Sunday features a two-game main slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Pistons have picked up back-to-back wins, setting up a decisive Game 7 in Detroit. They’re listed as 8.5-point favorites, so they’re expected to complete the comeback.
The Pistons have relied heavily on Cade Cunningham all season, and that hasn’t changed in the playoffs. If anything, Cunningham has had to carry a heavier burden than he did during the regular season. His usage rate is up to 36.1% vs. the Raptors after sitting at 30.5% throughout the year.
Cunningham has been massive in the Pistons’ past two wins. He had 45 points and 59.0 DraftKings points in Game 5, and he followed that up with 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 59.25 DraftKings points in Game 6. Cunningham has logged at least 42 minutes in both contests, and he figures to command another heavy workload on Sunday. He’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at point guard.
Cunningham ultimately leads the position in ceiling projection by a comfortable margin. He does have the largest salary on the slate, but there’s no denying his upside.
Value
The Raptors have been without Immanuel Quickley all playoffs, and Brandon Ingram missed their last game. He’s officially questionable for Game 7, and if he’s unable to return, it’s going to open up some additional minutes and opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Jamal Shead didn’t exactly take advantage of that opportunity in Game 6. He finished with just 19.25 DraftKings points, and he knocked down just two of nine shots from the field.
However, Shead did play more than 33 minutes in that outing, which bodes well for his prospects if Ingram is sidelined again. He had 34.25 DraftKings points with a comparable workload the game prior, and he averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with Quickley and Ingram off the floor during the regular season. If he can get back to 33-plus minutes Sunday, he’s in a good position to return value.
Fast Break
James Harden has been an inconsistent playoff performer throughout his career, but he’s had a solid series vs. the Raptors. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games, including two straight. He fell one rebound and one assist shy of a triple-double in Game 6, and he’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s second at the position in ceiling projection, and he’s available at a sizable discount compared to Cunningham.
Franz Wagner remains out for the Magic, which means Jalen Suggs is going to have to help pick up the slack. He got up to 38.2 minutes in Game 6, though he responded with just 26.25 DraftKings points. Still, that much playing time should lead to good things for Suggs. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with Wagner off the floor this season, making him a nice bounce-back target.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane is another player who should benefit from the absence of Wagner. Like with Suggs, that wasn’t exactly felt in Game 6. Bane finished with just 27.25 DraftKings points, his third straight game with a negative Plus/Minus.
However, Bane has seen the second-largest usage bump on the team with Wagner off the floor this season. He averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he played just under 38 minutes in Game 6. He could play even more in a potential elimination contest, giving him solid upside at just $7,000.
Value
Anthony Black was the only player on the Magic with a larger usage bump than Bane sans Wagner during the regular season. He saw a +1.3% bump in that split, and he averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
Like the rest of his teammates, Black was a disappointment in Game 6. That tends to happen when you score just 79 points as a team. However, he did play 33.5 minutes off the bench. He had 36.25 DraftKings points in 39.1 minutes in Game 5, so he has the potential for a much bigger performance in Game 7.
Fast Break
Ja’Kobe Walter might be the Raptors’ best value option if Ingram is out again. He played 43 minutes and finished with 40.25 DraftKings points in Game 6 after notching 37.25 DraftKings points in Game 5. Walter wasn’t quite as productive as Shead with Ingram and Quickley off the floor during the regular season (0.90 DraftKings points per minute), but he’s playing better basketball at the moment. He has eligibility at both backcourt spots and stands out as one of the better values on the slate.
Donovan Mitchell continues to struggle in this matchup. He’s averaged just 23.3 points per game vs. the Raptors, and he’s shot just 43.7% from the field and 35.3% from 3-point range. Mitchell’s postseason numbers are much stronger for his career, so perhaps he’s due for some positive regression. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, but he did start the series with two games of at least 45.75 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
R.J. Barrett continues to play some of the best basketball of his career. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s had at least 41.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four. That includes his most recent contest. He posted a 30.7% usage rate in that outing, which was his second-highest mark of the series.
Barrett has proven that he has value regardless of Ingram’s status. However, if Ingram is ruled out again, he has a higher ceiling. He managed 41.25 DraftKings points sans Ingram in Game 6 despite shooting just 8-for-21 from the field and 4-for-12 from 3-point range. His price tag has climbed to $7,700, but he stands out as the clear top choice if paying up at the position.
Value
Outside of Barrett, the rest of the SF position is pretty weak. Only two players are priced above $4,300: Barrett and Ausar Thompson. Both guys should command heavy ownership, and it’s hard to imagine building too many lineups without one of those guys at the position.
