The NBA Playoffs continue Thursday with another trifecta of fun matchups. All three games are Game 6 in their series, so the Knicks, Celtics and Timberwolves will be looking to close things out. The Hawks, 76ers and Nuggets will need to win to force a decisive Game 7. The action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Jalen Brunson has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard, and he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position. He’s an expensive option to build around but brings a very high ceiling and should return solid value, according to the models.
In the pivotal Game 5 in this series at Madison Square Garden, Brunson went off with 39 points, eight assists, and 55.75 DraftKings points. He has at least 42 DraftKings points in three of the five games in the series, but Game 5 was by far his best showing.
Brunson will have to carry a heavy workload again for the Knicks as they try to close out the pesky Hawks in Atlanta on Thursday night, and he’s proven he can rise to the challenge and deliver huge games in crunch time.
Value
With multiple pieces missing in Minnesota, Ayo Dosunmu has been asked to step into a huge role, and he has the highest Plus/Minus projection and Pts/Sal of any player on the entire slate.
Dosunmu will continue to fill in with Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) and Anthony Edwards (knee) out on Thursday night, and he has proven he can help carry the load and produce in multiple categories when given the chance to step up in the past. The 26-year-old was acquired in a midseason trade and made nine starts down the stretch for the Timberwolves in the regular season, stepping up in place of Edwards while he was dealing with a separate injury.
In Game 3, Dosunmu delivered 25 points, nine assists and 41.2 DraftKings points. In Game 4, he had a massive 43 points and 53.5 DraftKings points, and even in their Game 5 loss, Dosunmu still had a solid 18 points and 30.2 DraftKings points. He’ll have a large workload again in Game 6 as the Wolves look to close out the series without having to go back to Denver for a Game 7. Of the three potential closeout teams, they are the only squad playing at home this Thursday.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray is the only point guard with higher median, ceiling and floor projections than Brunson. He is more expensive, though, which is why Brunson’s value numbers are stronger. Murray has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of the five games in this series, with 45+ DraftKings points in each of those four games.
Throughout this series with the Sixers, Derrick White has been a disappointment for the Celtics, falling short of his salary-based expectations in each game and scoring 11 points or fewer in each contest. However, he is a proven playoff producer, and the Celtics could use a bounce-back performance from White in Game 6. His salary has dropped so low that he’ll be a good bargain leverage play if he can turn things around.
For a bargain play at point guard, Mike Conley has the best Plus/Minus projection of the options under $6,000. He had 16.235 DraftKings points in Game 4 at home and chipped in 10.75 DraftKings points in Game 5. He isn’t the elite producer he was in his prime, but the injuries in Minnesota’s backcourt have opened a role for him off the bench.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. The ShotQuality projections are high on Hawks guard CJ McCollum, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both guard spots.
McCollum was outstanding in Game 2 with 51.25 DraftKings points, but struggled to only 13.25 DraftKings points in Game 5. Back at home for Game 6, he’ll need to shake off his 3-for-10 shooting performance and put together a stronger stat line. His ceiling is extremely high, so he’s worth a look for fantasy, but he’s also very volatile from game to game.
McCollum comes in at under $7,000, which makes him potentially a great value if he can get back in the groove he had earlier in the series.
Value
In both sets of projections, Josh Hart has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard behind only Dosunmu and McCollum. He hasn’t been as consistent as the elite players at the position, but he does always find a way to chip in and has a history of coming up big in the clutch.
Hart had nine points and 21.25 DraftKings points in Game 5 after coming up just one rebound short of a double-double in Game 4 with 29.25 DraftKings points on 10 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals.
If this game stays close throughout and Hart plays big minutes, he has big potential, as he showed with over 40 DraftKings points and a double-double in Game 1 and Game 2.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections at shooting guard, but he is extremely expensive and has only reached his salary-based expectations in one of the five games in this series. He definitely has the potential to go off, but he’s higher risk given his salary.
On the other side of that matchup, VJ Edgecombe has had a great series and posted a huge 53-DraftKings-point performance in Game 2. He has been a little quieter with lower usage since then — which makes sense with Joel Embiid returning to the lineup — but he still is getting plenty of minutes and opportunities.
For cheap options at shooting guard, both Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. have been playing big minutes for Denver, with Brown the slightly better value since his salary is under $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In the ShotQuality projections, Dyson Daniels has the highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward, and he ranks in the top five in ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward in both projection sets. He has an especially high floor projection in both sets of projections since he typically plays big minutes in the Hawks’ current rotation.
His offensive role has fluctuated throughout the series, but he had a series-high 17 points in Game 5 while McCollum was struggling. He finished with 28 DraftKings points, and he has at least that many DraftKings points in four of the five games in this series, highlighted by 39.25 DraftKings points in Game 3, which the Hawks won at home.
If Atlanta extends their season, Daniels will need to be a key contributor, and when he’s at his best, he turns in good rebounds, assists and steals to support his scoring, which is why he is a safer play than the other top names at small forward.
