NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Jan. 30): Joel Embiid is on a Mission

Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Russell Westbrook has had a relatively quiet season for the Lakers. He’s played just 28.6 minutes per game – the lowest mark of his career – but he’s still been an excellent fantasy producer when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is the seventh-highest mark among Monday’s guards.

Westbrook is going to have to take on a larger role Monday given the team’s current injury situation. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have both been ruled out, and they’ve been the team’s top two options from a usage perspective. Westbrook has unsurprisingly seen a +6.6% usage bump with both players off the floor this season, and he’s averaged just under 40 DraftKings points in three full games without both players. That vaults him into stud territory on Monday’s slate.

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Value

Dennis Schroder is another player who can be counted out for the Lakers with Davis and LeBron sidelined. He’s seen the largest usage bump with both players off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario. He’s been even more productive in four full games without both players, averaging 35.44 DraftKings points in 32.9 minutes per game. Westbrook did miss one of those contests, but Schroder should be one of the team’s top offensive options against the Nets.

Schroder is viable across the industry, but he’s an elite value option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

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Fast Break

Luka Doncic is questionable after missing the Mavericks’ last game, but he’s clearly worth some stud consideration if he’s able to suit up. He’s been priced down to $12,000 on FanDuel, and while that would be exorbitant for most players, it’s pretty reasonable for Doncic. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.91 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), and he draws an outstanding matchup vs. the Pistons. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 119.0 represents a sizable increase from their season average (112.4).

Kyrie Irving is another stud option to consider. The Nets own a strong matchup vs. the Lakers, who rank second in pace and tied for 20th in defensive efficiency, and Irving has taken on a larger burden with Kevin Durant sidelined. He’s scored at least 49.4 FanDuel points in six straight games, and he’s had at least 58.9 FanDuel points in four of them.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Timberwolves are still playing without Karl-Anthony Towns, and D’Angelo Russell has done a good job of picking up the slack recently. He’s scored at least 35.75 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he’s had at least 40.5 DraftKings points in four of them.

His price has stayed pretty stagnant over that time frame, and he remains priced at an affordable $7,000 for Monday’s matchup vs. the Kings. Sacramento is about as good as it gets from a matchup perspective, ranking fifth in pace and tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency. The total on this game sits at an excellent 237.5 points, while the Timberwolves are implied for a healthy 118.0 points.

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Value

Alec Burks has started each of the past two games for the Pistons, and he’s played at least 27.4 minutes in both. Burks has been excellent when on the floor this season, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes. He’s projected for another 27 minutes in our NBA Models, making him an appealing value option across the industry.

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Fast Break

Trae Young is currently questionable with ankle injury, and his absence would make Dejounte Murray an elite DFS option. Murray has increased his usage rate by +2.8% and his assist rate by +8.6% with Young off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. In four full games without Young, Murray has averaged 44.25 DraftKings points per game.

Aaron Wiggins stands out as one of the better value options at the position. He’s coming off more than 30 minutes in his last contest, and he’s averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. With Lu Dort still sidelined, Wiggins’ spot in the rotation should be pretty safe.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The frontcourt is significantly weaker than the backcourt on Monday. There are only three forwards priced above $7,600 on DraftKings, but there are 14 guards that fit that description.

Anthony Edwards is the most expensive of the bunch at $9,400, but he’s been worth every penny recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s gone for at least 52.0 DraftKings points in four of them. That includes a matchup vs. the Kings on Saturday, where he finished with 62.5 DraftKings points in 37.6 minutes. Overall, Edwards has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he brings a similar ceiling to the table for Monday’s rematch.

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Value

Even if Doncic returns to the lineup, there should still be plenty of minutes available for Dorian Finney-Smith. Christian Wood remains out with a thumb injury, and DFS has been excellent over his past two games. He’s played at least 34.6 minutes in both, and he’s responded with 34.75 and 42.0 DraftKings points. Finney-Smith is not typically a strong per-minute option, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume on Monday.

