The NBA playoffs continue this Monday with a pair of Game 4 matchups. Since the teams continue to alternate game days and days off, it’s the same two matchups we had on Saturday. The Celtics and Warriors are each trying to even their series at 2-2 with big wins, while the Knicks and Timberwolves will be looking to extend their series lead to 3-1. The contests begin at 7:30 p.m. ET, and it should be another great night for fantasy basketball!
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
At point guard, Jalen Brunson has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection, and he also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Brunson has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his nine playoff games and continues to be the clear focus of the Knicks’ offense.
In Game 3, Brunson had 27 points, seven assists, and 44 DraftKings points. He has at least that many DraftKings points in seven of his nine games in the playoffs and is averaging 47.2 DraftKings points in 40.0 minutes per game while leading the team with a 33.2% usage rate.
Brunson and the Knicks have a chance to go up 3-1 with a win at home, and Brunson usually rises to the occasion when the team needs him most. Madison Square Garden will be rocking on Monday night, and the Brunson burner will look to get fired up with a huge game like he has regularly delivered during the postseason.
Value
Celtics guard Derrick White has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and has been one of the Celtics’ most consistent contributors throughout the postseason.
He started the series with 42.75 and 44.25 fantasy points in the two losses in Boston, turning in good production in assists, rebounds, and blocks to make up for some shaky three-point shooting. He had 17 points, five rebounds, two assists, and 31.75 DraftKings points in Game 3 but played only 34 minutes after playing 44 and 40 minutes in the first two games, which were closer down the stretch.
If Game 4 is close throughout, White’s workload will likely increase again, and he’ll be one of the best per-dollar point guards on the board. He brings a high ceiling with his playoff pedigree and almost always posts strong non-scoring numbers, which give him both a high ceiling and a high floor.
Fast Break
Since the Warriors still won’t have Stephen Curry (hamstring), Brandin Podziemski has a much higher ceiling. However, he struggled in Game 3, going just 1-for-10 from the field for 20 DraftKings points. He was much better in Game 2 with 11 points, six boards, six assists, two steals, and 31 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. In the 10 games that he played during the regular season with Curry out, Podziemski averaged 32.1 DraftKings points per game.
Neither Mike Conley nor Donte DiVincenzo has had a great series for Minnesota on the other side of that Western Conference matchup, but Conley has been the better fantasy option since he’s cheaper and has a more secure role as the starter. Conley had 19 DraftKings points in 28 minutes in Game 3 and also had two games with over 20 DraftKings points against the Lakers. He isn’t getting much volume but can produce enough points and assists to be a bargain value to consider.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs has been our partnership with ShotQuality. In both the ShotQuality and FantasyLabs projections, Anthony Edwards has the highest floor, median, and ceiling projections at shooting guard. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both projections.
Edwards has produced over 47 DraftKings points in each of his last six playoff games. He had 36 points, four rebounds, and four assists in 44 minutes in Game 3. He’s carrying the Timberwolves on offense right now and has been turning in strong non-scoring numbers as well.
Without Steph, Edwards can get his team a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Monday night, so look for him to again be aggressive and look to post another big game.
Value
In both sets of projections, Buddy Hield has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard. He has come up huge for the Warriors in the last four games, helping eliminate the Rockets with his big Game 7 and staying very involved and productive against the Wolves.
Hield has made at least four three-pointers in four straight games, producing over 32 DraftKings points in three of those four contests. He showed an extremely high ceiling with 33 points and 51.75 DraftKings in Game 7 against Houston and followed that up with 24 points and 43 DraftKings points in Game 1.
Even though his salary has bumped up a bit, he’s still a strong value play to consider. His eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward makes him a versatile piece that fits in many roster builds.
Fast Break
In both projections, Jaylen Brown has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all shooting guards and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus as well. He had 38 DraftKings points in Game 3 and has 35+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He went off for a monster game against the Magic when Tatum was out, but for the rest of the playoffs has been solid but not spectacular.
In Game 3, Payton Pritchard broke out with 23 points and 35.5 DraftKings points. He can be boom-or-bust in his role off the bench and had a quiet playoffs before Saturday’s big game. He’s still very affordable under $5,000 but brings a lot of production potential on Monday.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On the entire slate, Jayson Tatum has the highest floor, median, and ceiling projections. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in the ShotQuality projections.
Tatum has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games since returning from a wrist injury that caused him to miss a game in the first round. He had a pair of double-doubles to open the series in Boston with 59 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 46.5 DraftKings points in Game 2. In Game 3, he posted a well-balanced stat line of 22 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists on his way to 48.75 DraftKings points.
He still hasn’t quite found his shot against the Knicks, but he continues to turn in excellent fantasy numbers on a regular basis with good non-scoring numbers and plenty of scoring chances as the focus of the Celtics’ offense.