Value
Aside from Hart and Daniels, the only other small forward with a positive Plus/Minus projection on Thursday night is Jaden McDaniels of the Timberwolves. Without Edwards and DiVincenzo, the Timberwolves have had to adjust their rotation, and McDaniels should get a chance to help carry the load. He’s seen one of the largest usage bumps on the team with Edwards and DiVincenzo off the floor this season.
In Game 4, McDaniels showed his upside with a double-double of 20 points, 10 rebounds and 43 DraftKings points. He only had 13 points and 18.25 DraftKings points in a disappointing Game 5, but he has the potential to step up alongside Dosunmu to help push the Timberwolves into the next round.
Throughout his career, McDaniels has flashed a high ceiling and plenty of upside, and Minnesota will need a big game from him Thursday.
Fast Break
Hawks forward Jonathan Kuminga has the highest ceiling among small forwards under $6,000 in the ShotQuality projections. He has scored double-digit points in four straight games for Atlanta, with two games over 30 DraftKings points in Game 2 and Game 3. If he gets to that level again in Game 6, he’ll be an excellent value option.
Sam Hauser has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the small forwards under $4,000 and can contribute streaky scoring if he gets hot from long range. He had 12 points and 27.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 of the series, but has been held under 20 DraftKings points in the last four games.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In both sets of projections, Jayson Tatum has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position, even though his salary is over $9,000.
Tatum’s return from last season’s playoff injury is remarkable, and he has been excellent in this series. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four of the five games, averaging 53.4 DraftKings points in 37.8 minutes per game for an elite production rate of 1.42 DraftKings points per minute.
He had a double-double and over 55 DraftKings points in each of the last two games, and he has re-established himself as the clear leader of the Celtics’ offense, even with Brown also playing a large role. If the Celtics want to avoid a Game 7 back in Boston on Saturday, Tatum will need a big game in Philly on Thursday.
Value
In the FatnasyLabs projections, Naz Reid has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward, and he’s another member of the Timberwolves who has a chance to step up with Edwards and DiVincenzo down.
Reid had 17 points, nine rebounds and 34.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 to help secure the win, but he played fewer minutes and only had 12 points and eight rebounds for 23 DraftKings points in Game 5. Back at home with a chance for a close-out game, look for Reid to be fired up and bring the potential of a low-grade double-double, which would make him a strong value play at this position.
Fast Break
Jalen Johnson is the other superstar at power forward to consider. Johnson had 56 DraftKings points in Game 3 with a double-double of 24 points and 10 rebounds, and he posted another double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds in Game 5, finishing with 44 DraftKings points. He has an extremely high ceiling, but he hasn’t been quite as consistent as Tatum.
OG Anunoby has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and has back-to-back big double-doubles to help the Knicks take the lead in this series. He had 42.5 and 39.5 DraftKings points in those two wins, and he is an excellent mid-priced play once again in Game 6.
For the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon (calf) is questionable for Game 6 after missing Games 3 and 5. His absence opens the door for Spencer Jones, and Jones had 20 points and 38.75 DraftKings points in Game 5. Whether Gordon tries to play through the issue or sits out, Jones will likely get enough time to have boom-or-bust value potential for his bargain salary of only $4,100.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
As he typically does, Nikola Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate and is the most expensive play by a wide margin. On Thursday, his salary is $12,700, meaning he’d have to most a huge game to be a value.
He has had three games in this series that definitely qualify. He had 62.75 DraftKings points in Game 1, 63.75 DraftKings points in Game 4, and his best game of the series in Game 5, finishing with 73.5 DraftKings points when facing elimination.
Jokic had 27 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds in that masterful Game 5 performance, and he’ll need to step up again on Thursday as the Nuggets try to force a Game 7. Even his “down” games have resulted in 54+ DraftKings points in every game in the series, so the Joker is definitely a strong consideration if you can make the rest of your roster work around his hefty salary cap hit.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Rudy Gobert has the highest Plus/Minus projection at center in the FantasyLabs projections.
Gobert played under 30 minutes in two games in the series, finishing below salary-based expectations in those two games. He’s logged 30+ minutes in the other three games, and he has produced 32+ DraftKings points in each of them. If this game in Minnesota stays close and he can avoid foul trouble, he should turn in enough multi-category production to be a solid value at just over $6,000.
He probably won’t go off, but if you are building around other stars and need a solid mid-range option at center, Gobert is a strong option to consider.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid had a vintage performance with 33 points and 50.5 DraftKings points in 39 minutes in Game 5 to force Game 6 back in Philly. He has been excellent for fantasy purposes in both games he has played in this series, and he makes sense as an option between Gobert’s and Jokic’s salary if that fits best with the rest of your roster.
Another option if you don’t quite trust Embiid is Karl-Anthony Towns, who has over 50 DraftKings points in three straight games. He had a triple-double and 55.5 DraftKings points in the last game in Atlanta, and he’ll try to team up with Brunson to end the series back in Atlanta on Thursday.
Neemias Queta is the best play under $5K at center, and he had a series-high 14 rebounds to post 27 DraftKings points in Game 5. With Embiid in action and Queta the Celtics’ best defensive option against him, Queta has come very close to a double-double in the last two games, giving him good upside on Thursday.
Pictured: Jalen Brunson
Photo Credit: Imagn
