The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,200 DraftKings
Despite being $1,600 cheaper than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Damian Lillard leads the slate with the highest projected ceiling at the point guard position tonight. He is one of several Bucks’ players who looks phenomenal for this nine-game slate. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for the next week, and Khris Middleton has been traded to the Wizards. With those two starters off the floor this season, Lillard leads the team with a +5.93% usage rate increase and a +7.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Giannis has missed each of the last three games, and Lillard has played incredibly, being the top option. During that stretch, Lillard is averaging a double-double with 31.7 points, 10 assists, 6.7 rebounds, and 59.7 DraftKings points per game with a 33.1% usage rate. He is a great play in all lineup builds tonight.
Top Value: AJ Green vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,200 DraftKings
Sticking with the Bucks’ backcourt, AJ Green is a player that we need to save salary on this slate. Priced near the stone minimum at $3,200, Green will have more than enough time to pay off his cheap price tag in his 24 projected minutes. Green’s fantasy production has been boom-or-bust all season long, but he is coming off his last game scoring double-digit points for the 13th time this season. His inconsistent play is mainly due to having nearly 85% of his field goal attempts coming from behind-the-arc shots this season.
The Warriors’ defense has been middle of the road, defending the perimeter and allowing opponents to shoot 35.9% from downtown. Green has made at least two 3-pointers in six of his last 10 games and is shooting a career-best 44.3% from distance. A few 3-pointers made tonight may be enough to pay off his price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox at Washington Wizards – $8,300 DraftKings
With point guard and shooting guard eligibility, De’Aaron Fox is a strong pay-up option on this slate, mainly due to the elite matchup against the Wizards. This season the Wizards rank fourth in pace and 29th in defensive rating. They are allowing a league-high 121.6 points per game with opponents shooting 47.6% from the field. The Spurs are double-digit favorites, implied for a slate-high 124 points tonight.
Fox has only played three games for the Spurs since being acquired at the trade deadline. In his first game, Fox erupted for 24 points and 13 assists. However, last game was the first time all season where Fox failed to score double-digit points. Against a difficult Magic defense, Fox shot 3-for-11, scoring only nine points. Which Fox shows up is anyone’s guess, but this is a great matchup for a ceiling performance.
Top Value: Bilal Coulibaly vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,200 DraftKings
Staying in the same matchup, Wizards’ second-year pro Bilal Coulibaly is a fantastic value play in all formats. Coulibaly has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position tonight. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, averaging 16.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, two steals, and 37.9 DraftKings points per game during that time. His salary has been boosted to $6,200, but Coulibaly is a fantastic mid-range option. The Wizards are basically the Coulibaly and Jordan Poole show.
The Wizards are 11.5-point home underdogs, but this game has a 236.5-point total. Even though the Wizards have a league-worst 9-45 record, this is a favorable matchup against the Spurs who rank 21st in defensive rating this season. The Wizards have not won a home game since January 1st, but even in a loss, Coulibaly has shown he can provide value. He is projected to play 36 minutes with a 23% usage rate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Miami Heat – $10,000 DraftKings
Jayson Tatum is coming off his second 40-point game of the season against the Warriors, where he shot 13-for-26 from the field and 7-for-14 from downtown. He added six rebounds and four assists, accumulating 56.5 DraftKings points. Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the two biggest question marks on this slate. They are both questionable to play with injuries. Jrue Holiday is already ruled out, and if Tatum or Brown are also ruled out, that would change the landscape of this slate. Make sure to keep an eye on their status.
Assuming Tatum is good to go, he will receive a significant boost with Holiday out. He has posted a team-high +3.14% usage rate increase with Holiday off the floor, and he jumps to +8.68% when Brown is also out of the lineup. This is a great spot for Tatum that could look even better if Brown is also unable to play.
Top Value: Max Christie vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,000 DraftKings
Max Christie has been an unsung hero in the massive Lakers and Mavericks trade. In his three games since joining the Mavericks, Christie has shot a blistering 51.6% from the field and 66.7% from behind the arc averaging a career-high 17.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. He has scored 15+ points in each game with a respectable 20.1% usage rate. Best part is Christie is still only $5,000 with dual eligibility.
Similar to Tatum, keep an eye on Christie’s status. He is questionable to play with a shoulder injury, but that has not slowed him down one bit. The Mavericks are also playing without Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively, while PJ Washington is also questionable. They are still one-point home favorites playing in the best game environment on the slate that has a 237.5-point total. If Christie plays, he is an elite value play.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,300 DraftKings
It has been a while since Paolo Banchero has reached his salary-based expectations. He has recorded seven consecutive games with a negative Plus/Minus, which has dropped his salary down to $8,300. That drop is significant, especially with Magic point guard Jalen Suggs still doubtful to play tonight. This is a great matchup for Banchero to get back on track against a Hawks interior defense that has been pitiful.
The Hawks rank in the middle of the pack in defensive rating and rebounding percentage but have allowed 50 points per game in the paint, which is tied for the sixth-highest in the league. Banchero has not faced the Hawks yet this season, but last year in three meetings he averaged 26 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. This is a matchup worth exploiting for Banchero, especially at his recent drop in price.
Top Value: Kyle Kuzma vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,300 DraftKings
Kyle Kuzma started last game for the Bucks and delivered with a stat-stuffing performance. He finished the game with 13 points, eight rebounds, five assists, one steal, and one block. Despite shooting a poor 5-13 from the field, Kuzma still finished with 33.5 DraftKings points. He is projected to start again with Giannis out and will play around 35 minutes. Priced at $5,300, Kuzma is a strong value play in all formats.
Kuzma currently has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is drawing close to 30% projected ownership. Despite his salary jumping to $5,300, Kuzma is still one of the best value plays on the slate. It would not be shocking to see a bump in usage rate either, especially when this is a back-to-back for the Bucks. Kuzma is one of many Bucks’ players that is worth getting exposure to on this slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $12,700 DraftKings
This is the fourth straight game that Nikola Jokic has been priced at $12,700 or higher. Given his play this season, it is hard to imagine him getting any cheaper. Jokic leads the league in DraftKings points and also ranks in the top three in points, rebounds, and assists per game. This is the first season that Jokic is averaging a triple-double, and he is doing so by averaging a career-high 29.6 points per game, while shooting 57.5% from the field and 46.2% from downtown. He will continue to be the best pay-up play.
The Nuggets lost to the Trail Blazers 126-124 in their earlier meeting, but they are 9.5-point favorites at home tonight. In that loss, Jokic scored 34 points shooting 13-for-18 from the field but failed to capture double-digit rebounds or assists. The Trail Blazers have been a relatively difficult matchup for opposing big men, but Jokic is still worth getting exposure to, especially when he is drawing only 5% ownership.
Top Value: Bobby Portis vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,300 DraftKings
The last Bucks player to target is power forward and center-eligible Bobby Portis. The veteran big man is currently projected for the highest Plus/Minus and ownership at nearly 50%. Over his last three games without Giannis, Portis has erupted for an average of 22.3 points, 15 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He has recorded a double-double in each game and averaged a massive 55.4 DraftKings points per game.
With Giannis and Middleton off the floor this season, Portis has a +4.17% usage rate increase and a +8.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season. The Warriors have been a difficult matchup for opposing big men, but Portis is playing too well to ignore, and without Giannis, this is a spot worth targeting. At a mid-range salary of $6,300, Portis is an incredible play in all lineup builds. He will be a staple in cash game contests.