Thompson gets his fantasy points in a completely different way than Barrett. Scoring is the least impressive area of his game. He’s had just 10 points total over his past two outings, yet he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He had 45.25 DraftKings points in Game 5 and followed that up with 35.5 DraftKings points in Game 6.
Thompson makes his money by racking up stats in the peripheral categories. He’s had double-digit boards and six assists in back-to-back contests. He’s also a major threat in terms of blocks and steals, so anything he does as a scorer is simply the cherry on top. Thompson has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is tied with Barrett for the best mark at the position. He ultimately has a lower ceiling than Barrett, but he is available at a discount.
Fast Break
Max Strus is probably the next best option at small forward. However, he has not provided much in this series. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including three straight. Strus did at least get to 30.0 DraftKings points in the lone exception, so he at least has some upside for his price tag.
Jamal Cain has started the past two games for Orlando, though that hasn’t led to much production. He’s scored 15.0 and 11.0 DraftKings points in those outings, and he saw just 20.2 minutes in Game 6. He doesn’t provide much of a ceiling, but he should at least see a solid chunk of minutes.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Power forward is probably the strongest position on this slate. It has two clear studs at the top, but Scottie Barnes stands out as the superior option. Like Barrett, he has been phenomenal for the Raptors in this series. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s gone for 60-plus DraftKings points in two of them.
Barnes saw a big uptick in responsibilities with Ingram sidelined for Game 6. He played just under 48 minutes in the overtime win, and he responded with 66.75 DraftKings points. He should be locked into 40-plus minutes once again in Game 7, and he’s averaged an elite 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with Ingram and Quickley off the floor. Barnes ultimately has a comparable ceiling to Cunningham, and he does it at a cheaper price tag.
Value
The Pistons have been desperate for offense outside of Cunningham, and Tobias Harris has been their most consistent No. 2 scorer. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all six games vs. the Magic, and he’s had at least 37.0 DraftKings points in four of the past five.
Harris has also seen an uptick in aggressiveness of late. He has a usage rate of at least 29.7% in back-to-back games, and he got to double-digit rebounds in his last contest. That was good enough to overcome a subpar 7-for-20 shooting performance.
Harris’ price tag has steadily crept up throughout this series, but he remains one of the safer value targets in the frontcourt.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero is the other stud option to consider at PF, and he’s certainly capable of going off. He’s scored 64.5 and 70.25 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in the other two. He has a wider range of outcomes than the other studs on this slate, primarily due to his inconsistent shooting. Banchero was just 4-for-20 from the field in Game 6, and he’ll need to be better if the Magic are going to advance past the Pistons.
Dean Wade is another low-ceiling type of player, but he did post a positive Plus/Minus across 28.1 minutes in Game 6. His playing time has increased as the series has progressed, so he could be a cheap source of minutes Sunday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Evan Mobley is the top center on this slate by default. He has not made the leap that many were anticipating this season; if anything, his numbers this year are slightly worse.
However, Mobley is still capable of putting up fantasy points. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Sunday’s centers. He’s also put together two consecutive good games. Mobley had 45.25 DraftKings points in Game 5, and he followed that up with 51.5 DraftKings points in the overtime loss in Game 6. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.
He owns the top ceiling projection by a pretty wide margin at center, and he might not command as much ownership as the other studs on this slate.
Value
Collin Murray-Boyles bounced back from a disappointing showing in Game 5 with an excellent outing in Game 6. He played nearly 40 minutes, his top mark of the series, and he finished with 36.75 DraftKings points. It was his fifth game with a positive Plus/Minus in the first round.
Murray-Boyles has thrived on efficiency more than volume for most of the playoffs, so the fact that he got to 40 minutes in Game 6 is extremely encouraging. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so if he sees a comparable workload in Game 7, he has the potential to be one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
Wendell Carter Jr. is coming off just 15.5 DraftKings points in Game 6, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. However, he scored at least 36.75 DraftKings points in three of his first four outings vs. the Pistons. His salary has stayed pretty stagnant overall, and he has some upside at $5,800.
It might be time to cut bait on Jalen Duren. He was dismal once again in Game 6, finishing with 19.75 DraftKings points in 32.2 minutes. He looks like a shell of the player he was during the regular season. Still, his salary continues to plummet, and he’s down to just $6,700 for Game 7. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.61 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), so maybe he can turn things around.
Pictured: Cade Cunningham (left) and Scottie Barnes (right)
Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski, Imagn
