NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Dec. 12): Keep Rolling With Rudy Gobert

Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Tyrese Haliburton has put together a tremendous season in his first full year with the Pacers. He’s averaging 20.2 points, 11.0 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game, good for an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been even better of late, averaging 1.46 DraftKings points per minute over the past month while scoring at least 58.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.

Haliburton draws a tough matchup Monday vs. the Heat, but this game still stands out as one of the best of the day for fantasy purposes. The 228.5-point total is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, while the Heat are just three-point road favorites. Games with high totals and low spreads tend to be the best targets for DFS.

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Value

Jaylen Nowell has been one of the best per-minute producers for his price tag all season. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.91 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He has the potential to pick up a few additional minutes Monday with Jordan McLaughlin doubtful, and his $4,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

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Fast Break

Marcus Smart never seems to get the attention he deserves in DFS. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel, and the lone exception was a blowout win where he played just 25.7 minutes. He’s increased his production to 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models.

Luka Doncic is still ridiculously pricy on DraftKings, but his $12,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. On a slate with no Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, or Joel Embiid, no one can match Doncic’s upside. His ceiling projection leads the way on FanDuel by more than 13 points.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

D’Angelo Russell finally failed to pay off his salary in his last contest, but only by the slimmest of margins. He finished with 35.25 DraftKings points at $7,300, snapping a streak of eight straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. He scored the ball well in that contest, but he struggled to just one rebound and three assists in the peripheral categories. Russell has averaged 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game this season, so expect him to perform better in those areas on Monday.

This game also stands out as the clear top target on Monday’s slate. The Blazers rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency, and the Timberwolves play at the third-fastest pace. That means they should get plenty of opportunities to take advantage of Portland’s poor defense. Overall, Russell stands out as a safe investment with some upside.

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Value

Bogdan Bogdanovic returned to the Hawks’ lineup just five games ago, and there is a chance that he rests on the second leg of a back-to-back. However, if he’s in the lineup, he stands out as one of the best values of the day.

The Hawks are currently dealing with injuries to Dejounte Murray and John Collins, which has allowed Bogdanovic to take on a massive role of late. He’s posted back-to-back games with at least 28 points, and he posted a 31.7% usage rate in his last contest. He’s finished with at least 42.5 DraftKings points in both games, and there’s no reason to expect a ton of regression Monday vs. the Grizzlies. Memphis has a solid defense, but they’ve also played at the sixth-fastest pace this season. Atlanta is also above average in that department, so this game should feature plenty of possessions.

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Fast Break

Jaylen Brown is another elite target for the Celtics on FanDuel. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. Brown has been an outstanding value for the Celtics of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games.

Trent Forrest is currently projected for 28 minutes at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He’s not the most exciting per-minute producer, but that’s a ton of playing time for someone priced nearly at the minimum. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.79 (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It’s taken nearly 30 games, but we’re finally at a point where we can consider Kawhi Leonard in DFS. The Clippers have been extremely careful with his minutes this season, but he’s played at least 30.2 minutes in back-to-back games. Leonard also posted a usage rate of 30.0% in one of those contests, but he’s struggled as a scorer in back-to-back games. He’s just 9-28 from the field in those contests, so with some improvement on Monday, he has a chance to return value at his current price tag. The Celtics are not the same defensive juggernaut they have been in the past, so this is a good spot to target the former Finals MVP.

Leonard is particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

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Value

Deni Avdija has seen a nice boost in value for the shorthanded Wizards recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three. He’s seen all the playing time he can handle over that stretch, logging at least 38.6 minutes in three straight games. Avdija has also increased his production to 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s simply too cheap at $4,900. He’s one of the best values of the day.

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Fast Break

Kyle Anderson continues to get the job done for the Timberwolves. He’s scored at least 32.4 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he should continue to take advantage of his increased playing time.

Ja Morant is questionable for the Grizzlies, so there’s a chance that he won’t be in the lineup vs. the Hawks. That would give Dillon Brooks a significant boost. He’s posted a 31.8% usage rate with Morant and Desmond Bane off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Wizards are currently playing without Bradley Beal, which has opened up some extra scoring responsibilities for Kyle Kuzma. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 33.9% in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 44.25 DraftKings points in all three contests. Kuzma has also displayed some upside as a rebounder, and he ripped down 12 boards in his last contest. He finished with 58.5 DraftKings points in that outing, so he has plenty of upside at his current salary.

The team has also listed Monte Morris as questionable for Monday’s matchup vs. the Nets, and his absence would give Kuzma even more appeal. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.1% with Morris and Beal off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute.

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Value

Brandon Clarke has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.7 on DraftKings. Clarke has also been a quality fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. He’s not expected to see a ton of playing time, but he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet in less than 25 minutes. He’s an excellent target on DraftKings, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

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Fast Break

Sticking with the Grizzlies, Jaren Jackson Jr. would be worth heavy consideration if Morant is unavailable. He’s seen a team-high +10.5% usage rate with Morant and Bane off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.63 DraftKings points per minute. Jackson also got up to around 30 minutes in his last outing, so he would have significant upside vs. the Hawks.

Zach Collins has seen a nice boost in playing time for the shorthanded Spurs recently. He’s logged at least 27.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 21.5 FanDuel points in each. Collins has averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s still a bit too cheap at $5,200.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Rudy Gobert has struggled to make an impact in his first year in Minnesota. His average of 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game are his lowest marks since 2017-18, while his average of 1.3 blocks is his worst mark since his rookie season. Gobert has averaged just 35.3 DraftKings points per game, which represents a 6.5-point drop from his final year with the Jazz.

However, Gobert has picked things up since the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s racked up at least 39.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s had at least 47.75 DraftKings points in two of them. Gobert is in a potential smash spot Monday vs. the Blazers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season.

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Value

The big question with Charles Bassey is how many minutes he will see on a given night. If he can get to 20 minutes, he has the chance to provide excellent value at his current price tag. He’s done that in two of his past four games, and he’s delivered at least 28.25 DraftKings points in both contests. Bassey has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes. The status of Jeremy Sochan will be important to monitor, with the rookie big man currently listed as questionable. If he’s out of the lineup, fire up Bassey with confidence.

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Fast Break

Clint Capela has been an insane value on FanDuel of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.44 over that time frame. That said, his salary has actually decreased over that stretch. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, making him one of the strongest options at the position.

Kristaps Porzingis leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he also owns a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s increased his production to 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and like Kuzma, he’s been asked to do a bit more scoring with Beal sidelined recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, and he’s scored at least 51.3 FanDuel points in five of them.