Value
Mikal Bridges is in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus, median and ceiling projection at small forward on Monday. He isn’t a bargain play but brings good value at his mid-range price point.
Bridges had 35+ DraftKings points in three straight and had exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight before struggling in Game 3. He finished with 12 points and just 21.75 DraftKings points but still played 38 minutes.
Like most of the Knicks’ core, he’s playing big minutes in this series and continues to bring good fantasy upside as a result. He has been clutch in this series, and the Knicks will need him to step up and deliver again on Monday.
Fast Break
Josh Hart is a little more expensive than Bridges but also ranks in the top five at small forward in Projected Plus/Minus and both median and ceiling projections. Hart produced 34+ DraftKings points in six straight games before finishing with only 25.5 DraftKings points in Game 3. He costs a little more than Bridges but brings a little more non-scoring production, even though Bridges seems more likely to go off and score a ton of points.
The other series hasn’t had a ton of small forward production, but Jaden McDaniels has had several big games in the postseason and chipped in 16 and 15 points in Minnesota’s two wins to finish with 30.5 DraftKings points in each contest.
Off the bench, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has flashed a high ceiling off the bench with 20 points and 30.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 but only had 1.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 8.0 DraftKings points in Game 3.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
At power forward, only Tatum has a higher median, ceiling, and floor projection than Jimmy Butler. Butler also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the ShotQuality projections and the third-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Butler went off in Game 3, pouring in 33 points, seven rebounds, seven assists, and 51.25 DraftKings points in the Warriors’ five-point home loss. He may continue to engage “Playoff Jimmy” mode without Curry available. He has over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and brings a sky-high ceiling as he tries to keep his team out of a 3-1 deficit.
While Tatum has more help around him and others who could step up, Butler has to be the man for the Warriors, which is usually when he steps up and turns in a monster performance.
Value
Without Curry, the Warriors have given Jonathan Kuminga a much bigger role in the last two games. Kuminga responded with two strong games and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections on Monday.
In Game 2, Kuminga had 18 points, five rebounds, and 25.25 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. He was even better in Game 3, scoring 30 points on his way to 46.5 DraftKings points.
As long as he continues to help soak up Curry’s usage and playing time, Kuminga has a very high ceiling. His salary jumped from $4,200 to $5,200, but he still brings a high enough ceiling to be worth considering at power forward.
Fast Break
After scoring 29 points in Game 1, OG Anunoby had just five points and 21.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. He continued to struggle in Game 3 and managed just two points and two rebounds for 5.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. He’s very boom-or-bust but still brings upside if he has a bounce-back game.
The projections don’t love Julius Randle at his price point, even though he had a huge triple-double in Game 3. Randle ended up with 63.5 DraftKings points on 24 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds in 40 minutes and has over 50 DraftKings points in each of the last two games for the Timberwolves. However, both sets of projections have him ranked very low in Projected Plus/Minus and anticipate some regression after those two big games.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Both sets of projections are high on Karl-Anthony Towns, giving him the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at center on this two-game slate. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections.
He scored 21 points in each of the last two games in this series, earning 45.25 DraftKings points in 35 minutes in Game 2 and 41.25 DraftKings points in 36 minutes in Game 3. He also had a double-double in Game 1 and has posted at least 10 points and 10 boards in each of his last five playoff games.
He wasn’t very efficient in Game 3, but he continues to be a key part of the Knicks’ game plan and brings plenty of offensive upside on Monday night.
Value
The Celtics have relied more on Al Horford than Kristaps Porzingis in this series. Horford has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest at the position in the ShotQuality projections.
Horford had 15 points, nine boards, and 33.25 DraftKings points in Game 3 while making his second start of the series. The veteran makes a good value play at center since he’s typically very involved on the defensive end and can have productive scoring streaks as well.
Porzingis had to leave Game 1 with an illness, played 14 minutes in Game 2, and only 19 minutes in Game 3. If he’s 100%, he has a great ceiling from his salary of just $4,800, but if he remains limited, he also has a very low floor.
Fast Break
More Kuminga in the last few games has meant a reduced role for Draymond Green. He had a great fantasy performance in Game 1, earning 41 DraftKings points on 18 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and two steals in 35 minutes. In Game 2, he played fewer minutes but still produced nine points, four rebounds, and five assists. In Game 3, he only managed two points and 12 DraftKings points. He’s a better fit next to Steph, but he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in the ShotQuality projections.
In both sets of projections, Naz Reid has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center. He had 30.25 and 25.75 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series but played fewer minutes in Game 3, producing 16.25 DraftKings points. Rudy Gobert had four blocks to go with nine points and 13 rebounds for 32.75 DraftKings points in Game 3, and he again brings boom-or-bust upside depending on the game flow of Game 4.
Interested in more NBA action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.
