takes the top spot in the ShotQuality projections. Both are excellent plays, but the risk of a blowout for the Hawks against the Nets makes me lean toward Giannis as the better pay-up option on this slate.
Antetokounmpo and the Bucks will face the Heat in Miami and look to pour some cold water on Bam Adebayo’s buzz in South Beach. Giannis has played four games since returning from injury, and even though he may not be at 100%, he always seems to light up the Heat.
He played 32 minutes on Tuesday, finishing with 22 points and 34 DraftKings points, but he was even more productive against the Jazz last Saturday, dropping 27 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and 57.2 DraftKings points in 27 minutes.
He’s an expensive play but brings immense upside as he works back to a full workload. The game should be more competitive than Johnson’s, especially if the Bucks also get Kevin Porter Jr. back from injury. Giannis brings a sky-high ceiling and makes sense to build around if you have found enough value plays in other spots.
Value
Rookie forward Danny Wolf has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in both sets of projections and the second-highest of any player on the slate, behind only Javon Small. Wolf has flashed a high ceiling and should carry a heavy workload with all the Nets out on Thursday.
Wolf has produced over 30 DraftKings points in each of his last two games, scoring 14 points against Memphis and 13 points against Detroit while adding strong non-scoring numbers as well.
He showed an even higher ceiling on March 1, when he went off for 46.75 DraftKings points against the Cavs. Wolf could be the focus of the offense for Brooklyn on Thursday, and he’ll definitely have a chance to make a major impact against Atlanta.
Fast Break
Magic forward Paolo Banchero is taking on the Wizards, and after what we saw from Bam on Tuesday, that alone makes him worth considering. Banchero has been carrying a big workload for Orlando lately and has scored 24+ points in five of his last six games.
GG Jackson and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are both among the leaders in Plus/Minus projections at power forward. Jackson has a higher ceiling, but Prosper has scored 11+ points in four straight and six of his last seven games as a key contributor who is developing into an important option for Memphis going forward.
The Heat have started Myron Gardner the last three games due to all their injuries, and Gardner has turned in good enough non-scoring stats to be a solid bargain play at just over $4,000. He had 22 DraftKings points in 26 minutes on Tuesday. Kel’el Ware (shoulder) is questionable, but if he’s out again, Gardner should get plenty of time once again, filling in for Andrew Wiggins (toe, out) and Ware.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
In one of the juiciest matchups of the night, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama will go head-to-head… or will they? Wemby is questionable, and Jokic is playing for the second night in a row, so it isn’t entirely certain if we’ll get the marquee matchup. In the current projections, Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at center and on the whole slate in both sets of projections. Whether Wemby plays or not, Jokic should be in a place to carry a heavy enough workload to bring elite upside if you have the salary to afford his $12,500.
Jokic has posted three triple-doubles in his last four games and is coming off 64.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes in a rout of the Rockets on Wednesday. He had a 32-point triple-double on Monday against OKC that earned him 75.5 DraftKings points.
He’s had over 64 DraftKings points in six of his last nine games, often making him a great value even at his sky-high salary. If you can find the savings in other spots and spend up at center, he should be a high-end option whether he has to deal with Wemby or not on Thursday.
Value
Danny Wolf and Olivier-Maxence Prosper (see above) have the top two Plus/Minus projections at center on Thursday’s slate, but third behind them in both sets of projections is Marvin Bagley III, who has stepped into a meaningful role for the Mavericks since arriving at the trade deadline.
He has at least 23 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and is in a great spot against the thin front line of the Grizzlies. He showed his multi-category potential with seven points, six rebounds, and six assists in 21 minutes on Tuesday; that style of play gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling at his salary of just over $4,000.
Fast Break
Heat center Bam Adebayo scored 83 points on Tuesday (maybe you heard?), but can he keep it rolling against Milwaukee? He ended up with an amazing 107.75 DraftKings points in his historic performance, but in a different matchup and game flow, he’s a solid but not spectacular play this Thursday.
Pistons center Jalen Duren should have a favorable matchup against the banged-up Sixers front line. He has over 40 DraftKings points in seven of his last 10 games, including 42 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Nets.
Without Joel Embiid, Adem Bona, Andre Drummond, and Dominick Barlow have been carrying the load at center for Philly. With Bona questionable, it could be an interesting revenge spot for Drummond against Detroit. Barlow and Trendon Watford would also likely absorb some center minutes in small-ball lineups.
Pictured: Desmond Bane
Photo Credit: Imagn
