The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $11,000 DraftKings
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead the league with a career-high 32.4 points per game while shooting 52.8% from the field. Chet Holmgren remains out and Jalen Williams is questionable to play tonight with a wrist injury. Keep an eye on Williams’ status because him being out would provide a boost for Gilgeous-Alexander. With Holmgren and Williams off the floor this season, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with a +5.52% usage rate increase and a +9.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
For this matchup against the Bucks, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the slate in projected usage rate and ranks third in projected ceiling. The Thunder are 20-3 at home this year and are double-digit home favorites tonight, implied for 122 points. This is a fantastic spot for Gilgeous-Alexander that could get even better.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado at Denver Nuggets – $4,800 DraftKings
Jose Alvarado was the main beneficiary when Dejounte Murray suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last game. Alvarado started the second half and finished the game playing 30 minutes. He scored 20 points while adding six assists, three rebounds, one steal, and one block for 37.75 DraftKings points. Projected to start and play 32 minutes, Alvarado leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus.
This has been a lost year for the Pelicans who have a 12-37 record with five-straight losses. They are double-digit road underdogs against the Nuggets. However, this matchup is tied with the highest total on the slate at 241.5 points. Being priced under $5,000, Alvarado is an incredible way to get cheap exposure to this game environment. He is currently leading this eight-game slate in projected ownership tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane vs. San Antonio Spurs – $7,900 DraftKings
Ja Morant has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, and we have been given no status update for tonight’s game. Assuming that Morant is out again, Desmond Bane will be the ceiling shooting guard to target. In his first game without Morant, Bane was four assists shy of a triple-double, finishing with 24 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists. His last game, Bane nearly had another double-double with 22 points and nine rebounds. If Morant is ruled out, Bane will continue to be a focal point in the Grizzlies’ offense.
The Grizzlies have the second-best record in the Western Conference and are five-point home favorites tonight with the second-highest implied total at 123.5 points. Bane is shooting a career-best 49.8% from the field this season, averaging 17.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. He is a decent play at $7,900 if Morant is playing, but it would be one of the best mid-range options if Morant is unable to play.
Top Value: Keon Ellis at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,500 DraftKings
The Kings were one of many teams that made a splash this past weekend ahead of the trade deadline. The main pieces were sending De’Aaron Fox to the Spurs, Kevin Huerter to the Bulls, and received Zach LaVine. With so many moving pieces the Kings will look to guard Keon Ellis to start and play 30+ minutes tonight. Ellis has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position and only costs $3,500.
Ellis has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer this season but has played the most minutes on the team when Fox and Huerter are not on the floor. Most of Ellis’ production comes from his perimeter shooting. He is shooting 42% from behind the arc, while over 70% of his field goal attempts come from distance. The Timberwolves are a difficult matchup, but Ellis will have the opportunity to pay off his cheap price tag.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey Murphy at Denver Nuggets – $7,800 DraftKings
Trey Murphy is coming off back-to-back ceiling performances for the Pelicans. He has averaged 36 points and 53.1 DraftKings points per game over his last two games while shooting an absurd 75.7% from the field and 61.9% from behind the arc. Not only is Dejounte Murray out, but so are Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones. In his fourth year in the league, Murphy is averaging a career-high 22.1 points per game.
The best way to attack the Nuggets defense is on the perimeter. They are allowing 38.8 3-point attempts per game, which is tied for the seventh-highest in the league. Opponents are shooting 36% from behind the arc, which sets up perfectly for Murphy tonight. If the Pelicans want to keep this game close, it will need to be a huge game from Murphy. He has the highest projected ceiling for small forwards tonight.
Top Value: DeMar DeRozan at Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,300 DraftKings
DeMar DeRozan has seen a major decrease in his peripherals for his first year with the Kings, averaging just 3.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. However, his scoring of 21.5 points per game now leads the team with De’Aaron Fox‘s departure. With Fox and Kevin Huerter off the floor this season, DeRozan has a +7.24% usage rate and a +9.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Now would be a fantastic time for a ceiling game.
DeRozan has recorded a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games but has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus tonight. His $6,300 price tag is the lowest it has been all season. He is projected to play 36 minutes and have a near 30% usage rate. The Timberwolves rank sixth in defensive rating this season, but the Kings are only 4.5-point road underdogs. This is a great chance to get exposure to a depleted team.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at OKC Thunder – $11,800 DraftKings
The Bucks have lost three straight games, but it has not been due to Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak during that time has averaged 34.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and six assists per game while shooting 64.7% from the field. He has recorded over 60 DraftKings points in each game. For the season, Giannis ranks second in scoring and fifth in rebounds, averaging a 31.8-point and 12.3-rebound double-double.
The Thunder are the most difficult matchup in the league. They rank first in both defensive rating and points allowed per game in the paint. Giannis is matchup-proof, but this spot against the Thunder is bringing down his projected ownership. Most gamers are projected to flock to Nikola Jokic, and rightfully so. However, Giannis has been on a tear recently and deserves consideration for a top-tier pay-up option.
Top Value: Michael Porter Jr. vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $5,900 DraftKings
Nuggets’ teammates Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. rank first and second among power forwards in projected Plus/Minus for this eight-game slate. The ladder draws the slight edge due to how well he has played recently and having the higher projected ceiling tonight. Porter Jr. is coming off a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double and has averaged 34.75 DraftKings points per game in his last two contests.
Porter Jr. has been extremely efficient this year, shooting 51.2% from the field and 40.1% from behind the arc. He is averaging 18 points and 6.4 rebounds per game and has displayed a ceiling worth getting exposure to with seven double-doubles. The Pelicans rank 28th in rebounding percentage at 48%, so this is a good spot for Porter Jr. to record another double-double. He is a little too cheap at his $5,900 salary.

NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $12,300 DraftKings
Leading the slate in projected ceiling by 13 fantasy points is the great Nikola Jokic. He is coming off his seventh triple-double in his last 10 games with 28 points, 17 assists, and 13 rebounds, accumulating 83.25 DraftKings points. The Nuggets have climbed to fourth in the Western Conference standings, and Jokic is averaging a triple-double for the first time in his career. He is the best player to target on every slate.
The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive rating, 28th in rebounding percentage, and 29th in points allowed in the paint at 52.8 per game. In his only game against the Pelicans this season, Jokic recorded yet another triple-double with 27 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists while shooting 11-for-20 from the field and 2-for-3 from downtown. This is an elite matchup for the best player on the slate. Do not get cute, play Jokic.
Top Value: Jonas Valanciunas at Charlotte Hornets – $5,800 DraftKings
With Alex Sarr still out, the Wizards will rely on Jonas Valanciunas to play more minutes than what he is accustomed to. Valanciunas is coming off a double-double where he recorded 13 points and 10 rebounds against the Timberwolves elite defense in 30 minutes. The Wizards won for just the seventh time all year. He is projected to play 26 minutes tonight and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position behind Jokic. It helps that the Hornets have a big man to go against with center Mark Williams.
The Hornets have been a mediocre interior defense all season and have allowed 60 points per game in the paint over their last three games. Valanciunas’ salary is still under $6,000 making him a strong value play in all lineup builds. The center position is loaded, but Valanciunas is worth getting exposure to.