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Fast Break

Klay Thompson had an uncharacteristic start to the season. He struggled to find his shot, despite being one of the greatest shooters in league history. However, he has slowly improved as the year has progressed, increasing his scoring output in each successive month. He’s up to 26.9 points per game in January, and he’s shot 45.7% from the field and 43.1% from 3-point range in his past nine contests. Those marks are much more in line with his career norms, and Thompson has scored at least 34.5 DKFP in eight of his past 10 games. He has plenty of upside in what is expected to be a high-paced contest vs. the Thunder, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 123.75 is tied for the top mark on the slate.

Tim Hardaway Jr. is another potential option for the Mavericks, especially on FanDuel at just $5,300. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Kyle Kuzma has been an excellent value for DFS players of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.74 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 48.0 FanDuel points in three of them. He was surprisingly quiet in his last contest, posting a usage rate of just 16.4%, but he posted an average usage rate of 32.1% over his previous eight games. He should return to a more normal number on Monday, and his $8,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

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Value

Rui Hachimura was acquired by the Lakers recently, and he’s made an impact in his first two games with his new squad. He racked up 23.5 DraftKings points in 21.5 minutes in his first outing, and he saw 23.7 minutes in his second. He wasn’t quite as impressive in his second contest – he finished with just 12.5 DraftKings points – but he should see a sizable spike in playing time with Davis and LeBron sidelined on Monday.

Hachimura has been a solid producer this season, averaging 0.88 DKFP per minute in his time with the Wizards and Lakers, so he should be able to take advantage of a few extra minutes. He’s played at least 26 minutes in 10 contests this season, and he’s averaged 28.33 DKFP in those outings. We’ll gladly take that kind of production at $4,100.

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Fast Break

Precious Achiuwa should continue to start for the Raptors in place of OG Anunoby. He thrived in that role on Saturday, finishing with 49.6 FanDuel points in 33.4 minutes. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but Achiuwa has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for more than 35 minutes in our NBA Models, so that gives him a great chance to return value.

Jeremy Sochan has started to come into his own for the Spurs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, including 47.5 DraftKings points in his last contest. He racked up a 31.3% usage rate in that contest, so he’s taken on a larger offensive role in recent games as well.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Joel Embiid is coming off a monster performance on Saturday. He went head-to-head with back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic, and Embiid was clearly looking to prove a point. He finished with 47 points, 18 boards, five assists, three steals, and two blocked shots, resulting in 87.5 DraftKings points. Embiid has been very vocal about wanting to win the MVP previously, and he put himself squarely in the discussion with Saturday’s outing.

Embiid is currently questionable with a foot injury, but as long as he’s in the lineup, he provides an elite ceiling vs. the Magic. Orlando has actually been pretty good at defending the paint this season, which is not surprising since they play seemingly nine centers at the same time. Seriously, if you’re over 7’0” and are willing to live in Florida, the Magic will probably give you a 10-day contract. Regardless, Embiid has averaged 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and none of Orlando’s many centers is a match for his combination of size and athleticism.

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Value

Sorry for the Lakers-heavy writeup, but they are clearly the best value on the slate. Any time your team is missing two guys with a usage rate of at least 28.5%, you’re going to be a valuable DFS target.

Thomas Bryant saw a nice spike in production while Davis was sidelined earlier this season. He averaged 27.1 minutes in 22 games without Davis and responded with an average of 29.89 DKFP per game. Ultimately, he might be the best pure value on the entire slate.

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Fast Break

Dwight Powell should continue to start in place of Wood in Dallas. He wasn’t particularly good in that role on Saturday, finishing with just 15.25 DraftKings points in 22.5 minutes, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in his four previous games. His matchup vs. the Pistons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.41, and his $4,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Zach Collins has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.31 on DraftKings. Collins has earned more playing time in San Antonio recently, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s another strong value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.